TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12 LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
845 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2003
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SUNCOAST...
...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS
UP TO 20 INCHES...EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...
...WATCH/WARNING INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
CITRUS HERNANDO
LEVY PASCO
PINELLAS HILLSBOROUGH
MANATEE SARASOTA
THIS INCLUDES THE COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO THE MOUTH OF
THE SUWANNEE RIVER.
...STORM LOCATION...
AT 8 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12 WAS LOCATED ABOUT
200 MILES WEST OF TAMPA WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH.
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM WITH A SLOW MOTION TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST.
...CURRENT RADAR INFORMATION...
DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED AREAS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE EASTERN GULF....DRIFTING EAST AT AROUND 10 MPH.
...RAINFALL INFORMATION...
FOR THE MOST PART...ONLY LIGHT RAINS HAVE FALLEN THUS FAR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AMOUNTS AROUND FOUR TENTH AN INCH
HAVE FALLEN ALONG A FEW COASTAL LOCATIONS WITH RADAR ESTIMATES
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS A FEW SPOTS IN HIGHLANDS COUNTY.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE BY FRIDAY MORNING...LIKELY
CONTINUING INTO AFTERNOON...AS BANDS OF HEAVY RAINS MOVE ONSHORE.
THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE MAY BE IMPACTED...WITH URBAN FLOODING A
STRONG POSSIBILITY PRIMARILY IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS.
BY LATE SATURDAY...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 10 TO 15 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE STORM TRACK.
...RIVER FLOODING...
THROUGH TONIGHT...RIVER GAUGE TRENDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONSTANT
AS EXPECTED LIGHT RAINS OVER THE BASINS HAVE LITTLE IMPACT.
HOWEVER...THE ANTICIPATED WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO
BEGIN FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WILL PRODUCE
SUBSTANTIAL RISES ON ALL RIVERS...WITH CURRENT FORECASTS SUGGESTING
FLOODING ON ALL RIVERS FROM SARASOTA COUNTY NORTHWARD BY SATURDAY...
WITH MANY OF THOSE RISING TO MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS.
RESIDENTS ALONG AREA RIVERS SHOULD COMPLETE ACTIVITIES TODAY IN
PREPARATION FOR THE EXPECTED FLOODING OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON RIVER FLOOD FORECASTS...LOOK FOR RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS
UNDER WMO CODE WGUS42 AND FOLLOW-UP STATEMENTS UNDER CODE WGUS82.
FOR ALL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEBSITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW AND CLICK ON THE HYDROLOGY LINK.
...WIND...
THROUGH TONIGHT...SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 MPH
NEAR THE COAST...A BIT LESS INLAND. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE IN
STRONGER CELLS MOVING ONSHORE TOWARD DAYBREAK WHICH MAY PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS ABOVE 25 MPH.
...SURGE INFORMATION...
CURRENT GULF OF MEXICO TIDES REMAIN ABOUT ONE HALF A FOOT ABOVE
NORMAL...AND SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AS THE
SLOW MOVING SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST...AND STRENGTHENS A BIT...
WATER LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY RISE OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH
OF THE CENTER AROUND THE TIME OF LANDFALL SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
WOULD PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST...INCLUDING
AROUND TAMPA BAY.
...MARINE AND RIP CURRENT INFORMATION...
SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM. VALUES IN THE WARNING
AREA ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 8 FEET SOMETIME FRIDAY...LIKELY
CONTINUING FRIDAY NIGHT. MINOR BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE CHANNELED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS BEGINNING FRIDAY AND LIKELY
CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY.
...NEXT ISSUANCE...
THE NEXT TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12 LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN RUSKIN BY MIDNIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON TD #12...SEE THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER. FOR MORE INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEBSITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE).
9 PM HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
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