Tropical Wave East of Lesser Antilles

[cycloneye]

NHC begins to mention the wave and GFS is bullish with it.


A tropical wave is forecast to move from western Africa into the
far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean by early this weekend.
Conditions appear to be favorable for some development thereafter
while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

This image was from earlier today.

[cycloneye]

Newly pouch is introduced. (023L) They have not made the text analysis of the models yet in the synopsis section.

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2014/P23L.html

[Hammy]

Would this be the system the GFS/UKMET have been consistently developing around Aug 30?

[cycloneye]

Would this be the system the GFS/UKMET have been consistently developing around Aug 30?

This is it.

[cycloneye]

Here is the synopsis made by the analist of pouches.

ECMWF: Starts farthest west of all models (~8E) and then initially tracks at a low latitude before emerging from Africa at about 12N, with increasing vorticity at about 84 hours, after which time, OW drops a little.

GFS: Similar low-latitude early track as to that in ECMWF, starting at about 10E rather than 8E. Strengthens early, hitting a peak at 48 hours while over west Africa, followed by temporary weakening before intensifying again over the Atlantic into a storm.

UKMET: Jumps northward after 24 hours, with OW relatively steady in the 2-4 x10-9 s-2 range for much of the five-day period.

NAVGEM: Starts farther east and tracks to the west closer to 12N the entire five days. Does not weaken on Day 5, but rather, continues to slightly intensify.

[Gustywind]

Very interresting, let's see if this one can organize and fights and against hostile conditions (shear , dry air) as a better futur is promised. Should it verfies too.
Let's wait and see.

[somethingfunny]

The GFS Ensembles have been in unusually good agreement on this one. (2nd image is the Operational GFS)





This could be a significant storm for the Cape Verde Islands, which rarely get hit by tropical storms or hurricanes.

The GFS Ensembles strongly suggest a recurve after that. It might become a major hurricane!

[somethingfunny]

The Canadian keeps this weaker (surprisingly) and far enough south to slide under the Bermuda High. The run ends with a northwest jog and hopefully a recurve as 97L lifts away from the United States.





NAVGEM:

Forms early, and lifts north fairly quickly but remains trapped under the ridge until 97L can potentially sweep it out





UKMET.... notices it? I suppose? The public UKMET doesn't go beyond 6 days but it doesn't seem as impressed as the first three models I posted.



And following the ECMWF as far out as it goes, it tracks this as a sharp wave across the Atlantic, which is impressive only because the ECMWF is rarely impressed by tropical waves:

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
late this week. Conditions appear to be favorable for some
development thereafter while the system moves westward at
10 to 15 mph across the eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

[Gustywind]

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
late this week. Conditions appear to be favorable for some
development thereafter while the system moves westward at
10 to 15 mph across the eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

Looks like they are very bullish on this one Cycloneye while this wave has not move off African coast...

[Sanibel]

It has hurricane written all over it in my opinion.

[drezee]

The area of low pressure is south of the current model depictions per the limited surface obs. It should also be noted that this is bringing heavy rain and wind to the Ebola stricken regions of West Africa. This will not help relief efforts.

[Senobia]

New tropical wave coming off coast of Africa this weekend
A large and powerful tropical wave will move off the coast of Africa on Friday evening, and the GFS model has been very aggressive in recent runs about developing this wave into a tropical storm within a day of its emergence. The other reliable models for tropical cyclone genesis, the European and UKMET models, have not been developing this wave right away. Residents of the Cape Verde Islands should anticipate the possibility of heavy rain and strong winds on Saturday as the wave moves west at 10 - 15 mph across the islands. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 0% and 30%, respectively.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=2776

[gatorcane]

GFS blowing it up and recurving it pretty quickly...likely recurving it too soon as it usually does with systems coming off Africa...

ECMWF probably has a better handle on it.

[gatorcane]

Up to 40%:

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
late this week. Conditions appear to be favorable for some
development thereafter while the system moves westward at 10 to 15
mph across the eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[cycloneye]

Here it comes.

[somethingfunny]

That's a big mama!

[Gustywind]

That's a big mama!

Impressive sat appearance. Let's see if Big mama has big anwers for the big dry air and the big shear

[cycloneye]

Another perspective of this pouch/wave. Is going to be interesting to see how it does when it hits the water as is going to emerge south from where GFS has been showing in the runs and that is the latitude of the CV islands.