Tropical Wave Approaching Western Caribbean

[Gustywind]

The latest TWD from 8AM mentionned a weak low pressure at 12N 46W. Let's see if this feature increasing when approaching the islands, even if this 1012 low pressure seems to have lost some punch this morning...

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N15W CONTINUING ALONG 9N20W TO 10N27W THEN RESUMES
SW OF T.S. ERIN NEAR 13N41W TO A WEAK 1012 MB LOW NEAR 12N46W.
THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE LOW NEAR 12N48W AND CONTINUES ALONG
11N55W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 14W-22W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-13N
BETWEEN 40W-52W.

[Gustywind]

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO
7N19W 10N34W 11N40W...TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 12N47W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 12N47W TO 10N54W AND 8N58W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN
SIERRA LEONE AND GUINEA FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 12W AND 14W
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 21W AND 23W...AND FROM 8N
TO 11N BETWEEN 52W AND 55W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 16W AND 21W...AND FROM 6N TO 11N
BETWEEN 55W AND 61W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM
8N TO 13N BETWEEN 43W AND 52W.

[Gustywind]

8 AM Discussion.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E ATLC OVER
THE 1007 MB LOW/TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 12.5N16W CONTINUING ALONG
6N25W TO 8N35W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO NEAR
10N46W. A WEAK 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 12N50W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90/120
NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 18W-27W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN
43W-54W.

[Gustywind]

2 PM Discussion.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E ATLC OVER
THE 1009 MB LOW/TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 12N17W CONTINUING ALONG
06N25W TO 07N34W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 07N35W AND CONTINUES TO
10N47W...THEN RESUMES WEST OF A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 12N53W AND
CONTINUES TO 11N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE ALREADY DISCUSSED...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
AND TSTMS ARE FROM 08N-14N BETWEEN 45W-61W.

[RainbowAppleJackDash]

Does this become humberto then
Or a different name
In the future?

[Gustywind]

Does this become humberto then
Or a different name
In the future?

That's difficult to know because of 94L could be a name ( futur Fernand? should it verfies too !) during the next couple of days. Better thing we have to do IMO is to wait and see how the situation evolves in vicinity of this weak low pressure. Does not seems to organize with my untrained eyes.

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON AUG 19 2013



...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 20N16W TO
10N23W TO 07N30W TO 07N40W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N40W TO 11N50W TO 15N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS E OF 35W.
FROM 03N-08N BETWEEN 27W-32W. A 1011 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE
ITCZ NEAR 13N52W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOW
CENTER.

[CrazyC83]

What is that low near 39N 57W as well?

[Gustywind]

2 AM Discussion.

No mention of this low pressure.

[Gustywind]

8 PM Discussion


A 1011 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE ITCZ NEAR 12N56W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF BARBADOS FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 58W-
60W.

[ROCK]

I see it....naked swirl approaching the islands now....not much convection with it but I think the carib is getting juicier as we saw today around PR.....Its closing in fast on this left over moisture...

RAMM has a floater on it....second scan down

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

[ROCK]

someone needs to change the thread title as this will be in the Eastern carib by morning...

[Gustywind]

8 AM Discussion.


FINALLY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 12N58W TO 16N59W CONTINUES TO PROVIDE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS S OF 18N BETWEEN 57W-65W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS LIKELY ENHANCED DUE TO MARGINAL MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE LOCATED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

[tropicwatch]

Look at 10N 40W, if there wasn't so much dry air around.

[RainbowAppleJackDash]

This could become Gabrielle or humberto by next weekend if conditions start improving. I'm not sure what else though.

[floridasun78]

This could become Gabrielle or humberto by next weekend if conditions start improving. I'm not sure what else though.

i dont see this become Gabrielle too much dry air

[Gustywind]

By the way moderators, the title should be edite: Low pressure in Eastern Carib. Just my opinion and no more. Thanks

[Hurricaneman]

This could become Gabrielle or humberto by next weekend if conditions start improving. I'm not sure what else though.

i dont see this become Gabrielle too much dry air

dont get ahead of yourselves, we don't even have Fernand yet

[Gustywind]

No more mention by the NHC for this feature...

[wxman57]

This is the same wave discussed in the "Tropical Wave in Western Caribbean" thread.