FABIAN weakens but may re-strengthen

[AussieMark]

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WTNT45 KNHC 040832
TCDAT5
HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU SEP 04 2003

FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AND DROPSONDE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE HURRICANE
HUNTERS A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO INDICATE SOME WEAKENING. CURRENT
INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 105 KT...AND THIS MIGHT BE A LITTLE ON THE
HIGH SIDE. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW LOOKS FAIRLY SYMMETRICAL...
SUGGESTING THAT SHEAR IS NOT TOO STRONG. SINCE FABIAN SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER WARM WATERS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...SOME
SLIGHT RE-STRENGTHENING MAY OCCUR.

FABIAN IS GRADUALLY TURNING TOWARD THE NORTH AS IT MOVES AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. SIGNIFICANT ACCELERATION IS
LIKELY TO COMMENCE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS OR SO AS THE HURRICANE BEGINS
TO GET CAUGHT UP IN THE WESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND CONTINUES TO SHOW FABIAN
PASSING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO BERMUDA. ACCORDINGLY...THE BERMUDA
WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THAT ISLAND.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
CENTER OF THIS HURRICANE...BECAUSE FABIAN IS LARGE AND STRONG WINDS
EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/0900Z 24.2N 63.5W 105 KT
12HR VT 04/1800Z 25.7N 64.3W 110 KT
24HR VT 05/0600Z 28.3N 65.3W 110 KT
36HR VT 05/1800Z 31.0N 65.4W 110 KT
48HR VT 06/0600Z 33.7N 64.5W 100 KT
72HR VT 07/0600Z 40.0N 58.0W 75 KT
96HR VT 08/0600Z 48.0N 45.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 09/0600Z 56.0N 30.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL