Hurricane Patricia's remains in the Gulf

[Stormcenter]

So what should we (along the NW/C Gulf coast) expect from the remains of the now powerful Hurricane Patricia when it enters the Gulf?
Can this become more than just a non-tropical low?

[Alyono]

you shouldn't think of this as "just" a nontropical low.

The impacts will be the same regardless as to whether or not this has a name then. Don't be hung up on a name

[rolltide]

Just saw where the long range forecast calls for "wind" in Pensacola on Tuesday. Thought it might be the result of a front passing though but the forecast shows T-storms the next day. That leads me to doubt the passing of a front.

[rockyman]

Here's a post from WWL TV in New Orleans:

http://www.wwltv.com/story/weather/2015 ... /74455944/


James Spann from ABC 33/40 in Birmingham:
NEXT WEEK: A tropical low, the remnant of what is now powerful Hurricane Patricia in the eastern Pacific, will move into Louisiana from the western Gulf of Mexico, and will pull deep moisture into the state. Rain should become rather widespread Monday and Tuesday, with potential for heavy rain at times. The current look advertised by models suggests no risk of severe storms, just lots of rain.

Rain amounts of at least 1 to 2 inches are likely, and some spots could see even more. Showers could linger into Wednesday, and then cooler and drier air follows for Thursday and Friday.

http://www.alabamawx.com/?p=95621


KHOU out of Houston:
http://www.khou.com/story/weather/2015/ ... /12790385/

[rolltide]

Local weather in P-cola said as of now we can expect 2-3 inches of rain. Also said that estimate could increase depending on what is left of Patricia (moisture wise not as a tropical cyclone) We need the rain I just hope it doesn't come all at once.

[Steve]

I had been on the road and mostly out of touch. But if you look at the late visible loop, I think a pretty solid remnant circulation is likely. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

It looks like an interesting few days ahead for Texas and LA

[rolltide]

I had been on the road and mostly out of touch. But if you look at the late visible loop, I think a pretty solid remnant circulation is likely. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

It looks like an interesting few days ahead for Texas and LA

Will be interesting to see whats left of the remnant circulation after it crosses the high mountains of Mexico. I'm thinking not much.

[Steve]

Ecmwf operational 850 vort at 72 hours. Looks mostly tropical to me.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-op ... hour=072hr

It also looks mostly tropical (at least early on) on the GFS 18z 500mb run. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

But if you run some of the theta-e, temperature and relative humiditity loops, you see a more stretched out system in the 3-4 day range. I don't know what's going to happen but I think it's pretty likely that some coastal areas of tx and la will see some gale force conditions in the next 72-96 hours.

This is not an official forecast.

[Steve]

I had been on the road and mostly out of touch. But if you look at the late visible loop, I think a pretty solid remnant circulation is likely. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

It looks like an interesting few days ahead for Texas and LA

Will be interesting to see whats left of the remnant circulation after it crosses the high mountains of Mexico. I'm thinking not much.

I actually think a decent circation stays intact because of how strong it got. But I don't personally think much comes out of it besides a lot of rain and wind. Hwrf has the pressure rising as it moves closer to the la coast, and I could buy that. GFS runs it a hair more off the coast and has the circulation generally over the Golden Triangle/Lake Charles area. This is GFS valid for 1 am Monday morning. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=060hr

[Steve]

You might be right. The surface and upper air runs I looked at showed more of an independent low (ref 12z euro ensembles at 48 hours). But I guess with that high pressure pushing down it could be frontal but of tropical origin. I wasn't looking to be following tropics this weekend, but now....

[CrazyC83]

It would be still Patricia if it remains intact, and if it degenerates and regenerates, it would be Kate, correct?

[Ptarmigan]

It would be still Patricia if it remains intact, and if it degenerates and regenerates, it would be Kate, correct?

It would be Kate in the Atlantic side.

[Alyono]

It would be still Patricia if it remains intact, and if it degenerates and regenerates, it would be Kate, correct?

It would be Kate in the Atlantic side.

would be Kate ONLY if it loses its circulation.

However, this is almost certainly NOT going to be named unless there is a well defined eye

[Steve]

Agreed. GFS backed off a bit with this run less over water and closer to the tx coast. Coastal areas can take more rain, but 00z GFS does put 15.3" in the Galveston area extending into the Houston suburbs and over into Cameron Parish. There is 4-5" here and then a 6" target over toward Dauphin Island. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif?1445665023

[Dean4Storms]

00z ECM pretty bullish with 60kt wind gusts along the TX Coast with pressures down to around 998mb.

[NDG]

Yeah, the Euro is very bullish, however this time frame is when the model is pretty good so I would not dismiss it.
I think it will have more a subtropical look to it than extra-tropical like the Euro shows.

[tolakram]

GFS shear forecast is interesting.

06Z http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2015102406&field=850-200mb+Shear&hour=Animation

Looks like it may be subtropical with a lot of shear just north of the system.

[Steve]

Doesn't look quite so bad. 72 hour rainfall totals in the 5-10" range (plus what already has fallen in south and coastal texas) for coastal texas and central LA. Not sure about wind speeds. 06 hwrf had some 40+ knots while still offshore.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr= ... Size=M&ps=

[Steve]

So I watched the 9 minute Bastardi Saturday summary, and he's giving Patricia a Part 3 in the eastern Great Lakes and Western NY State as the jet from the trough digging in behind Patricia's remnants acts to juice the remnant low and bring 50-60mph gusts that far north. He said he's worried about severe weather potential for some of the NE US.

[Steve]

NHC intitially went with nontropical as mid and upper remnants pulled ne and the lower level remnants will become absorbed into the low winding up in Texas. Like I said last night, I think there will be gale force conditions in the nw gulf and coastal areas, so tropical storm conditions should be present regardless of whether there is enough time over water or whether or not nhc classifies as tropical or subtropical. If they are right with the absorption and phase, and if the lower-level circulation gets 18-36 hours over the Gulf, I think we get an STS. That would be my call with 45mph winds with gusts to 60-65 offshore. Let's see what happens.

Disclaimer: This is not an official forecast. Go with the NHC

Edit: floater visible shows a hook blowing up closer to the coast than where the surface maps show a low. its probably the midlevel remnants. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif