Is Henri going to be another Grace?

[cycloneye]

Grace was named last weekend but it lasted like a tremor with no big consequenses except for rain at portions of Texas that needed it.IMO it was a wasted name as it lasted 6 hours as no strong winds were reported then but will TD#12 be Henri at some point and do the same as Grace did? Well so far no strong winds by recon nor bouys are reported and that is why the same situation may occur again as when last weekend Grace was named.

[PTrackerLA]

It could possibly be another Grace. In the last few visible shots the weak llc is completely exposed with all the convection moving off to the NE. It will be interesting to see what will happen but TD 12's future isn't looking too bright right now.

[ColdFront77]

The forecast environmental conditions for Tropical Depression 12 are for some development of the system.

What we see now obviously isn't necessarily what we will see continue.

[OtherHD]

Well from the start I said this would never develop. Now that it has, I will say that this will not become Henri...or Isabel...or anything other than a TD.

[Stormsfury]

#12 present state ... no --- unless it elongates into a large 500 mile area on convection along a TROUGH AXIS ... LOL :LOL:

SF

[cycloneye]

LOL SF

[Rainband]

#12 present state ... no --- unless it elongates into a large 500 mile area on convection along a TROUGH AXIS ... LOL :LOL:

SF

English

[ColdFront77]

A forecast for favorable conditions doesn't mean "nowcasting" for favorable conditions.

After 3 to 3 1/2 hours conditions in the next 12 to 36 hours did a 180º, eh?

[cycloneye]

The ULL has to weaken or go away to then permit the system to organize better.

[ColdFront77]

Right Luis. The National Hurricane Center is expecting the upper level low to move away or they wouldn't of said in their that this system would become a tropical storm and wouldn't of issued a Tropical Storm Warning from Indian Pass, Florida to Englewood, Florida.

[AussieMark]

The NHC has set a precedent by giving TD 11 a name they will have to name TD 12 in the near future.

[cycloneye]

Bumping this thread to continue this interesting discussion about the naming of now TS Henri if it was tthe correct one or not and if it is similar to Grace last weekend.IMO it was a close call for the NHC to upgrade because the data was ambiguous to support a TS however the pressure has dropped so there is the balance and the debate continues.

[Pebbles]

This discussion could get interesting....

In my newbie way of saying things..I have to agree with what what was posted in another thread by I believe wx (correct me if i wrong but it early and my eyes are still not functioning) I don't feel this is a true 'tropical storm' but a burst of convection giving enough readings to justify it through NHC

Maybe there will be enough development to justify the naming later today ..so who knows.... *shrugs*

[wxman57]

Henri is NO Grace! Grace produced actual surface obs of 35kt winds, though it kind of lacked a well defined circulation. Henri is producing 25kt winds at the buoys right next to the center. Recon supports 32kt surface winds in that one squall. It's purely a political upgrade to get residents to take note of the heavy rain moving ashore.

The surface pressure is on the low side - 997 mb, but you have to realize that the pressures in the eastern Gulf are fairly low surrounding the storm due to the approaching cold front. IF there was a 1020mb high across the southeast U.S. then Henri would have TS-force winds.

Radar shows squalls are not as heavy as yesterday, but I still expect 5-10 inches of rain in the Tampa area.

[Pebbles]

There we go! He said it *winks at wxman* when it comes to the tropics I feel like Luke Skywalker..the young apprentice, and the tropics are Vadar (thus the pic in my siggie)
...and Wxman is Obi-Wan *cheers* ...teach me O master of the mysterious force of the tropics!

[wxman57]

I think I need a day off. 12 hurricane shifts in a row now. I'm starting to get a little perturbed with the NHC.