CrazyC83 wrote:ncforecaster89 wrote:aspen wrote:No way in hell Matthew was a Cat 5 if Iota was a Cat 4 despite a 140 kt valid SFMR measurement and Dvorak support for 140 kt.
Once again, I have to wonder about Dorian’s SFMR. Unlike Iota, Dorian had extremely high FL winds in all four quadrants (~160 kt in at least one quadrant), and dropsondes recorded that rare V signature showing that air was sinking all the way down to the surface, indicating winds would be translating from FL to the surface rather well. All quadrants also had 160 kt or greater valid SFMR measurements, and some even got up to 170 kt. Maybe the low ocean depth was messing with SFMR, but with effective translation of ~160 kt FL winds to the surface, it’s hard to believe they’re that erroneous.
I agree, as others have already stated, that Matthew should be downgraded based on the apparent high bias of the SFMR data in surface winds > 120 kt. Might be an unpopular opinion, but I’ve always felt Dorian was overestimated with the 160 kt estimate; which is way too high a figure considering the 700 mb FLWs of 161 kt (corresponds to only 145 kt). The SFMR is the only data that supported such an extreme estimate and I feel 150 kt is likely a more accurate representation of its MSW at its peak.
Although Dorian currently sits above Irma, the exclusion of the SFMR data would likely put them at the same intensity of 150 kt. Personally, I find Irma to be the more impressive hurricane of the two and actually had a higher 700 mb FLW of 164 kt. Even though I still think of Dorian as an incredibly powerful Cat 5, it should not be tied with the GLDH of 1935...based on the available data.
Irma also had a surface observation of note: an official gust of (I believe) 173 kt in St. Martin. That lends itself well to an intensity of 155 kt, which I believe is reasonable. Dorian is a case with an even greater discrepancy. 150 or 155 kt would likely make more sense, but at that time 160 kt seemed best with the investigation underway. Dorian's floor is probably 150 kt.
For all the recent strong 4s and 5s (i.e. 130 kt or greater):
Matthew - FLW 134/121 at surface, SFMR 143, Dvorak 127, P-W 118. BT is 145 kt but my estimate is 130 kt at that time.
Irma - FLW 164/148 (and 170 at non-standard/about 150), SFMR 160, Dvorak 140, P-W 152, surface G173. BT is 155 kt and reasonable.
Jose - FLW 144/130, SFMR 142, Dvorak 115, P-W 125, no surface data. BT is 135 kt and probably reasonable (the thoughts of it being cat 5 are likely gone now).
Maria - FLW 157/141, SFMR 152, Dvorak 140, P-W 154. BT is 150 kt and probably reasonable.
Michael - FLW 152/137, SFMR 138 (and suspect), Dvorak 140, P-W 141, radar 147. BT is 140 kt, although a case for 145 kt could be made.
Dorian - FLW 161/145, SFMR 178, Dvorak 127, P-W 154. BT is 160 kt with a high degree of uncertainty; floor is 150 kt with 155 kt also reasonable.
Lorenzo - Dvorak 140 but no other data. BT is 140 kt and hard to argue.
Laura - FLW 148/133, SFMR 138 (and suspect), Dvorak 127, P-W 124, radar ~135. Operational BT is 130 kt, awaiting TCR. My best estimate is 135 kt.
Eta - FLW 137/123 (very limited data), SFMR 135, Dvorak 140, P-W 137. Operational BT is 130 kt, awaiting TCR.
Iota - FLW 143/129, SFMR 140, Dvorak 140, P-W 145. BT is 135 kt, which is the current source of controversy but the flight-level winds don't support higher.