When will we see Danny?

[TheStormExpert]

Getting kind of bored and teased with the models(GFS especially) showing false storms(Phantom Storms).

So the big question is when will we see Danny?(Moderaters, could you please turn this into a poll?)


I vote within the last two weeks of this month.

[tatertawt24]

2021.

jk. I'm thinking some kind of barely TS-strength fish storm within the next two weeks or so, ala Claudette.

[tolakram]

Possibly later today?

[TheStormExpert]

Possibly later today?

Yeah I was just thinking how I jumped the gun possibly too soon!

[Hammy]

I say last week of August. 95L will be sheared away by the time the plane takes off.

[CaliforniaResident]

Here are my predictions (disclaimer: I'm just speculating for the heck of it and have no meteorological credentials)

Current invests won't form: "Danny" will appear around August 15. Erika around the first week of September with Fred to follow within a couple of days. Grace will be the final storm of the season and will form in the third week of September. None will reach hurricane status making it the first Atlantic season to record zero hurricanes. Danny and Erika will not effect the U.S. but Fred will make landfall in South Carolina as a low end TS. Grace will effect the Caribbean.

[LarryWx]

Here are my predictions (disclaimer: I'm just speculating for the heck of it and have no meteorological credentials)

Current invests won't form: "Danny" will appear around August 15. Erika around the first week of September with Fred to follow within a couple of days. Grace will be the final storm of the season and will form in the third week of September. None will reach hurricane status making it the first Atlantic season to record zero hurricanes. Danny and Erika will not effect the U.S. but Fred will make landfall in South Carolina as a low end TS. Grace will effect the Caribbean.

The prior Fred (2009), which was also during El Nino, was a very interesting CV storm in that its sub-TD remnants actually made it all of the way to the SE CONUS coast on 9/23/09 days after having lost TD status and then getting trapped and sent westward into the SE coast underneath a rather strong and large NE CONUS high. I distinctly remember experiencing its remnants along the GA coast and also discussing ex-Fred in this S2K thread:

viewtopic.php?f=71&t=106509&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&hilit=fred&start=1835

This post by "breeze" was priceless and accurate: "When do you know you've followed a system way too long? When you look at a satellite image of it and swear you see the face of an old man with a long gray beard....is that you, Fred? "

Anyway, my WAG for the fun of it is for Danny to form on 8/17.

[HurricaneBill]

None will reach hurricane status making it the first Atlantic season to record zero hurricanes.

1907 and 1914 had no hurricanes.

[CaliforniaResident]

None will reach hurricane status making it the first Atlantic season to record zero hurricanes.

1907 and 1914 had no hurricanes.

There were no satellites back then so there were possibly hurricanes that curved out to sea that had no effect on land. 2015 may be the first year where we can confirm no hurricanes in the north Atlantic.

[ConvergenceZone]

I won't be surprised if we don't see Danny until mid late September. I'm expecting a very quiet year.... So far 2015 is going down as the last amount of times I've visited this board.....Glad nobody is getting serious damage, but 2015 seems like it will be a snorfest..........

[Hammy]

None will reach hurricane status making it the first Atlantic season to record zero hurricanes.

1907 and 1914 had no hurricanes.

There were no satellites back then so there were possibly hurricanes that curved out to sea that had no effect on land. 2015 may be the first year where we can confirm no hurricanes in the north Atlantic.

I don't know why people are so confident that we won't have any hurricanes, several posters here were making genuine forecasts in 2013 and 14 as well.

I won't be surprised if we don't see Danny until mid late September. I'm expecting a very quiet year.... So far 2015 is going down as the last amount of times I've visited this board.....Glad nobody is getting serious damage, but 2015 seems like it will be a snorfest..........

Normally I'd disagree with this, but given the El Nino could be stronger than 1997's it wouldn't be all that surprising to have another storm-free August. I'd wager no later than the first week of September if that ends up the case though.

[LarryWx]

Normally I'd disagree with this, but given the El Nino could be stronger than 1997's it wouldn't be all that surprising to have another storm-free August. I'd wager no later than the first week of September if that ends up the case though.

Hammy,
I wouldn't be surprised but I'm guessing there will be one that forms in August and it could even be all of the way out in the eastern MDR though i'm not predicting location. Looking at the 21 El Nino seasons that eventually peaked as moderate+ (2009, 2002, 1997, 1991, 1987, 1986, 1982, 1972, 1963, 1957, 1940, 1930, 1925, 1918, 1911, 1905, 1902, 1899, 1896, 1888, and 1877), only 1997, 1905, and 1902 don't have on the record a tropical storm that formed in August and there is always the chance that an August storm was missed in both 1905 and 1902. Even if we assume nothing actually formed in August in both 1905 and 1902, that would mean only 1/7 of these years had no August storm. OTOH, the current El Nino may very well be moving toward one of the strongest on record. Also, it looks pretty certain now that there won't be any through ~8/12 per model consensus. So, for these reasons, I'd say that the chance is higher than 1/7 for no August storm. Nevertheless, I'd think the chance is still somewhere in the general vicinity of 3 out of 4 that there will be an August storm because there have been many more geneses 8/13-31 than 8/1-12. Only two of the 21 seasons had August genesis only within August 1-12. Also, 1997 had an unusually active July, which could have a connection with a quiet August due to cyclical factors. Furthermore, it only took til 9/3 in 1997 for the next storm to form....i.e., it just missed being in August.

Edit: I did just check the MJO forecasts with emphasis on the more accurate Euro ensemble. The forecast seems to keep it mainly within phase 7 as well as within the circle through at least 8/19. These are relatively unfavorable phases for genesis per stats I had analyzed for 1995-2012. So, this admittedly is one reason I wouldn't be surprised if none form in August. So, I'm lowering the chance from 3 out of 4 to 2 out of 3. I am educatedly guessing that only one will form, if any.

Euro ens MJO fcast: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... _small.gif

[lilybeth]

I think we will have both Danny and possibly the E storm this month - with E maybe straddling end Aug/beginning Sept. No proof or anything, just a hunch.

[Hammy]

I'm still going with the last week of August, overall this year has a very 2002-feel to it for me.

[Javlin]

I do not know about Danny but a naked swirl is starting to pop tonight?Shear looks low about 900 miles E of the islands lets see if it persist.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-rgb.html

[chaser1]

I think we will have both Danny and possibly the E storm this month - with E maybe straddling end Aug/beginning Sept. No proof or anything, just a hunch.

Hey Lilybeth, i'm kinda thinking the same as you.

I'm also going to guess that we'll see 2 storms this month; At least one of them reaching hurricane intensity. Taking it a step further, I'll guess that both will form in the Eastern Atlantic within the MDR or subtropical latitudes a little north of there. I'm less apt to think they'll re-curvature, but more likely an eventual losing battle to increasing upper level shear between 50W-60W.

[CrazyC83]

I'm thinking maybe this weekend from the low off the east coast that is expected?

[TheStormExpert]

I'm thinking maybe this weekend from the low off the east coast that is expected?

That's going to be a Nor'easter.

[galaxy401]

I'll be specific and say August 20.

[floridasun78]

i say first week of sep end of peak part hurricane season