11 a.m. Disc. TD 12 moves slowly-Fabian more westerly.......

[dixiebreeze]

Very dark and light rain here, but no wind. GOM looks very threatening.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 04 2003

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
DEPRESSION CENTER NORTHEASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA COAST...HOWEVER...
DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION. AIRCRAFT AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE
MAXIMUM WINDS ARE NEAR 30 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED TO THE
NORTHWEST OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...AND IN THIS POSITION IS
EXPERIENCING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR THAT SHOULD ACT TO LIMIT RAPID
STRENGTHENING.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 055/2. SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS LIKELY OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO GIVEN THE POOR RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE CIRCULATION
CENTER AND THE CONVECTION. GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A WEAK
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW OVER THE GULF AND SOUTHEASTERN
STATES OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN CALLING FOR A SLOW EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. AFTER THAT...RIDGING
BEHIND HURRICANE FABIAN COULD HELP KEEP THE DEPRESSION RELATIVELY
CLOSE TO THE U.S. COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY WESTWARD...AND REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND UKMET
SOLUTION.

THERE IS A LARGE AREA OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTER...AND THESE RAINS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS
OF FLORIDA. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THIS SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL
STORM OR NOT...IT POSES A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL/FLOODING THREAT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[JCT777]

Sounds like they are adjusting the track of TD 12/Henri more westerly. Or are they referring to Fabian? :b?: :b?: :b?:

[dixiebreeze]

That's referring to Fabian.

[Steve H.]

NO!!! That's the TD#12 Forecast. They didn't adjust the track of Fabian westward!!

[JCT777]

NO!!! That's the TD#12 Forecast. They didn't adjust the track of Fabian westward!!

That is what I thought. Just wanted to make sure I was reading it right. Thanks Steve.

[Guest]

I do think Fabian is gonna meet TD12 (or Elena) very close to Florida coasts. Predicted Fabian's north turn is not convincing me...

Ciao
Paolo