In close development, where has it been?

[OuterBanker]

Had an interesting conversation with one of our customers who happens to be an 83 (yes eighty-three) year old nationally known surfer. He stated that he has never seen the surf so bad as this year. Water has been cold most of the summer with prevailing west winds which flattens the surf. But, most important there have been no storms to create waves. I really didn’t realize this until he had said something. After looking at the records, sure enough we have had no nor’easters, no in close developments, no distant fish storms, nada. Yes, the entire southeast has been record wet for the past couple months, but there has been no threat of clusters of storms developing from a frontal split. I can understand why the Gulf hasn’t developed anything because of the strong troughs that have caused all the rain have prevented any kind of development. But, the southeast coastal region (FL to NC) has been ripe for development. The only reason that I can find for no development is that the fronts just haven’t produced storms with enough energy to spin up. Again this is fairly common in the heat of the summer, the temps are too stable to produce massive tstorms. I think this will probably change in September as we transition into fall producing stronger storms in even warmer waters. The big question will be if the trough splits occur in this region. IMO, I think the US biggest threat will be from storms that form west of 60.

[ninel conde]

its hard to get close in development with a persistent nw flow aloft which is what the east coast has had for just about all of august. look a today, a strong disturbance is flying down in the nw flow to flood many places yet again.