Wave well east of Lesser Antilles (Is INVEST 96L)

[Hurricaneman]

Looks to have the model support as opposed to 94L, this is the one to watch

[gatorcane]

And if this becomes Imelda that name is as bad as Irma

[DioBrando]

And if this becomes Imelda that name is as bad as Irma

IDK but I honestly now see 94L getting Imelda due to its sloooooooooow development, and this wave might likely nab Humberto instead

Am casting my mind back to last year with Helene and Isaac

[Hurricaneman]

What the GFS is showing is a merger with 94L and wouldn’t be surprised if this takes over possibly becoming the main system

[DioBrando]

What the GFS is showing is a merger with 94L and wouldn’t be surprised if this takes over possibly becoming the main system

What implications would that have then for the i tensity and track for future humberto?

[Hurricaneman]

What the GFS is showing is a merger with 94L and wouldn’t be surprised if this takes over possibly becoming the main system

What implications would that have then for the i tensity and track for future humberto?

Might slow development in the short term but things could get ugly farther west as slower development would mean farther west

[ouragans]

some days ago, ECMWF was showing that wave, then it poofed like 94L. Now they show it again

Euros Ensemble has been consistent in showing development of that system, and now it crosses the LA. Some members see a strong TS, others a TD, but it's mainly between St Lucia and Antigua. In other words where I am

EDIT

Here is the Euro 3 days ago with 94L NE of the LA, and the 2nd wave withsome development

[Emmett_Brown]

I can't remember what recent season it was... but I remember a couple of waves very close to each other, each with a lot of development potential. They traversed the MDR, and neither was able to develop, since they were competing for resources. These types of setups usually take a while to resolve. Sometimes the systems merge and form a large storm, but more often than not they don't develop, or if they both develop, they remain weak.

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS develops this by hr 162 and looks like it may need to be watched in the northern Lesser Antilles

[cycloneye]

00z Euro develops this one and tracks just northeast of PR.

[cycloneye]

This wave has been introduced in the 12z surface analisis.

[crownweather]

Mods - please delete this comment. Posted it to the wrong topic. Should have been posted over at the 55W tropical wave topic.

12Z guidance so far (GFS & GFS-Legacy) are trending in the direction of this wave developing in the northern Bahamas late next week.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Looks like the GFS shows this one coming in much faster; overtakes 94L and absorbs it.

[chaser1]

And if this becomes Imelda that name is as bad as Irma

I'm fully on-board with that! LOL. Imelda just sound's like a woman that you DON'T want to mess with!

[chaser1]

I can't remember what recent season it was... but I remember a couple of waves very close to each other, each with a lot of development potential. They traversed the MDR, and neither was able to develop, since they were competing for resources. These types of setups usually take a while to resolve. Sometimes the systems merge and form a large storm, but more often than not they don't develop, or if they both develop, they remain weak.

One example depicting what you're mentioning that come's to mind was pretty far back (1979), was David and Frederick. 'Course, David was the infamous storm that ravaged the D.R. Meanwhile, Frederick was ESE of David and was constantly hampered by David's outflow. In this case though, David grazed the Fl coastline and Frederick eventually re-strengthened into a hurricane and wound up in the GOM I think. I could swear though, that I remember one set of storm "twins" that emerged out of the MDR and that were not all that far apart where both developed and generally moved toward the WNW. For the life of me though I can't recall which year or the names.

[gatorcane]

The Euro is pretty enthusiastic about this one with both the operational and its ensembles showing development. Most are around the Lesser Antilles / Eastern Caribbean / Puerto Rico area area by day 10:

[WeatherEmperor]

The Euro is pretty enthusiastic about this one with both the operational and its ensembles showing development. Most are around the Lesser Antilles / Eastern Caribbean / Puerto Rico area area by day 10:

[imi.postimg.cc/htS8nHKW/ecmwf-ens-mslpa-Norm-atl-11.png[/img]

Gator,

The NAO is forecast to remain positive for the next 10-14 days which would favor some type of ridging near the US east coast. This system bears watching for sure.




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[gatorcane]

The Euro is pretty enthusiastic about this one with both the operational and its ensembles showing development. Most are around the Lesser Antilles / Eastern Caribbean / Puerto Rico area area by day 10:

[imi.postimg.cc/htS8nHKW/ecmwf-ens-mslpa-Norm-atl-11.png[/url]

Gator,

The NAO is forecast to remain positive for the next 10-14 days which would favor some type of ridging near the US east coast. This system bears watching for sure.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190907/01eb2a95e90d5063b8db1887200f297f.gif


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Yes and the Euro ensemble mean shows an expansive ridge parked over the SW Atlantic at day 10. Of course this is 10 days out so who know what it will really look like:

[SFLcane]

The system's approach would be more D14-18 which is when the ridge starts to weaken. Lots of time to watch

[gatorcane]

The CMC and GFS ensembles also look bullish and with stronger ensembles for development of this wave. Most have this intensifying near the NE Lesser Antilles, some south some north. I expect NHC to mention this wave soon once we are within 5 days.