Development in SW GOM? (Is Invest 90L)

[cycloneye]

I think is time to make a thread apart from the models thread as there is a consensus building by the models and some atmospheric players suggesst that tropical development may be possible in BOC or near Yucatan. So post away here the model runs and other information.

[tolakram]

GFS 18Z has it strongest at 159 hrs



Euro delays development and keeps it in the BOC at 192



Then moved is slowly NE by 240 hrs



source: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[Kingarabian]

So 93E is supposed to develop into Boris, Boris crashes into Mexico, remaining moisture gets drawn into the GOM and that fires things up?

[blp]

Yes still some differences between the two models.

Euro: Has more concentrated development in the EPAC which delays getting the energy to the BOC. It actually still has future Boris in the EPAC at 120hrs and then by 144hrs it comes ashore.

GFS: Has much weaker development in the EPAC possibly a depression or weaker and by 96hrs has the bulk of the lowest pressure over the BOC. This allows for the quicker development and faster timeline.

So it comes down to how much development happens in the EPAC which will affect the timeline of what takes place in the BOC.

I am leaning on the Euro more because so far it has done best the past couple of weeks with the evoution of development in this area. The GFS has been too gung ho about developing this and might be too fast.

[SeGaBob]

I would like to think the NHC would start mentioning this with the first TWO tomorrow morning but I doubt they would.

[Alyono]

EC is likely bogus. No way 93E remains stationary for 5 days

[northjaxpro]

I would like to think the NHC would start mentioning this with the first TWO tomorrow morning but I doubt they would.

I would think until we see convection start to build up and become more concentrated and sustained in the BOC / Yucatan area, NHC will then mention first in their tropical weather discussions.

I am thinking with the models gaining more consistency on some potential development by the middle of next week, we may see something pop at that time. Next week may be an interesting week. We will monitor closely of course.

[fci]

I think if they believe development will occur within 5 days; they will mention in terms of "models show.."
I may be wrong but I think they did that last season.

[wxman57]

None of the 52 12Z ECMWF ensemble members indicates any significant low in the Gulf through 10 days. Big difference between EC & GFS.

[wyq614]

I'm not -removed- but although it is later than 9pm the convections between Yucatan and Cuba is still fairly strong, maybe it is starting to develop into something? I'm in Havana so I'm carefully watching its possible development.

[SeGaBob]

I think if they believe development will occur within 5 days; they will mention in terms of "models show.."
I may be wrong but I think they did that last season.

That's the idea behind my post... maybe i'm just too anxious about it.

[cycloneye]

I'm not -removed- but although it is later than 9pm the convections between Yucatan and Cuba is still fairly strong, maybe it is starting to develop into something? I'm in Havana so I'm carefully watching its possible development.

That convection area is not what some models develop. Is going to be in the Bay of Campeche partially from the leftovers of now invest 93E in EPAC.

[bamajammer4eva]

In the past, the NHC has not mentioned pacific invests or named pacific storms in the Atlantic TWO at all unless it crosses into the gulf and becomes invest xxL or an atlantic basin system.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An elongated area of low pressure located over the Bay of Campeche
extends northeastward into the south-central Gulf of Mexico.
Although shower activity is currently disorganized, some slow
development of this nearly stationary disturbance will be possible
over the next several days as environmental conditions become
marginally conducive.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

...

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Hammy]

In all likelihood it was not mentioned prior as they don't issue outlooks prior to hurricane season unless development looks imminent.

[cycloneye]

This is the latest 72 hour graphic from TAFB.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An elongated and nearly stationary area of low pressure located over
the Bay of Campeche extends northeastward into the south-central
Gulf of Mexico. Although shower activity is currently disorganized,
some slow development of this disturbance is possible this week as
environmental conditions become marginally conducive.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[cycloneye]

Both HWRF and GFDL models that are running for EPAC 93E develop in BOC.

[cycloneye]

From the Tampa NWS:

".LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS OFFERING UP A NUMBER OF POSSIBILITIES
INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A HYBRID TROPICAL SYSTEM AFFECTING THE
AREA NEXT WEEKEND. GIVEN THE LARGE DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS...WILL FOCUS ON WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY WITH A
SIGNIFICANT WAITING TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIODS. OVERALL...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A DECREASE IN COLUMN
MOISTURE DURING THE MID WEEK TIME FRAME...WITH COLUMN MOISTURE THEN
INCREASING LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH
DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEK
AND NEXT WEEKEND."

[cycloneye]

NHC puts the yellow circle 3 hours later than the 8 AM TWO.