Disturbed Weather emerging West Africa (Is Invest 93L)

[ninel conde]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/i ... 7&prod=irn

im keeping an eye on this disturbance. will the models latch onto it and get the CV season started with a healthy system?

[Hurricane_Luis]

From the guys that do the Pouches, This T-wave is now classified as P22L

[ninel conde]

hopefuly it ends up better than 16 and 17, lol

[cycloneye]

Conde,I modified the title to not have a latitude and longitude position as that changes constantly. Is better to have identified a specific area rather than a position. By the way pouch 22L is not this area as it is for the one in front.

[ninel conde]

thanks.

[cycloneye]

Here is a saved image from 1:00 UTC or 9 PM EDT.

[ninel conde]

it still looks pretty good but no model develops it.

[cycloneye]

Is a big disturbance that we are dealing here that will emerge West Africa in two days. Let's see how it does once it hits the water.Still no pouch designation but I suspect that on Tuesday it will be Pouch 23L.

[Siker]

Both the 00z GFS and NAVGEM try to develop this but never bring it below 1007mb.
Meanwhile, the Canadian has a 980mb storm north of the Caribbean at 240 hours.

[Hammy]

GFS looks like it develops it briefly when it moves off, which is the first time I've seen for quite awhile the GFS showing anything in the MDR within the one week window.

[cycloneye]

After looking at the images from the past few hours it appears that two disturb areas have joined and now we have a well organized system emerging the African Coast not designated a Tropical Wave yet.

[hurricaneCW]

It's only a matter of time one of these waves start to develop, even if models don't immediately show development. Things aren't as dry as they were weeks ago and conditions will gradually improve as we start getting into the meat of the season.

[Hurricaneman]

The 12zGFS somewhat develops this system as a 1012 low at 108hrs

hr 126 1009 low

hr 141 1010 low 17N 43W and the 500mb steering pattern would be west to north of due west

hr 156 1012 low 16.5N 47W and there does seem to be small weaknesses in the ridge to the north

hr 168 1012 low 16.5N 48W steering currents collapse

hr 186 1012 low 14N 52W the ridge weakly builds but its location makes no sense

hr 192 1013 low 19N 53W the low location makes more sense here and there is weak steering currents

hr 216 trough develops and takes this to the fishes

so in conclusion the 12zGFS hardly does anything with this and takes this out to sea at 60W

The 6ZGFS showed this getting near the SE coast at 384hrs so let the windshield wiping begin

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[cycloneye]

A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNTIL THE WAVE ENTERS A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT BY THIS WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT... OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AND THEN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 MPH.

[CrazyC83]

This looks like the SAL-sucker. I don't see it developing, but anything behind it would have a clearer pathway to really taking off.

[Alyono]

This looks like the SAL-sucker. I don't see it developing, but anything behind it would have a clearer pathway to really taking off.

Again, SAL comes from the EAST, not the west. If anything, the trailing wave is what blocks the SAL, not the leading wave

This CANNOT suck out the SAL... since the SAL will merely surge behind the NEXT wave

not sure why many continuously mix this up

[cycloneye]

Something that will be in favor of this wave will be a wet MJO arriving to the basin.

[ninel conde]

This looks like the SAL-sucker. I don't see it developing, but anything behind it would have a clearer pathway to really taking off.

Again, SAL comes from the EAST, not the west. If anything, the trailing wave is what blocks the SAL, not the leading wave

This CANNOT suck out the SAL... since the SAL will merely surge behind the NEXT wave

not sure why many continuously mix this up

thanks for explaining that.

[cycloneye]

Is Invest 93L,Go here