2018 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

With the official start about 2 months away, I think it's time to start this thread.

What do you guys predict for the season?

One important factor is ENSO. It looks like a La nina might appear which would put a damper on early season development but slowly warm up to neutral come summertime.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

2018 would feature a hyperactive Atlantic season (made an entire scenario about it) and near-average Pacific seasons

Big season for the Philippines and Southeast Asia next year, not much for the Marianas and Japan

[euro6208]

There are many different agencies in the WPAC but here is the most used and most recognize. Only the JTWC and NWS Guam uses the 1 min scale that the U.S.A uses.

RSMC JMA 10 Min
JTWC 1 Min
U.S NWS Guam 1 Min
Hong Kong Observatory 10 Min
PAGASA 10 Min
CWB 10 Min

[euro6208]

I had to post this again since they are more common here than in any other basin.

1952258N18178 1952091718 160.0 13W:OLIVE
1952296N06152 1952102600 160.0 20W:WILMA
1952363N07170 1952123112 160.0 28W:HESTER
1953219N08155 1953081118 160.0 08W:NINA
1955346N06142 1955121512 180.0 22W:RUTH
1956207N13145 1956073006 160.0 06W:WANDA
1957311N06171 1957111606 160.0 20W:LOLA
1958143N06158 1958052900 160.0 02W:PHYLLIS
1958240N08146 1958090118 165.0 13W:GRACE
1958263N13148 1958092412 175.0 15W:IDA
1959236N12139 1959082906 170.0 JOAN:JOAN(-)1
1959254N14148 1959091506 165.0 SARAH
1959263N11160 1959092312 165.0 VERA
1961248N18155 1961091112 155.0 PAMELA
1961250N07173 1961091200 185.0 NANCY
1961276N22152 1961100706 180.0 VIOLET
1962224N11151 1962081618 160.0 RUTH:SARAH
1962311N06154 1962110900 160.0 KAREN
1964247N09159 1964090706 170.0 SALLY
1964319N08141 1964111806 165.0 LOUISE:MARGE
1964344N06153 1964121218 170.0 OPAL
1965161N09151 1965061706 160.0 DINAH
1966171N09151 1966062600 170.0 KIT
1967241N15170 1967090312 155.0 OPAL
1967283N11150 1967101418 160.0 CARLA
1971311N06141 1971111118 155.0 IRMA
1973274N10137 1973100600 160.0 NORA
1975319N08146 1975111912 160.0 JUNE
1979275N05159 1979101206 165.0 TIP
1984294N04163 1984102612 155.0 VANESSA

Recon ends in 1987

1992277N16140 1992101318 155.0 YVETTE
1992318N06182 1992112100 160.0 GAY
1995293N05177 1995110100 155.0 ANGELA
1997283N07177 1997101718 160.0 IVAN
1997284N04179 1997101706 160.0 JOAN
1997299N07169 1997110112 155.0 KEITH:KETTH
1997333N06194 1997121800 160.0 PAKA:PAKA
1998281N11151 1998101312 155.0 ZEB
2000125N06136 2000050918 155.0 DAMREY
2001347N04162 2001122300 155.0 FAXAI
2004164N06139 2004061606 155.0 DIANMU
2004230N09172 2004082300 155.0 CHABA
2009325N06148 2009112512 155.0 NIDA
2010285N13145 2010101712 160.0 MEGI (Should be 175 knots based on recon. Flight level winds supported surface winds of 200 mph sustained)
2012 Sanba 155.0
2013 Haiyan 170.0 (860 mb and 185 to 195 knots?)
2014 Vongfong 155.0
2014 Nuri 155.0
2014 Hagupit 155.0
2015 Soudelor 155.0
2016 Nepartak 155.0
2016 Meranti 170.0
2018 Mangkhut 155.0


There were 8 from the 90's, 6 from 2000 to 2010 and already 8 for this decade. (Satellite)

The record is 13 from the 50's. 12 from the 60's. (Recon)

2017 is the first year since 2011 to not feature one and breaks a 4 year streak.

[euro6208]

Looking like a busy season for the Philippines, Southeast Asia, and Eastern Asia if this la nina pans out.

Right now long-range climate models are pointing toward a La Nina gradually developing. A La Nina usually results in storms forming farther to our west with stronger trades over the Marianas. Storms will still form, but less frequently, especially in the first half of the year.

[euro6208]

47 days left until the new season...Who's ready?

[CyclonicFury]

I hope next season is more traditional and not South China Sea storm after South China Sea storm.

[euro6208]

Next 30 names on the list:

Bolaven
Sanba
Jelawat
Ewiniar
Maliksi
Gaemi
Prapiroon
Maria
Son-Tinh
Ampil
Wukong
Jongdari
Shanshan
Yagi
Leepi
Bebinca
Rumbia
Soulik
Cimaron
Jebi
Mangkhut
Barijat
Trami
Kong-rey
Yutu
Toraji
Man-yi
Usagi
Pabuk
Wutip

[euro6208]

I hope next season is more traditional and not South China Sea storm after South China Sea storm.

Intensity wise yes (I know we want to see those long lasting Cat 5's) but this is far deadlier as they develop closer to land and out of the top 3 most active basins in the world, it is the most populated.

[euro6208]

Crazy to think that the season isn't over yet as the models especially GFS is still continuing with development. Christmas, New Year, and the 2018 season is coming right up! So while the Southern Hemisphere and Indian Ocean heats up and the EPAC and Atlantic rest and breaths a sigh of relief, residents of the WPAC are always on guard for what the world's most active basin could deliver.

[euro6208]

GFS starting to hint on some early activity for next season with twins. Another soaker for the Philippines. Poor them...

00Z



06Z

[euro6208]

The next outlook from TSR is on May 2018. Does anyone know of more typhoon season outlook? I know a few but I want reliable ones.

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

[NotSparta]

The next outlook from TSR is on May 2018. Does anyone know of more typhoon season outlook? I know a few but I want reliable ones.

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Nothing much is reliable at this point, once the minimum in Feb/Mar passes maybe things will get clearer

[euro6208]

Merry Christmas everyone. Tomorrow is just a week before another incredible season starts and 2017 is still spitting out storms.

[euro6208]

Last day of 2017 tomorrow as we say good bye and welcome the 2018 typhoon season. Wow! It's double celebration!

[cycloneye]

[euro6208]

Looks like the last invest of 2017 might become the first TC of 2018.

99W Thread

[euro6208]

Happy Typhoon New Year!

[1900hurricane]

Heh, I just woke up on the morning of December 31st where I am. Timezones...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

There's still two hours left. Nonetheless the next storm is going to be part of the next season (it's still 2017 here)