Disturbed weather in Yucatan,moves to SW GOM (Is Invest 95L)

[Frank P]

Northwestern Caribbean seems highly active this morning... something new brewing?

[gatorcane]

Frank P - you just beat me to this thread as I was about ready to start one. It does look suspicious to me. The GFS has been insisting on development next weekend from this area but in the NW Caribbean, not Western Caribbean (perhaps you can edit your title?) Definitely bears watching.

Here we are at 192 hours:


264 hours:

[cycloneye]

Is getting close to the time of year for this area to have tropical activity so let's see what occurs.

Note=Since there is a new thread for the NW Caribbean area,the model scenarios showing development can be posted here instead of the global model runs thread.

[Frank P]

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/69/ski5.jpg/

[gatorcane]

Touching on what gatorcane just posted. here is the 06Z GFS at 36 hrs. You can see Ingrid moving ashore, but at 51 hrs, it looks like a piece of energy moves SE back in the BOC and low pressure persists, eventually leading to what the GFS shows longer range.

N2FSU, it doesn't look like this GFS system develops from the BOC area. It looks like it is another area of low pressure that develops east of Belize in the NW Caribbean. One thing that should be noted is that while the ECMWF dropped the Gulf system (which did develop from Ingrid's leftover energy in the BOC), it now is showing a reflection heading North in the NW Caribbean here at 192 hours (the orange you see between the Yucatan and NW Caribbean). This run of the ECMWF is actually coming into a little better agreement on the GFS NW Caribbean low scenario:

[SFLcane]

Indeed gatorcane..its approaching that time of the yr were we need to keeps tabs on the caribbean. For now models arent showing anything to strong.

[ROCK]

GFS is quicker with the front this run....whatever this might be might not make it into FL.

[gatorcane]

Rock, it is certainly far out so if it ends up developing in the NW Caribbean still early to say where it goes. I have noticed the GFS keeps wanting to send the area NE next weekend into early next week. In fact every run going back several days has shown the same thing so it has been fairly consistent with the synoptic.

[caneman]

Would be unusual for this time of year for it not to threaten Florida from where it would develop. Later in October or November when the fronts are stronger, I could see. So, overall it looks like the models are in agreeance and on something (unusual it would seem for this year) but I don't by the track this far out.

Of course it is quite likely I don't know what the heck I'm talking about since I'm not a Met.

[caneman]

Rock, it is certainly far out so if it ends up developing in the NW Caribbean still early to say where it goes. I have noticed the GFS keeps wanting to send the area NE next weekend into early next week. In fact every run going back several days has shown the same thing so it has been fairly consistent with the synoptic. The GFS is showing quite a cold front for this time of year swinging through Southeast United States next weekend.

Would be unusual for this time of year for it to be that strong. IF it were to be that strong, you would have to wonder if that is not an early start to a winter type pattern and if there would be any threats to the Gulf or Florida for the rest of the season.

[Hurricaneman]

The 12zGFS shows this area sitting and festering for a while so we could be talking about this next week as its pretty much stationary for 7 days as is pretty common with systems like this

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[gatorcane]

12Z GFS 162 hours from now, showing a low organizing in the NW Caribbean:


216 hours from now shows it going through the FL Straits heading NE:

[gatorcane]

The 12Z GEM develops the NW Caribbean area much sooner than the GFS and sends it NW and into the NW GOM towards Texas. Given that the NW Carib area is showing no signs of organization at this time, I would discount this solution and lean towards the slower GFS:

Here we are at 120 hours:

[psyclone]

I would not be at all surprised if this region spawns several storms between now and the end of October. it's that time of the year, the region is becoming more convectively active and TCHP, which is never lacking in that part of the world, seems even more obnoxious than usual this year. Obviously time will tell but if anything will salvage this underwhelming season, this is the spot to keep an eye on and now is the time to start paying careful attention.

[stormlover2013]

Did y'all see what Larry crosgrove said on Facebook?

[ROCK]

I wouldn't discount the CMC in the med range since it has done very well with Ingrid. In fact it has done very well with cyclone genesis all year. Unlike the GFS and EURO...it has been upgraded..NAVGEM has also done well..

[gatorcane]

The 12Z ECMWF on board with development and shows basically the same thing as the GFS now:

Development begins at 144 hours:


Passes through South Florida / FL Straits at 216 hours:


240 Hours Deepening Further and heading NE:

[ROCK]

The 12z GEM shows something impacting the mod Texas coast at 126hr...could be what's in the Carib now as source region.

Even the NAVGEM is showing a big sucker in the GOM at 168hr

[blp]

Low resolution euro inline with the GFS

[hurricaneCW]

Very interesting in what the Euro shows, models have been hinting at this for a while.