11 PM tropical update on Fabian and wave, development?????

[WXBUFFJIM]

Hurricane Fabian weakens slightly at 11 PM EDT, but still remains a dangerous category 4 hurricane on the siffir simpson hurricane scale.

At 11 PM EDT, the center of Hurricane Fabian was located near latitude 21.1 north, longitude 61.6 west or about 225 miles north northeast of St Martin in the northern Leeward Islands.

Fabian is now moving to the northwest at 9 mph and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. Ths will take Fabian away from the northern leeward Islands and away from Puerto Rico. However Bermuda is threatened by this as we head into Friday evening.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 135 mph with higher gusts. This still makes Fabian a very dangerous category 4 hurricane on the siffir simpson hurricane scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common in major hurricanes and such as the case tonight. However looking at some satellite images, you can notice some south and southwest wind aloft trying to make it into this hurricane. The shear maybe starting to win here tonight since Fabian does not look like the creature we had last night. In other words it's not as symmetric as it was last night. A slow weakening trend is expected to start within the next 24 hours or so. However Bermuda is expectd to be near the path of a potentially dangerous category 3 hurricane by late Friday. Then watch out in the Canadian Maratimes as a very strong extratropical system pounds that particular area with possible hurricane force winds early next week.

Hurricane force winds extend outward 70 miles from the center while the tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles.

Minimum central pressure is 946 millibars or 27.94 inches. Large swells and very dangerous rip currents will continue affecting Puerto Rico all the way over to the northern Leeward Islands and particularly for the northeast facing beaches. Coastal flood watches and a heavy surf advisory are in effect as well in these area. Later in the week, high swells, dangerous rip currents, and large battering waves will hit the eastern seaboard. New info indicates nearshore waves of 8-12 feet possible Saturday from Virginia Beach southward into the North Carolina outer banks. This will be both wind and swell wave action. A cold front will be moving southeastward and the north winds will be strong behind that. Thus the combination of wind and swell waves in conjunction with the astronomically higher tides will cause beach erosion and minor tidal flooding issues this weekend along the east coast, I'll say that right now. Keep an eye on things regarding that. Otherwise we can breathe a sigh of relief as Fabian is most likely not going to directly impact the eastern United States. I would keep a close eye on things in Bermuda though as category 3 winds are possible with surf zone waves of 20-30 feet, possibly 35 feet near where the center is located. What makes it worse is Bermuda will be in the northeast quadrant it appears. So that's where the worse of the hurricane is. Something you and I should monitor if you're from Bermuda or know anyone from there!!!!

More updates on Fabian to come. Also keep an eye on the tropical wave over the northwest Caribbean. That could develop a surface low pressure system over the next day or so and possibly develop into a tropical entity. Whether it does develop or not, keep a close eye out for very heavy rain over Florida tomorrow right throuh Friday. Rainfall amounts of 3-6 inches is likely with this 3 day event.

More updates later, good night!!

Jim