5 PM advisory on Fabian=19.1n-57.8w it not pass 68w

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 3:35 pm

http://www.tormenta.net/frame_page.asp? ... v_nt5.html

The new forecast shows that it will not pass the 68w longitud and it will be a fish but Bermuda must watch it.

Colin · #2 Postby **Colin** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 3:39 pm

NOT SO FAST!!!!! The EC can't rule anything out yet...it's still moving WNW.

#3 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 3:41 pm

http://www.tormenta.net/frame_page.asp? ... s_nt5.html

Here is the discussion that says something important at the end.North of the mid atlantic states must watch it.

Stormsfury · #4 Postby **Stormsfury** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 4:03 pm

The discussion, though interesting, isn't a good one.

I could not agree more with DT on this and will just quote this. It's an excellent post.

DT-WxRisk wrote:Regardless of whether Fabin does or does NOT does a threat to the EC... I am shocked at the 5PM disussion. They cite the Ukmet from 12z as reason to shift it to the right.

let see .... It is CLEAR and Obvious now that Fabian is going to pass S of 20 N and 60. CORRECT?

Yet the 12z UKMET says this...
for the next 24 hrs...

00UTC 02.09.2003 19.5N 58.1W
12UTC 02.09.2003 20.5N 60.0W

In other words at 8PM EDT this Monday evening Fabian according to the Ukmet is going to be at 20.5 N and 60.0
ROTFLMAO!!!!
sorry folks... as the Loop from TPC SSD shows and the latest recon that is BS.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Regardless of whether YOu think fabian is a fish or not.... can we all agree that Fabian is NOT going to be at 20.5 N in THREE hrs from Now?

Therefore to use the ukmet as a reference forecasting tool and to ADHERE to it makes NO Sense. IF the Ukmet is going to be that off in 12 hrs.... why give its 72 hr or 120 hr forecast position ANY WEIGHT?

ColdFront77 · #5 Postby **ColdFront77** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 5:50 pm

I agree as well. Doesn't make any sense. Seems as though the National Hurricane Center is being too confident about this systems with other indications of a landfall along any portion of the east coast being a possibility.

Based on ONLY the last 36 hour trajectory, Fabian would be located approximately 400 miles due west of Miami in about 144 hours/6 days from now.

It will obviously take the same exact setup around the system for the storm to move to that location.

This gives us the idea that if it indeed doesn't recurve... Florida to South Carolina have has been threat from the system than North Carolina to New England.

#6 Postby **msbee** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 6:03 pm

can we all agree that Fabian is NOT going to be at 20.5 N in THREE hrs from Now?
stormsfury
just where do you think Fabian will be then?
I'm confused
living in the Northern Leewards (18..1 North,63.1 w)
are we out of the woods or not?

#7 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 6:06 pm

In terms of hurricane force winds and tropical storm force winds for ST Marteen you will not experience those as already the eye has passed 19.1n and you are at 18.5n.But some bands of rain may pass thru that island but the big effect will be the swells that will go to the coast.

Guest · #8 Postby **Guest** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 6:26 pm

Excellent post by DT SF..................That says alot not to mention how that ridge in the Atlantic doesnt look to be in a big hurry to move which if you wanna see it for yourself take a look at a water vapor loop....................Would have to have something drastic occur in the next 24-48 hours to get him moving towards the north.......

If anyone notice as well there is a small ULL just west of FLA in the gulf which seems to be keeping the easterly flow going and from VA south looks like one good battle zone setting up in the TN/OH valley's down into AL and in the Mid Atlantic from MD north........................

Its a matter of which wins and when because as of right now the door remains wide open along the SE coast for Fabian and that will not change untill the battle zone that i mentioned about get shoved to the Coast which i dont see anything strong enough right now upstream to do that except one little possibility comming down into the Northern Plains which looks to be moving more east then south.............................

If or when this little system does get to the battle zone it will if anything affect the northern most part of the battle zone in the Ohio valley and into the Northeast and if anything cause Fabian to stall possibly right by or on the southeast coast!.................................

So imo right now all bets are off but i highly doubt this cane will stay east of 68 or make any sudden turns to the north for the next couple of days atleast if not longer which if i lived in the SE i would not count this system gone!

SacrydDreamz · #9 Postby **SacrydDreamz** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 6:53 pm

cycloneye wrote:http://www.tormenta.net/frame_page.asp?u=http://vortex.plymouth.edu/hur_dir/hur_dis_nt5.html

Here is the discussion that says something important at the end.North of the mid atlantic states must watch it.

It states that the Mid-Atlantic and points northward should watch it..

Just pickin' with ya

#10 Postby **msbee** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 7:05 pm

thanks cycloneye

5 PM advisory on Fabian=19.1n-57.8w it not pass 68w

5 PM advisory on Fabian=19.1n-57.8w it not pass 68w

Who is online