11:30 TD 12 Discussion -- new conv. burst may strengthen....

[dixiebreeze]

system -- check it out wxman:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU SEP 04 2003

AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON REPORTS THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH SATELLITE
AND SURFACE REPORTS...INDICATE THAT TD-12 HAS CHANGED LITTLE. TWO
FLIGHTS THROUGH THE TIGHT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER INDICATED
SURFACE PRESSURES OF 1004 AND 1005 MB. THEREFORE...TD-12 IS BEING
MAINTAINED AS A 30-KT TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 090/06...BASED ON THE GENERAL TREND
IN THE RECON AND SATELLITE FIX POSITIONS. 05/00Z UPPER-AIR DATA
INDICATE THE DEPRESSION HAS ALREADY BEEN CAUGHT UP BY A BROAD
MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THERE ARE AT
LEAST 2 MORE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS UPSTREAM THAT SHOULD MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND GRADUALLY ACT TO TURN THE DEPRESSION MORE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTWARD. THE DEPRESSION
CURRENTLY HAS A SHALLOW CIRCULATION...BUT A RECENT BURST OF DEEP
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED JUST EAST OF THE CENTER...AND THAT SHOULD
HELP TO STRENGTHEN THE VERTICAL CIRCULATION. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE
DEPRESSION TO BE STEERED MORE BY THE DEEP-LAYER WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO WHAT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE INDICATING.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE RECENT BURST OF CONVECTION NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTER MAY
BE THE START OF MORE PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND
POSSIBLY STEADY STRENGTHENING. THE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY IN 12 TO 24 HOURS...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST
HAS BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL.

THERE IS A LARGE AREA OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTER...AND THESE RAINS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS
OF FLORIDA. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THIS SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL
STORM OR NOT...IT POSES A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL/FLOODING THREAT.

FORECASTER STEWART

[Biloxi]

Hey Dixie - This is an excellent forum. I got your last message concerning inability to read either all or part of my messages on the PBI board. I appreciate the reply. PBI board got totally messed up. I just signed on to this board and am still getting familiar with usage - seems very user friendly. Stay safe from the current GOM storm.

Biloxi ( BiloxiBoy on PBI)

[Anonymous]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

You can see both systems in this vapor loop. Fabian is on the right, swirling towards Bermuda. TD TWELVE is in the northeastern GOM sporting a burst of convection and it seems to be slowly easing off to the east.

Is it possible we may have TS Henri by the 11AM advisory Friday morning?





-Jeb

[dixiebreeze]

Biloxi, glad to see you here. Yes, it's a good board and I'm enjoying it. BTW, love the Biloxi area -- and Bouvier.

[Anonymous]

Hey Dixie - This is an excellent forum. I got your last message concerning inability to read either all or part of my messages on the PBI board. I appreciate the reply. PBI board got totally messed up. I just signed on to this board and am still getting familiar with usage - seems very user friendly. Stay safe from the current GOM storm.

Biloxi ( BiloxiBoy on PBI)

Welcome to Storm2K, Biloxi !!!

We are pleased that you've decided to join us!!!

We hope that you enjoyed your visit tonight here.

Have a very pleasant evening!!


-Jeb