A98E Is Interesting....

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DelStormLover
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A98E Is Interesting....

#1 Postby DelStormLover » Wed Sep 03, 2003 8:28 pm

Its new predicted track for Fabian shows Fabian making a B-Line to cape cod, the a B-Line to Nova Scotia
Whats up with that?
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Derek Ortt

#2 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Sep 03, 2003 9:31 pm

Persistence model. A 90-E has the same track
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wxman57
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A98

#3 Postby wxman57 » Wed Sep 03, 2003 10:21 pm

A98 is not a true dynamical model - it's basicall a forecast based on climatology and persistence as Derek mentioned. It looks at wher a storm is now and compares it to what past storms have done in the same region at the same time of year and combines that output with what the storm has been doing in the past to come up with a "forecast". Kind of like a baseline to be used for comparison, not for forecasting. Just ignore it.
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