Hurricane Fabian strengthens further just northeast of the Lesser Antillies. Fabian is a very dangerous and strong category 4 hurricane on the siffir simpson hurricane scale.
At 5 PM EDT, the center of powerful and dangerous hurricane Fabian is located near latitude 19.1 north, longitude 57.8 west or about 275 miles ene of barbuda in the northern leeward islands.
Movement is towards the west northwest at 11 mph and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. It is too early to speculate on landfall potential across the southeast or mid atlantic states. The subtropical ridge to the north of the hurricane and the trough moving towards the east central United States will play an important role in where Fabian goes, whether it makes landfall or not. However the threat is still not over for the eastern seaboard as swells will begin moving into the east coast Thursday into Friday. Large battering waves and dangerous rip currents are expected along the entire eastern seaboard this weekend.
The hurricane hunter aircraft reported winds up to 140 knots at flight level, which makes surface winds of 125 knots. Thus maximum sustained winds have increased to 145 mph with higher gusts. This makes Fabian a very dangerous category 4 hurricane on the saffir simpson hurricane scale. Fluctuations in intensity are always expected in major hurricanes and this one is no exception. Fabian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through 120 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward 50 miles from the center while tropical storm force winds extend outward 140 miles.
Minimum central pressure is now 942 mb or 27.82 inches as reported by the recon.
Large swells and very dangerous surf conditions and rip currents will effect the leewards, puerto rico, the us and british Virgin Islands and St Croix over the next day or two.
Meanwhile a tropical wave in the northwest Caribbean has developed convection today and could potentially develop into a tropical entity in the next day or two. Stay tuned!!
Jim
5 PM UPDATE ON FABIAN AND CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE
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It would be a very good thing if this storm does not make a direct hit on the east coast. But the bad news sounds as if there will still be problems with heavy swells and rough water (beach erosion). I can't help but think how much money some of the barrier island communities of NC have spent on beach renourishment the last couple of years!
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