Stormsfury

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Sep 04, 2003 4:03 pm

An important discussion about why it was not classified as a tropical storm at 5 Pm despite the models iniciation as a TS and the pressure drop to 1002 mbs.I dont have a clue of why it is still a TD unless they want more data from another recon tonight but what is your take on that?

#2 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Sep 04, 2003 4:18 pm

http://www.tormenta.net/frame_page.asp? ... s_nt2.html

Well here is the discussion that says why they stayed with TD status for this advisory.

Stormsfury · #3 Postby **Stormsfury** » Thu Sep 04, 2003 4:20 pm

Luis, honestly I think it's the Grace syndrome at work here with recent critical assessment in relation to Grace. However, I don't think anyone would have been critical this time... IMHO, #12 is already a 35 kt tropical storm and should be deemed as such ... the low level center is totally encased in deep convection which has sustained itself and the center even relocated further into the deep convection. Shear is lessening over the system plus the relative shear (since the system is moving eastward). NHC will likely upgrade this at 8 pm but are being a little bit cautious, but I don't think anyone would be complaining if #12 was upgraded at 5 pm. In fact, more people are going to complain about the non-upgrade (me included but silently) ...

Not to mention the pressure drop as well ... but since the RECON is already investigating, they are going for absolute 100% certainty I suppose. I noticed Avila didn't write the discussion.

SF

#4 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Sep 04, 2003 4:24 pm

Yes it is a tropical storm now but as you said they want to make sure with the next recon tonight but no question that this is a minimal storm with 40-45 mph winds as this time at 5:23 PM.

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