Tropcial wx obs...9-4-03

[WXBUFFJIM]

Good morning everyone. 8 AM EDT update of TD#12 places the center near latitude 27.8 noth, longitude 87.4 west or about 190 miles southwest of Apalachicola, Florida. The depression is moving nearly stationary still, but a slow east notheast motion is expected to commence later today into tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have ncreased to 35 mph with higher gusts. TD#12 is likely to become a tropical storm later today or tonight. If it's a classified storm, it's name would be Henri. The minimum central pressure has dropped to 1008 mb or 29.77 inches.

Rainfall amounts of 3-6 inches is likely with this depression over the Florida pennisula through today with locally higher amounts expected. However there is concern that this depression as it makes landfall could stall for a while over central Florida later Friday into early Saturday. If so, the rainfall forecast totals may need to be increased accordingly.
Storm surge flooding of 2-4 feet above normal tide levels can be expected along the west Florida coast. A tropical storm warning is in effect from Indian Pass, FL down to Englewood, FL. A tropcial storm warning means that the tropical storm conditions are likely in 24 hours or less. Wind gusts near tropical storm force have been felt near Clearwater, F recently as a line of showers and storms with an associated shelf cloud roared in from the Gulf Of Mexico.

Hurricane Fabian remains a dangerous category 3 hurricane in the west central Atlantic this morning. All interests in bermuda need to prepare for the worse as a hurricane watch is in effect. A hurricane watch means that the hurricane conditions are possible within 36 hours. An upgrade to hurricane warnings maybe required later today for Bermuda as the center is expcted to directly impact the island Friday night.

At 8 AM EDT, the centr of Hurricane Fabian was located near latitude 25.7 north, longitude 63.7 west or about 535 miles south of Bermuda. Fabian is moving towards the nnw at 8 mph and this motion is expected to continue over the nxt 24 hours with a gradual turn to the north later today. Maximum sustained winds are 120 mph with higher gusts. Fabian could strengthen slightly before reaching Bermuda Friday night. Sustained winds of 130 mph with seas of 25-40 feet are likely near Bermuda Friday night. After hitting Bermuda, Fabian is expected to weaken and transition to an extratropical system over the north Atlantic into early next week.

Anothr strong wave could develop southwest of the cape verde islands over the next few days, worth keeping an eye on. Stay tuned!!!

Jim

[JCT777]

Great update, Jim. Glad you are staying on top of this. Certainly is an active time, and the CV waves just keep rollin' along.