Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean

[cycloneye]

This wave is a very strong one for early June that has drawn my attention. Even Dr Jeff Masters made a comment about it. But Sal,dry air will not let this wave develop down the road but you never know in the tropics.

A few members of the 00Z GFS ensemble forecast show this wave developing, but none of the European ensemble members do. It is still pretty early to be getting development of tropical waves off the coast of Africa.

Jeff Masters

[northjaxpro]

SAL and climatology are keeping the odds stacked well against this feature developing that far out this early in the season. However, it is interesting to see such a vigourous wave emerging off the coast of Africa. I'll pay closer attention to this region once we get to mid July.

[cycloneye]

I can't believe this but is there. Agree with northjaxpro about climo.

[TheStormExpert]

At this time in the season last year there were strong Tropical Waves moving off of Africa. Even one that was IMO worthy enough to be at least a Tropical Depression! But by July and August that all changed fast! With Chantal, Dorian, Erin, and even Humberto proving to be nothing be weak pathetic TC's struggling to fight the Dry Air/SAL and Shear. Also those persistent Easterlies that had them speeding across the MDR.

[hurricanehunter69]

GFS seems to be getting more and more aggressive with this wave with each passing run. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr= ... =&ps=model

[TheStormExpert]

Levi Cowan says the westerlies will take care of this wave!

[ninel conde]

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anoma ... 5.2014.gif

as we can see here the indian ocean and arabian sea are warmer than normal. i expect alot of strong waves, but they are going to run head long into horrid conditions once over water. conditions will probably only get worse in aug/sept.

[cycloneye]

At least let's enjoy a healthy wave moving off Africa in early June until it meets the daggers.

[SouthFloridian92]

Hey, remember what happened last year y'all. We had strong waves coming off of Africa in June and July and look what happened in August.

[TheStormExpert]

Hey, remember what happened last year y'all. We had strong waves coming off of Africa in June and July and look what happened in August.

This year will probably be a repeat only none of the waves will develop like Chantal and Dorian did.

[hurricaneCW]

I honestly hope people don't let their guard down this season. I know everything and everyone says this season is already finished but it really just takes some brief favorable conditions to develop for one dangerous storm to form. There have been plenty of years with significant activity that turns out to be non threatening.

[cycloneye]

Finnally wave was introduced at 8:05 AM EDT TWD:

A TROPICAL WAVE CAME OFF THE AFRICAN COAST EARLIER THIS MORNING.
THIS WAVE HAVE A CLEAR-CUT INVERTED-V SIGNAL AT THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE LEVELS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THERE IS A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. FURTHERMORE...THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH DEEP LAYER MOIST ENVIRONMENT
WHICH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED
TSTMS FROM 4N-11N E OF 17W.

[cycloneye]

2 PM EDT TWD:

A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE CAME OFF THE AFRICAN COAST EARLIER
THIS MORNING AND NOW EXTENDS FROM 12N16W TO 5N16W. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ASSOCIATED WITH IT NEAR 9N. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA
OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TPW ANIMATION.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
WAVE AXIS MAINLY FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 15W-18W.

[Gustywind]

At least let's enjoy a healthy wave moving off Africa in early June until it meets the daggers.

http://oi62.tinypic.com/15fkkd0.jpg

Waouw, interresting one Cycloneye if this can provide us some well needed rain most of us will be happy in the Lesser Antilles.

[cycloneye]

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17W/18W TO THE SOUTH OF
12N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE WAS WELL-DEFINED IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THE TPW
ANIMATION. THE UNIV. OF ALBANY POTENTIAL VORTICITY FORECAST FOR
310K AND 315K SHOWS A 700 MB JET STREAM PASSING DIRECTLY ACROSS
THE WAVE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 8N
TO 12N BETWEEN 16W AND 18W. SCATTERED STRONG IS FROM 6N TO 8N
BETWEEN 19W AND 21W...QUITE POSSIBLY MORE RELATED TO THE ITCZ
THAN TO THE TROPICAL WAVE.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 06N21W TO 14N21W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. ON VISIBLE METEOSAT-9 SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE WAVE EXHIBITS
CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD ABOUT THE WAVE
AXIS WITH GLOBAL MODEL DATA INDICATING THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH
700 MB TROUGHING AND A BROAD AREA OF 850 MB RELATIVELY VORTICITY
FROM 07N-14N BETWEEN 19W-28W. CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED TO THE
ITCZ REGION WITH ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 03N-07N BETWEEN 21W-27W.

[cycloneye]

2:05 PM EDT TWD:

TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM NEAR 01N23W TO 16N21W MOVING W
AT 10-15 KT. THIS IS A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS
VERY EVIDENT ON THE DAKAR SOUNDING ON SATURDAY MORNING...AND ON
SATELLITE HOVMOLLERS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS LARGE
CYCLONIC TURNING WITH THIS WAVE. CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED WITH
ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 03N-08N
BETWEEN 21W-27W.

[cycloneye]

8:05 PM EDT TWD:

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W TO THE SOUTH OF
14N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE SHOWS UP WELL IN
INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. BROKEN MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 8N TO THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS BETWEEN 20W AND 30W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE IN THE ITCZ FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 22W AND 35W.

[cycloneye]

2:05 PM EDT TWD:

TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS NEAR 02N31W TO 18N29W MOVING W AT 15-
20 KT. THIS IS A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS BEEN
EASY TO TRACK AS SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT LARGE
CYCLONIC TURNING WITH THIS WAVE. WITH DRY AIR OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE WAVE...CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THE WAVE. AS TYPICAL WITH TROPICAL WAVES MOVING OVER
THE ATLANTIC...THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION IS EAST OF THE WAVE
AXIS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 04N-08N BETWEEN 22W-29W.

[Gustywind]

2:05 PM EDT TWD:

TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS NEAR 02N31W TO 18N29W MOVING W AT 15-
20 KT. THIS IS A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS BEEN
EASY TO TRACK AS SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT LARGE
CYCLONIC TURNING WITH THIS WAVE. WITH DRY AIR OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE WAVE...CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THE WAVE. AS TYPICAL WITH TROPICAL WAVES MOVING OVER
THE ATLANTIC...THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION IS EAST OF THE WAVE
AXIS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 04N-08N BETWEEN 22W-29W.

Thanks for this info Cycloneye. Any latest pic related to this twave? Thanks