Potential BOC development next week would be pushed N toward TX & LA. I have been concerned this scenario may occur this year. Both the Brownsville and Corpus Christi AFD now mention low pressure in the BOC and GOM next Tuesday.
Excerpt from Corpus Christi AFD
AS THE NEAR SFC WIND OVR THE WRN GULF MAINTAINS A
SIGNIFICANT NORTH COMPONENT IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE...
Excerpt from Brownsville AFD
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF.
MRF Runs
http://itg1.meteor.wisc.edu/wxp_images/ ... y_g211.gif
http://itg1.meteor.wisc.edu/wxp_images/ ... y_g211.gif
http://itg1.meteor.wisc.edu/wxp_images/ ... y_g211.gif
http://itg1.meteor.wisc.edu/wxp_images/ ... y_g211.gif
ETA Model Run
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/staff/carbin/mdl06/eta.html
BOC Next Week...........
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BOC Next Week...........
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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GulfBreezer
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Hopefully for the rest of year. Remember........
I stated Texas was safe from the current tropical system and hopefully safe for the rest of the year. Did not say Texas was safe for the rest of the year. I still have a concern the BOC could spawn a hurricane that will be swept N toward TX and LA. Another trough in the W US and LOW in BOC would set up a potential threat should something start brewing.
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Dean4Storms
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Portastorm
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Larry Cosgrove in his WxAmerica newsletter this morning (9.4.03) talked about western GOM development possible in the next few days, but heck, all I see is a ULL doing the ol' sit and spin. What gives??
Do the models take this ULL down to the surface eventually?
Do the models take this ULL down to the surface eventually?
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Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
From Dallas AFD...Strong W US trough
QUITE A WESTERN TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BE
IN CONTROL OUT WEST BY MID NEXT WEEK...FOR STEADY SOUTHERLY WINDS
OVER NORTH TEXAS WITH LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPING.
IN CONTROL OUT WEST BY MID NEXT WEEK...FOR STEADY SOUTHERLY WINDS
OVER NORTH TEXAS WITH LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPING.
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Stormsfury
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Ticka, this animation may have help a little better.
GFS out to 240 hrs
http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/loop.mrfnhpcp.html
GFS out to 240 hrs
http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/loop.mrfnhpcp.html
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cycloneye
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This season has been the year of the GOM.
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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Hey JT,
I don't know if it's a record, but Independent put out some interesting statistics in their seasonal forecast where over the last 60 years in years following 6 or more Gulf Storms, all years except one that had 3, had only 2, 1 or 0 storms the following year.
So if it's not a record per se', it's definitely against recent history. I put out 5 named storms in my seasonal forecast which verifies if Henri forms prior to making landfall in West Florida (which I think it will). So I'm underdone as well.
The thing about the BOC is real iffy. The only way I can see that happening is if Henri gets shunted off ENE once it crosses Florida. Only the GFS has suggested that, however, the new run posted by SF shows it coming back around day 6 or 7 (e.g. moves out ENE, comes back WSW). The ECMWF actually takes Henri back SW across Florida and into the Southern Gulf. I'm not buying that, but I think the models are sensing a trapped system off the Southeast Coast which may come back west (GA/SC) if the high building north of it is remotely strong.
Don't get me wrong. There's nothing I'd rather see (outside of the Saints trouncing Seattle this weekend) than another TS or Cat-1 hitting LA and getting me a day off next week. But it definitely remains to be seen whether it's something with a front or actually some type of tropical low.
As far as the recent GOPBI posts, are they serious? That board is kind of a joke. There are more trolls per capita there than anywhere. Me? I'll stick with flhurricane, s2k and hc/usww thank you very much.
Steve
I don't know if it's a record, but Independent put out some interesting statistics in their seasonal forecast where over the last 60 years in years following 6 or more Gulf Storms, all years except one that had 3, had only 2, 1 or 0 storms the following year.
So if it's not a record per se', it's definitely against recent history. I put out 5 named storms in my seasonal forecast which verifies if Henri forms prior to making landfall in West Florida (which I think it will). So I'm underdone as well.
The thing about the BOC is real iffy. The only way I can see that happening is if Henri gets shunted off ENE once it crosses Florida. Only the GFS has suggested that, however, the new run posted by SF shows it coming back around day 6 or 7 (e.g. moves out ENE, comes back WSW). The ECMWF actually takes Henri back SW across Florida and into the Southern Gulf. I'm not buying that, but I think the models are sensing a trapped system off the Southeast Coast which may come back west (GA/SC) if the high building north of it is remotely strong.
Don't get me wrong. There's nothing I'd rather see (outside of the Saints trouncing Seattle this weekend) than another TS or Cat-1 hitting LA and getting me a day off next week. But it definitely remains to be seen whether it's something with a front or actually some type of tropical low.
As far as the recent GOPBI posts, are they serious? That board is kind of a joke. There are more trolls per capita there than anywhere. Me? I'll stick with flhurricane, s2k and hc/usww thank you very much.
Steve
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GalvestonDuck
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Never enough Duck. I got raindrops from 7 systems (including by then ex-Atlantic Eduoard and 2 from the Eastpac). Too many years go by where I don't see anything at all that I've got to jump on whatever I can get. Of course I'm not looking for a Cat-4 or 5 or anything, but I'll take a tropical storm, 12 pack of beer and day off any time.
Steve
Steve
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