Continuing GOM Watch

[GCANE]

Starting a new thread as a continuation of the convection firing and breakoff 850mb vort occuring in the North Gulf of Mexico.
Observations are showing a swirl in heavy north shear.
GFS has hinted on possible development into Wednesday.

[Aric Dunn]

COnvection building around the center. surface obs show a closed wind field. looks like a sheared TD is in order.

[GCANE]

[northjaxpro]

Well we have two vorticies competing against each other to get a TD classification.

This one is being sheared and hampered by dir air to its north.

The other one is taking shape just off the SC coast. I lthink the SC coast system has the best chance to get classified.The EURO did a very good job picking this up in the past 36-48 hours.

[GCANE]

Looks like this will at least hang in thru Monday where the air is forecast to significantly moisten up.
Shear not too bad either, particularly closer to the coast

[NDG]

12z GFS has this vorticity inland by tomorrow morning over the FL Panhandle. No TD here.

[Aric Dunn]

Convection Steadily increasing around the llc. It is pulling in plenty of moisture from the south. Chances of being a TD are going up as it moves slowly to the coast.

[Nimbus]

That is another transient vort that will be inland soon. Are we going to need a part 3 thread if something develops a little further west on the old frontal boundary?

The earlier vorts were on the south side of the front being sheared/steered by strong winds out of the SW.

[floridasun78]

you need mod say ok having too many part to this area part 1 part 2 part 3 too many part we should make it into one topic so we have 5 part by tue

[northjaxpro]

I will say this about this persistent trough feature, which has set up shop for about a week now across the Northern GOM, and across Northern Florida, and now off the SE U.S. Atlantic coast.

This has provided quite an interesting time in.analyzing and observing these meso vorts. I actually always find it fascinating watching these features evolve.

The downside is that they have contributed in bringing very heavy rainfall to parts of the Florida peninsula, with some flood concerns in some areas.

Now, the coastal Carolinas region will get some heavy rainfall this weekend as well with a potential developing cyclone off the SC/NC coast in the next day or so.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Guys its not a tropical system.

...no TD (despite how it feels)

[Nimbus]

I will say this about this persistent trough feature, which has set up shop for about a week now across the Northern GOM, and across Northern Florida, and now off the SE U.S. Atlantic coast.

This has provided quite an interesting time in.analyzing and observing these meso vorts. I actually always find it fascinating watching these features evolve.

The downside is that they have contributed in bringing very heavy rainfall to parts of the Florida peninsula, with some flood concerns in some areas.

Now, the coastal Carolinas region will get some heavy rainfall this weekend as well with a potential developing cyclone off the SC/NC coast in the next day or so.

The SW shear from the front is finally starting to die down, now is the time we sometimes see the tail end of the trough cut off and form a closed low. Looking at the buoys last night there were readings south of Louisiana and Alabama in the high 29.80's. Either the convection will dissipate when the trough no longer provides surface lift from shear, or some energy further west will be left behind to drift over warm SST's.

There is some dry air right on the coast of Soth Carolina but maybe east of Hatteras we will have something that meets criteria?

[fwbbreeze]

Pretty easy to see the rotation on long range radar.

https://ibb.co/q9PKZHk

[Nimbus]

Pretty easy to see the rotation on long range radar.

https://ibb.co/q9PKZHk

That is the old vort headed WNW inland, no signs of the new vort further west yet.

[Aric Dunn]

Pretty easy to see the rotation on long range radar.

https://ibb.co/q9PKZHk

yeah, the circ just got pulled to east into that building convection.

[Aric Dunn]

its interesting that the Euro moves this just inland then it gets trapped by building ridging and moves west just inland.

The pressure is slowly falling and buoy 42039 and winds have increased sustained at 29 mph

[NDG]

No indication at the surface that anything at the surface is strengthening from this weak circulation, pressures continue to go up.

[Nimbus]

its interesting that the Euro moves this just inland then it gets trapped by building ridging and moves west just inland.

The pressure is slowly falling and buoy 42039 and winds have increased sustained at 29 mph

On the north side of the front the circulation from the high usually steers everything west.
The Euro apparently believes all the energy will be taken nland with the current vort?

[NDG]

its interesting that the Euro moves this just inland then it gets trapped by building ridging and moves west just inland.

The pressure is slowly falling and buoy 42039 and winds have increased sustained at 29 mph

You call a drop of .01" of mercury from an hour earlier "slowly falling"?
Pressures in this area are actually higher than this morning and from 24 hours ago, recorded by the same buoy.

[Aric Dunn]

its interesting that the Euro moves this just inland then it gets trapped by building ridging and moves west just inland.

The pressure is slowly falling and buoy 42039 and winds have increased sustained at 29 mph

On the north side of the front the circulation from the high usually steers everything west.
The Euro apparently believes all the energy will be taken nland with the current vort?

yeah then back Sw almost back offshore. then wnw.. if it does not move that far to the ne then it could end up back offshore lol