HYBRID!!!!

[Rainband]

SHOWERS ARE ACTUALLY INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE THIS MORNING EVEN
INLAND. WE HAVE WARMED UP INCREDIBLY ALOFT IN THE LAST 24 HOURS,
4 DEGREES C. PLUS THERE IS A HINT OF A SURFACE LOW ON SAT PIX, AT
LEAST THERE WAS BEFORE THE ECLIPSE. SURFACE PRESSURES AT BUOY
42003 WERE A BIT LOWER TODAY ALTHOUGH THEY ARE A LITTLE HIGHER NOW
IT IS PROBABLY JUST A DIURNAL FLUCTUATION.

WHAT HAPPENS TO OUR WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM IS REALLY DEPENDANT ON
ON THE FEATURE DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTHWEST. CONSIDERING THE
INCREASE IN OUR 500 MB TEMPERATURES THERE IS LITTLE QUESTION THAT
AT LEAST FOR NOW THIS IS A PURELY TROPICAL SYSTEM. I AM NOT SURE IT
CAN STAY THAT WAY WITH THE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH. THE GFS HAS THE
SYSTEM BECOMING MORE OF A HYBRID SYSTEM LATE THURSDAY, WHICH
USUALLY MEANS A SHORT TERM DEEPENING OF THE SYSTEM AND AN AREAL
EXPANSION OF THE WIND FIELD. THE ETA IMPLIES THE SAME BUT IS SLOWER.

AS WE HAVE BEEN PLAYING THIS THE LAST COUPLE NIGHTS WE ARE GOING
WITH A GFS SOLUTION. FOR NOW WE ARE JUST PLAYING THIS AS A HEAVY
RAIN EVENT. TO QUOTE JR IN MIAMI "WILL NOT EXECUTE THE FISH PULLED
UPON THE WHARF AND FLIP-FLOP AND WILL LEAVE THE FLOOD WATCH IN
EFFECT". I COULDN'T AGREE MORE, I THINK. IN FACT THE DAY SHIFT
WILL PROBABLY NEED TO EXTEND THE WATCH THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE IN NO HURRY TO EXIT THE AREA.

I WILL DECREASE HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES AGAIN THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WHICH I WILL
INCREASE. FOR NOW I WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT I AM A LITTLE CONCERNED
THAT WINDS ON 42003 ARE NEAR SCA CRITERIA RIGHT NOW. IN FACT THE
GRADIENT IS 3 MB BETWEEN KTPA AND 42003. I WILL INCREASE WINDS A
LITTLE TO PUT US IN SCEC CONDITIONS. I WILL KEEP WINDS A LITTLE
LOWER IN THE NORTHERN LEG OF THE MARINE ZONES ON THE GRIDS.

.EXTENDED (SAT-TUE)...WEAK SURFACE LOW, FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF
FORMING WEST OF EYW, EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND THEN
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AS A HYBRID SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS A
DRYING TREND AFTER THE SYSTEM PASSES WITH MORE NORTHERLY WINDS TILL
THE END OF THE PERIOD. HAVE TWEAKED THE POPS DOWN A BIT FROM SUNDAY
ON, BUT STILL IN THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RANGE. ALSO
LOWERED EVENING LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DRIER
AIR.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS

TPA 086/075 086/076 7787
FMY 086/076 086/076 7787
GIF 087/074 086/074 7585
SRQ 085/076 085/077 7787
BKV 085/074 086/074 7787

.TBW...FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ALL ZONES.
...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION ALL MARINE ZONES.

DS/RJS

[wxman57]

I'm not at work yet, but I do have access to satellite imagery with surface obs plotted across the Gulf/Caribbean from home. Buoy 40703 in the eastern Gulf has a south wind at 15kts and 1013.8 mb pressure, lowest of the 3 buoys in the central Gulf. That's near the western side of the convection in the eastern Gulf (maybe 26N/82W). That area is beneath a mid-level cicrulation as evident in satellite loops. Other obs in the area don't show any evidence of an LLC, but that would be the area to watch today for LLC formation.

If the GFS is anywhere near correct, Florida is about to REALLY enter the rainy season, as it parks this low north of Tampa for 3-4 days along a stalling cold front before finally moving it out to sea to the NE. If this happens, some areas of the central and northern Peninsula could easily get 15-20" of rain or more.

Well, time for work.

[alicia-w]

Where is that buoy? It doesnt show as a recognized station ID at NBDC...

[Rainband]

I'm not at work yet, but I do have access to satellite imagery with surface obs plotted across the Gulf/Caribbean from home. Buoy 40703 in the eastern Gulf has a south wind at 15kts and 1013.8 mb pressure, lowest of the 3 buoys in the central Gulf. That's near the western side of the convection in the eastern Gulf (maybe 26N/82W). That area is beneath a mid-level cicrulation as evident in satellite loops. Other obs in the area don't show any evidence of an LLC, but that would be the area to watch today for LLC formation.

If the GFS is anywhere near correct, Florida is about to REALLY enter the rainy season, as it parks this low north of Tampa for 3-4 days along a stalling cold front before finally moving it out to sea to the NE. If this happens, some areas of the central and northern Peninsula could easily get 15-20" of rain or more.

Well, time for work.

WxMan57 Is this still the case?? seems like the low is west of us moving north?? Or am I mistaken??

[mitchell]

Where is that buoy? It doesnt show as a recognized station ID at NBDC...

Here is a map showing buoy 40703:

[alicia-w]

your image didnt post.....can you insert the URL? thanks!

[mitchell]

http://home.houston.rr.com/wx/henri3.gif