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East of tobago
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
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hurricanes1234
- Category 5
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- Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
- Location: Trinidad and Tobago
Re: East of tobago
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 36N65W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT 32N44W TO 26N50W TO 21N56W. A SHEAR LINE CONTINUES TO E CUBA AT 20N74W. A GALE IS W OF THE STATIONARY FRONT N OF 28N BETWEEN 45W-60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1036 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 47N15W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 30N35W. IN THE TROPICS... A SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 14N58W TO 9N59W. A 1009 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE TROUGH AT 11N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN 20W-40W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A 1009 MB LOW TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT NEAR 26N51W WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW TO BE NEAR TRINIDAD IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.
A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 36N65W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT 32N44W TO 26N50W TO 21N56W. A SHEAR LINE CONTINUES TO E CUBA AT 20N74W. A GALE IS W OF THE STATIONARY FRONT N OF 28N BETWEEN 45W-60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1036 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 47N15W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 30N35W. IN THE TROPICS... A SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 14N58W TO 9N59W. A 1009 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE TROUGH AT 11N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN 20W-40W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A 1009 MB LOW TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT NEAR 26N51W WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW TO BE NEAR TRINIDAD IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.
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PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.
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Hurricanehink
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Re: East of tobago
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/IN1/flash-vis-long.html - has a floater. Can see the circulation and convection
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hurricanes1234
- Category 5
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- Location: Trinidad and Tobago
Re: East of tobago
Nice little cumulonimbus cloud over the center. Doesn't this have a closed circulation already? It looks like a tropical cyclone to me.
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PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.
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northjaxpro
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This has been a very unique feature. It is tiny, but it indeed sure looks like a miniture tropical storm does it? Actually, I am surprised it has survived the shear which has been present down there the past few days.
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Hurricane_Luis
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TXNT28 KNES 171818
TCSNTL
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
B. 17/1745Z
C. 11.9N
D. 59.5W
E. THREE/GOES-E
F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...AFTER BEING DEVOID OF CONVECTION FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS
MORNING CONVECTION HAS RETURNED...IF ONLY BRIEFLY GIVEN THE HIGH SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...AND MEASURES SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN 2/10 FOR A DT OF 1.0. MET
AND PT ARE ALSO 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...TURK
The shear isn't going to stop. 30-50 knots in its Path.
TCSNTL
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
B. 17/1745Z
C. 11.9N
D. 59.5W
E. THREE/GOES-E
F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...AFTER BEING DEVOID OF CONVECTION FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS
MORNING CONVECTION HAS RETURNED...IF ONLY BRIEFLY GIVEN THE HIGH SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...AND MEASURES SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN 2/10 FOR A DT OF 1.0. MET
AND PT ARE ALSO 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...TURK
The shear isn't going to stop. 30-50 knots in its Path.
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hurricanes1234
- Category 5
- Posts: 2907
- Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
- Location: Trinidad and Tobago
Re:
Hurricane_Luis wrote:TXNT28 KNES 171818
TCSNTL
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
B. 17/1745Z
C. 11.9N
D. 59.5W
E. THREE/GOES-E
F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...AFTER BEING DEVOID OF CONVECTION FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS
MORNING CONVECTION HAS RETURNED...IF ONLY BRIEFLY GIVEN THE HIGH SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...AND MEASURES SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN 2/10 FOR A DT OF 1.0. MET
AND PT ARE ALSO 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...TURK
The shear isn't going to stop. 30-50 knots in its Path.
As usual.
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PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.
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wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
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Re: East of tobago
Sort of like 2008's Marco. Small storms can spin up quickly (and spin down quickly).
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hurricanes1234
- Category 5
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Re: East of tobago
wxman57 wrote:Sort of like 2008's Marco. Small storms can spin up quickly (and spin down quickly).
I have a strange feeling this will be a TS in post-season analysis.
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PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.
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TheEuropean
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ozonepete
- Professional-Met
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- Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
- Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY
Re:
TheEuropean wrote:Why isn't this at least an invest?
Corrected: Other than the floater I don't see it getting picked up as tropical, but it sure looks like a TD the last few hours.
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ozonepete
- Professional-Met
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- Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
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Re: East of tobago
It's in an area of very light steering winds but appears to be drifting ENE. Since the shear there looks to be blowing from the west towards the ENE to NE, i.e. in the same direction as the low's motion, that's probably helping keep the convection with the LLC right now. But the shear is godawful down there so I can't possibly see this lasting much longer. But it's pretty cool how this popped up so fast. As wxman57 said, these little ones can spin up really quickly but spin down just as fast.
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christchurchguy
- Tropical Low
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christchurchguy
- Tropical Low
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- Joined: Sat Sep 19, 2009 10:31 am
Re: East of tobago
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Re: East of tobago
I would be highly surprised if this does not at least get mentioned in the next outlook.
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The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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TropicalAnalystwx13
- Category 5
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Maintained convection fairly consistently since this morning and fairly organized at the surface, shocked there has still been no mention from this from NHC or invest on NRL.
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The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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somethingfunny
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It actually has a floater page up and has for several hours, but no Invest number.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... oater.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... oater.html
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I am not a meteorologist, and any posts made by me are not official forecasts or to be interpreted as being intelligent. These posts are just my opinions and are probably silly opinions.
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