Disturbed area north of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico

[northjaxpro]

This area, although under persistent shear, has been able to regenerate convection off and on the past couple of days. It is doing again this morning, with a nice convective burst occurring late this morning. No model support for now,and there is an ULL to the northeast of the system out at around approx. 29N 62W. I am not anticipating any development short term, but if the shear can abate some, this may be something to monitor down the road.

[gatorcane]

JAX absolutely this is the time of year everything needs watching. Been looking at this also but the shear needs to let up.

Saved image:

[TheStormExpert]

Is the shear from the ULL to the northeast enhancing this convection?

[northjaxpro]

Shear really drops off in the area just east of the Bahamas, just to the northwest of where this system is currently located.

If this vorticity can stay intact and reach that area in the short term, I think there may be a chance for this to try to spin up down the road. Also, the models are forecasting a mid-level ridge to build from the GOM eastward across Florida peninsula to the Bahamas by middle part of this week.

[northjaxpro]

Is the shear from the ULL to the northeast enhancing this convection?

Yes, the ULL is for the time being. It is causing not only shear, but UL diffluence in that area, which is helping with convection enhancement. However, there is some vorticity at 850mb currently , so if the vorticity can maintain and drift northwest in the short term, current shear analysis which I just posted above really shows shear drops off significantly. This may allow for much more conducive conditions for this system to develop down the road if it is not sheared to death before then.

[rockyman]

Levi Cowan is watching this. See his tweet @TropicalTidbits

[NCSTORMMAN]

This is getting organized. Any idea where the steering currents take it?

[northjaxpro]

Well, I agree with Cowan for sure. He is observing the same things I am. Vorticity is there and conditions are better just to the northwest of the system.

If, and for the moment a big IF, this is still around after the next 36 hours, I am willing to state now we may have something to monitor other than 96L this week.

[floridasun78]

Levi Cowan is watching this. See his tweet @TropicalTidbits

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 16m16 minutes ago

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 17m Can't lose sight of sneaky wave N of Hispaniola. Sheared for now & not forecasted to develop, but will end up in gulf

[gatorcane]

This is getting organized. Any idea where the steering currents take it?

It should head west. You can see the 700MB ridging blocking it from moving north, 60 hours below courtesy of the GFS:

[NCSTORMMAN]

This is getting organized. Any idea where the steering currents take it?

It should head west. You can see the 700MB ridging blocking it from moving north, 60 hours below courtesy of the GFS:

Okay that is worrying. I see favorable conditions ahead for it. What is going to stop it from developing if it heads west?

[northjaxpro]

That's right gatorcane. It would most likely enter into the GOM later in the week if the system can stay intact.

[gatorcane]

Hmmm, there is some low-level vorticity, that wasn't there before:

[northjaxpro]

I did not get around to posting that image gatorcane after discussing it in this thread, so thanks for posting this to everyone.

[gatorcane]

Saved loop:

[floridasun78]

if you look at Visible Loop you see ull move east alway from area that could lessen shear http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/h5-loop-vis.html

[northjaxpro]

The wave itself is moving west-northwest currently. If the vorticity can remain in tact, it should be moving into a more conducive environment based on the latest shear analysis which I posted on this page. Definitely something to monitor .

[gatorcane]

No mention by the NHC because there is zero model support - but doesn't mean the models may start latching on in future runs.

[northjaxpro]

Precisely gatorcane. Models could begin to latch onto this system sooner than you may realize in my estimation.

[rolltide]

If this holds together things could get very interesting when it reaches the southern Bahamas. Storms have been known to form rapidly in that area.


This post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.