Western Gulf of Mexico....

[Dean4Storms]

I believe I see some spin over eastern Mexico and Convection is building with this out over the western Gulf. There is nothing else going on, at least needs to be monitored. One thing for sure, lots of moisture surging northward toward TX.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

[srainhoutx]

The NCEP Tropical Cyclone Genesis Probabilities have been very insistent on some sort of disturbed weather developing in this area for multiple days. Surface pressures are a bit low, but a MCV moved offshore from Monterrey yesterday and very deep convection has maintained oovernight. It is sheared, but a trough does extend across the Western Gulf with PW's near 2.5 And the general movement is N to NW into the shear axis across Texas and Western Louisiana.

[tropicwatch]

The shear in the area is still quite high. If the convection persists over the GOM and the shear diminishes, we could have a home grown system.

[hurricanes1234]

Compare 20, 30, 40, 50 and 60 knots of wind shear over the deep tropics and Caribbean Sea with values of 5-10 knots of shear over the whole portion of the EPAC in the image and that is just one thing that tells you the EPAC is acting very different from the rest of the northern hemisphere.

[Stormcenter]

The GOM does look very disturbed today. IMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-avn.html

[Nimbus]

Looks can be deceiving, there is a trough extending off the Mexican coast but those bright red IR cloud tops are displaced ENE by shear. If there is an elongated circulation much of that is still over land.

[stormlover2013]

Just good tropical moisture!!!

[hurricanes1234]

Just good tropical moisture!!!

Yes, I personally don't see any development from this. Conditions are too hostile at the moment, it's situated in roughly 50 knots of wind shear! Most tropical cyclones can barely stand up to 25 knots.

Edit: I really meant development in terms of tropical cyclones.

[Stormcenter]

Call it what you want but there are some serious storms developing in the West GOM right now. If it holds together and makes it onshore someone is going to get in on some very heavy rains. IMO

[tropicwatch]

The wind shear is only around 10kts over the big blow up in the western gulf.

[Hurricaneman]

If this area persist into tonight near Texas they might lemon 10% it or even maybe give it an invest designation if the convection remains strong but as is it wouldn't have much time to do anything

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[TheStormExpert]

If this area persist into tonight near Texas they might lemon 10% it or even maybe give it an invest designation if the convection remains strong but as is it wouldn't have much time to do anything

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

The first thing that comes to mind is Hurricane Humberto(2007) which rapidly intensified in the same region in less than 24hrs. Though something like seems very unlikely to happen here.

[Dean4Storms]

Shear is high except the very NW portion of the Gulf where that deep convection is located. Think if it had a day or two there it might make a run at it.

[Nimbus]

This is a good loop where you can see the sheer from the front blowing up convection.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrwv.html

Usually when the front lifts out and the shear settles down, the convection eases.

If there is low pressure at the surface with a low level circulation that would be different. Worth watching.

[NDG]

Very interesting that this is the vorticity near the LA coast the GFS shows coming across the SE US then exiting the Carolinas into the Atlantic by later this weekend and possibly developing.

[Steve820]

This is interesting, but I don't think we'll see a depression or named storm out of this. At most, I expect a strong invest since it seems like wind shear is high and it has little time over water before moving into Texas.

[TheStormExpert]

This is interesting, but I don't think we'll see a depression or named storm out of this. At most, I expect a strong invest since it seems like wind shear is high and it has little time over water before moving into Texas.

An Invest seems unlikely at this point IMO. It's falling apart and cloud tops are really warming in that area.

[Dean4Storms]

This would be interesting if 50-100 miles further east of Brownsville and Shear dropped.


http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=BRO&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[wxman57]

Development chances near zero - maybe 0.00001%

[Stormcenter]

I thought it was less than that.

Development chances near zero - maybe 0.00001%