Steve Lyons...

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JtSmarts
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Steve Lyons...

#1 Postby JtSmarts » Wed Sep 03, 2003 6:56 pm

Hi everyone, Steve Lyons just said that recon found "165MPH winds in Fabian's center of circulation" That seems unlikely given his winds being dropped at the last advisory. Has anyone else heard or read anything to back that up?
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Re: Steve Lyons...

#2 Postby Stormsfury » Wed Sep 03, 2003 6:59 pm

JtSmarts wrote:Hi everyone, Steve Lyons just said that recon found "165MPH winds in Fabian's center of circulation" That seems unlikely given his winds being dropped at the last advisory. Has anyone else heard or read anything to back that up?


Actually, I'm not surprised that they found Fabian stronger, but that strong, that's I'm surprised...I posted earlier that Fabian has a much better look to it but if that's right, OMG.

SF
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#3 Postby JtSmarts » Wed Sep 03, 2003 7:02 pm

Stormsfury I was very shocked when I heard that, if its true the NHC may regret lowering the winds to 120 MPH at 5:00
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#4 Postby Aquawind » Wed Sep 03, 2003 7:02 pm

:jump:
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#5 Postby Aquawind » Wed Sep 03, 2003 7:03 pm

000
URNT12 KNHC 032325
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 03/2245Z
B. 22 DEG 56 MIN N
62 DEG 50 MIN W
C. NA
D. NA
E. NA
F. 86 DEG 106 KT
G. 346 DEG 14 NM
H. 939 MB
I. NA
J. 19 C/ NA M
K. 17 C/ NA C
L. OPEN SE
M. C20
N. 12345/7
O. 1 / 1
P. NOAA2 WX10A FABIAN OB 45
SLP FROM DROP AT 7,000FT/738MB
MAX FL WND 127 KT N QUAD 2011Z, ALSO FROM EYEWALL DROP
142KTS, 28M ABV SFC NW EYEWALL AT 2118Z.
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Steve Cosby
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142 KTS by Vortex Message

#6 Postby Steve Cosby » Wed Sep 03, 2003 7:03 pm

Note the "Eyewall Drop" - 142 knots (163 MHP - I think)

URNT12 KNHC 032325
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 03/2245Z
B. 22 DEG 56 MIN N
62 DEG 50 MIN W
C. NA
D. NA
E. NA
F. 86 DEG 106 KT
G. 346 DEG 14 NM
H. 939 MB
I. NA
J. 19 C/ NA M
K. 17 C/ NA C
L. OPEN SE
M. C20
N. 12345/7
O. 1 / 1
P. NOAA2 WX10A FABIAN OB 45
SLP FROM DROP AT 7,000FT/738MB
MAX FL WND 127 KT N QUAD 2011Z, ALSO FROM EYEWALL DROP
142KTS, 28M ABV SFC NW EYEWALL AT 2118Z.
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ColdFront77

#7 Postby ColdFront77 » Wed Sep 03, 2003 7:07 pm

Yes, 142 knots is 163.3 miles per hour.
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#8 Postby OtherHD » Wed Sep 03, 2003 7:08 pm

It's odd that Recon found such an impressive pressure drop, and yet the eyewall is now open to the SE.
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#9 Postby dixiebreeze » Wed Sep 03, 2003 7:10 pm

WOW! Almost in the "Gilbert" league!
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#10 Postby Stormsfury » Wed Sep 03, 2003 7:21 pm

I just posted an explanation for the sudden bursting noted in the Fabian fighting off the shear ... RECON found 142 kts winds thread

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=11799
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#11 Postby Stephanie » Wed Sep 03, 2003 7:38 pm

The pressure is amazing also - 939 mb!!!! :o
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#12 Postby AussieMark » Thu Sep 04, 2003 12:40 am

Will Fabian end up peaking at different times Pressure and wind or will the lowest pressure and highest sustained winds still end up occurring simultaneously.
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142kts

#13 Postby wxman57 » Thu Sep 04, 2003 5:42 am

"...MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 939 MB. IN ADDITION...AN EYEWALL DROPSONDE REPORTED A WIND SPEED OF 142 KT AT 28 METERS ABOVE THE SURFACE. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 110 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY

The reason Fabian's winds were not adjusted upward according to this report was that there was some uncertainty as to whether the dropwindsonde got caught in a strong gust or whether it actually was measuring average winds in the area.
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