Monitor the tail end of frontal boundary off Florida East Coast

[northjaxpro]

I know some of you are making ridicule of the GFS, but the short term runs show that a wave of Low Pressure may form on the tail end of that frontal boundary currently just off the Northeast Florida coast. 6Z GFS shows a wave of Low Pressure near the coast of Northeast Florida within 36 hours. It looks as steering currents do not look to be particularly strong and if such feature does develop, it looks to meander over or near Northern Florida for much of this week.

I do not look for this system to develop maturely as the land interaction will keep this in check. However, if this feature can linger offshore a bit in the Gulf Stream, or move across into the NE GOM, it may have a chance. Shear levels right now are relatively low in the GOM and off the Florida coast for the time being.

Just something I wanted to mention. We have had a lot of these frontal boundaries or troughs drop all the way into Florida with unusual frequency for this time of the year. One of these times a wave of Low Pressure is bound to form. Maybe nothing will come out of this, but this time of the early season, this is a type of scenario that tropical cyclones can develop.

[stormwise]

http://meteocentre.com/models/get_panel ... &dd=latest

00z ARPEGE is modeling the kow.

[JaxGator]

Yeah northjaxpro, I noticed it too coming off the coast of the Carolina's yesterday and now we're getting rain and storms from the front that's associated with it. It currently looks interesting at the moment and the NWS Jax radar shows some big thunderstorms off shore. It might have a chance due to the low shear and warm ocean temps but we'll see what happens.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah I picked up over an inch of rain in a pretty good thunderstorm at around 8 a.m. this morning. Picked up a wind gust.to 42 mph during a downburst when downburst when that storm passed through my locale.

The key Jaxgator is persistence of the convection with the feature off shore. I will be watching if the vorticity will increase over the next 24-36 hours.

[JaxGator]

:uarrow: Yeah I picked up over an inch of rain in a pretty good thunderstorm at around 8 a.m. this morning. Picked up a wind gust.to 42 mph during a downburst when downburst when that storm passed through my locale.

The key Jaxgator is persistence of the convectio with the feature off shore. I will be watching if the vorticity will increase over the next 24-36 hours.

I agree, those are important factors for development. That's a good amount of rain and a big gust. I got less than that where I am but there was a lot of thunder.

[Nimbus]

Northjaxpro wrote:

Shear levels right now are relatively low in the GOM and off the Florida coast for the time being.

Saw that front digging yesterday and was wondering the same thing..

Invest Monday?

[tropicwatch]

Close to live visible loop of area.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=30.5&lon=-80.5&type=Animation&info=vis&numframes=15

[weathaguyry]

It does look interesting, we will see how this develops

[weathaguyry]

Whoops, someone already put the link for this

[NDG]

Lots of outflow boundaries and strong northerly UL winds, at least at the moment.

[northjaxpro]

Northjaxpro wrote:

Shear levels right now are relatively low in the GOM and off the Florida coast for the time being.

Saw that front digging yesterday and was wondering the same thing..

Invest Monday?

Not in the next 36 hours at least. We have to see convection persist over a period of time. Also, we have to see some indications of surface pressure drops over the next 36 hours or so before even thinking about this being an invest at this time. Land interaction also will potentially hinder development as well.

[Mouton]

T storms and rain seem to be increasing up here on Amelia over the past hour. Wind pretty calm and barometer steady. Been a tad dry over the past week so the rain is welcome.

[tropicwatch]

The way things are progressing, looks like the tail end of the frontal boundary will make it into the GOM. Have to see if convection will hold for a day or two.

[Darvince]

What are you all seeing? All I'm seeing is convection over the deep south+Florida as well as convection associated with a front over Bermuda, with the frontal boundary stretching towards central Florida.

[weathaguyry]

Well, the convection could move into the GOM in the next few days and develop into something

[tropicwatch]

Interesting little feature northeast of Jacksonville but no convection.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=30.5&lon=-80.5&type=Animation&info=vis&numframes=15

[floridasun78]

i think it take days to get this be tropical even get chance

[tolakram]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDAT.shtml

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N67W to 27N68W to 23N72W,
into the Caribbean Sea. A stationary front passes through 32N72W
to 31N75W, to a 1017 MB low pressure center that is near 31N79W.
A cold front continues from the low pressure center, cutting into
the northeaster corner of Florida and the southeastern corner of
Georgia. A surface trough extends from the 1017 MB low pressure
center, to 28N79W, across southern Florida to 25N82W just to the
north of the Florida Keys. Convective precipitation: scattered
moderate to isolated strong from 28N northward between 63W and
72W. Isolated to widely scattered moderate elsewhere from 20N
northward from 60W westward.

A middle level to upper level trough extends from a 24N59W
cyclonic circulation center, beyond Puerto Rico, into the
Caribbean Sea. A surface trough is along 22N53W 19N54W 17N55W.
Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 16N to 27N
between 49W and 60W.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from
23N northward from 70W eastward.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT http://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE