Area East Of Florida

[NCSTORMMAN]

Quite a good bit of spin going on there and convection has been persistent the last 12 hours or so. Any chance of development?

[northjaxpro]

Well, it is along a trough axis, and although I have yet to look at the environment analysis, I have to think shear probably is at least in the moderate range (20 knots or more at least )

If shear is moderate to high, it is tough to see this developing into anything.

[NCSTORMMAN]

Sure thing I was just curious and seen a few people posting about it on social media.

[tropicwatch]

There is a very narrow band of 5-10kts of upper level wind shear currently in that area.

[AJC3]

The convection of which you speak developed along a surface trough (as mentioned above) in an area of strong upper level divergence that has persisted offshore the SE CONUS for more than 24 hours.





While this setup has been known to produce the occasional high latitude TC genesis, model guidance doesn't show anything forming in this area. Not a threat to develop, but in 2015, there's not much else out there to watch.

[NCSTORMMAN]

The convection of which you speak developed along a surface trough (as mentioned above) in an area of strong upper level divergence that has persisted offshore the SE CONUS for more than 24 hours.





While this setup has been known to produce the occasional high latitude TC genesis, model guidance doesn't show anything forming in this area. Not a threat to develop, but in 2015, there's not much else out there to watch.

LOL SO TRUE! That is a good thing though but in a way the south needs a good weak storm to end some drought issues.

[CrazyC83]

The convection of which you speak developed along a surface trough (as mentioned above) in an area of strong upper level divergence that has persisted offshore the SE CONUS for more than 24 hours.

While this setup has been known to produce the occasional high latitude TC genesis, model guidance doesn't show anything forming in this area. Not a threat to develop, but in 2015, there's not much else out there to watch.

LOL SO TRUE! That is a good thing though but in a way the south needs a good weak storm to end some drought issues.

Ana and Claudette formed in a very similar situation too though.

[AJC3]

The convection of which you speak developed along a surface trough (as mentioned above) in an area of strong upper level divergence that has persisted offshore the SE CONUS for more than 24 hours.

While this setup has been known to produce the occasional high latitude TC genesis, model guidance doesn't show anything forming in this area. Not a threat to develop, but in 2015, there's not much else out there to watch.

LOL SO TRUE! That is a good thing though but in a way the south needs a good weak storm to end some drought issues.

Ana and Claudette formed in a very similar situation too though.

Ana and Claudette also had significant model support to form as baroclincally initiated lows. This (now dissipated) area of convection didn't even have that.