9 Years since Charley....

[MGC]

Yep, a quick 9 years since Charley RI off the Florida west coast. From a Cat-2 to almost a Cat-5 in just a few hours. Hope something like that never happens again......MGC

[CrazyC83]

Charley seemed to be the exception to the rule for most of the recent storms, which had a tendency to weaken or enlarge as they approached land. Charley was the one true wind event of the last 10-15 years.

It also eliminated the "skinny line" mindset as every prediction was for a Tampa landfall (and that would have been horrific sending a Cat 4-5 into a major metropolitan area; in reality, Tampa didn't get anything) but really, it was a very close call within the margin of error for even short-term forecasts (the center went between Lakeland and Haines City along US 17 which is just 40 miles from downtown Tampa). The angle of the coast + the very small size of the storm magnified the theory it was a missed forecast.

[Sanibel]

At this time 9 years ago I was in Miami at a relative's wondering if the house had been Andrewed. Near miss but the lanai had been ripped-off and blown away and some clapboard was gone. The roof vent had its cover torn away leaving the vent hole open to the sky. I put a big plastic tub under it in the attic. The neighbor lost all his tin in two big sections from a small tornado. His house was soaked through suffering serious water damage. The other neighbor on the opposite side didn't get a stratch. The trees took a big hit. A black olive with a thick trunk was snapped off 8 feet above the ground. A Royal Palm was laying across the street. I saw concrete power poles snapped like matchsticks.

[Alyono]

Charley likely intensified baroclinic energy from the trough just to its west

One thing worth noting, that same trough "saved" Orlando. Right after landfall, Cjarley was hit by strong shear and it weakened much faster than it otherwise would have as it moved to Orlando. Being inland for about 5 hours priot to hitting Orlando, winds should have been around 100KT instead of 75 KT when the eyewall moved through Orlando

[Killjoy12]

True - but didn't it also accelerate it much more quickly towards Orlando than one would normally expect? I thought it was moving in the 30mph range as it approached?

[CrazyC83]

Charley likely intensified baroclinic energy from the trough just to its west

One thing worth noting, that same trough "saved" Orlando. Right after landfall, Cjarley was hit by strong shear and it weakened much faster than it otherwise would have as it moved to Orlando. Being inland for about 5 hours priot to hitting Orlando, winds should have been around 100KT instead of 75 KT when the eyewall moved through Orlando

It took about 5 hours for it to get from Punta Gorda (2030) to Orlando (0130). I think you might be right that a brief period of shear weakened Charley a bit more around 2200 to 0100. The rate of weakening slowed to virtually nothing between 0130 in Orlando and 0400 when it went back over water (intensity at that time 70 kt).

My best guess for intensity hour by hour:

2000 (out of Sanibel) - 130 kt / 941mb (per Recon)
2100 (clear of Punta Gorda) - 120 kt / 943mb (pressure from chasers)
2200 (approaching Arcadia) - 110 kt / 951mb (pure guess)
2300 (near Wauchula) - 100 kt / 960mb (pure guess)
0000 (past Fort Meade) - 85 kt / 966mb (higher than BT, adjusted based on Orlando data)
0100 (near Kissimmee) - 75 kt / 972mb (based on Orlando data later)
0200 (near Altamonte Springs) - 75 kt / 977mb (based on Sanford data)
0300 (near Lake Helen) - 70 kt / 985mb (based somewhat on Recon data later)
0400 (near Ormond Beach, entering water) - 70 kt / 991mb (based on Recon data)

[HurricaneBill]

Interestingly, Charley was the first hurricane to make landfall on South Carolina since Hugo in 1989. A few weeks later, South Carolina would be struck by Hurricane Gaston.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I recall watching this on CNN, shocked at just how rapidly this storm deepened. Wow, hard to believe it has been nearly a decade.

[BUCMAN48]

I lived and still live in Tampa when Charley was making his way up the coast- I never will forget looking at the NWS forecast
saying Winds of 90KTS to be expected and listen to Channel 8 meterologist Steve jervey nervously say that Charley has intensified from a cat 2 to a get 5 . How a slight change in the synoptics, caused it to go alittle bit south and contibuted
to the false belief that a Hurricane can't happen in Tampa because of the mythical shield that covers us that many believe to this day. Complacency due to this and other near misses worries me that when the real deal is upon us people will not take caution. A day I will never forget!

[BUCMAN48]

I lived and still live in Tampa when Charley was making his way up the coast- I never will forget looking at the NWS forecast
saying Winds of 90KTS to be expected and listen to Channel 8 meterologist Steve jervey nervously say that Charley has intensified from a cat 2 to a Cat 5 . How a slight change in the synoptics, caused it to go alittle bit south and contibuted
to the false belief that a Hurricane can't happen in Tampa because of the mythical shield that covers us that many believe to this day. Complacency due to this and other near misses worries me that when the real deal is upon us people will not take caution. A day I will never forget!

[gatorcane]

Yes I lived in the Tampa area also when Charley was threatening. Alot of models had it going right up Pinellas County as a CAT 5.

It finally looked like it was Tampa Bay's time.

I remember watching the satellite and radar loops and noticing that it was moving more NNE instead of N in the SE GOM.

It ended up missing the Tampa Bay area comfortably to the south and basically Tampa Bay saw little wind and little rain from the event.

I can't believe how lucky we got with that.

Since Charley there really hasn't been in a real threat for the area from the Gulf.

You have to go all the way back to 1921 to find a major hurricane that struck the Tampa Bay area:



Here is Charley's track. How close it was...

[JtSmarts]

I remember that day well on s2k, we were freaking out about the storm's rapid intensification and I remember many of the Pro Mets including Derek Ortt were a bit upset that the NHC didn't upgrade Charley to Cat 3 at the 11 AM Advisory.

[CrazyC83]

I remember that day well on s2k, we were freaking out about the storm's rapid intensification and I remember many of the Pro Mets including Derek Ortt were a bit upset that the NHC didn't upgrade Charley to Cat 3 at the 11 AM Advisory.

They put it at 95 kt at that time, and only a short time later (around 1515Z) Recon found winds supporting a 110 kt intensity (used for the 1 pm intermediate as they hadn't completed the next pass in time). Then the shocker came right afterward when they found winds to support 125 kt at the surface. Interestingly, at that point the pressure was 954mb and the landfall pressure was 941mb...so maybe the 130 kt landfall intensity was too low? Not saying Cat 5, but given the flight level winds and trends, 135 kt might be more likely.