Tropical Wave in BoC (TW #11)

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1272189758165393408

[Aric Dunn]

https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1272189758165393408

yeah I was looking at that thing earlier. was quite impressed. will need to be watched for any surprises..

it was just yesterday I think the EURO ensembles had a single member developing this and surviving through most of the central Atlantic.

[AnnularCane]

You mean the one that just moved off the coast, or the MCS-looking thing over Africa that seems to be encroaching on it?

Whichever, they're both pretty darn eye-catching.

[hurricanes1234]

http://imgur.com/gallery/0qftbNB

From last night. Such a perfect structure.

[SconnieCane]

Oh man, if we're still seeing these in September...

[aspen]

Oh man, if we're still seeing these in September...

If I'm remembering correctly, Irma started out as a similarly "robust" wave that became a TD almost as soon as it hit the water, and was named as a TS upon the first advisory.

Yeah, Irma was one of those quickly forming Cape Verde storms that got its act together soon after the precursor wave emerged into the Atlantic. I was initially doubtful of many long-tracking CV storms in the likes of Irma or Luis or Katia, but with the transition to +AMO and all of these tropical waves in JUNE, I think this is a sign that the MDR will be quite active come September.

[gatorcane]

It looks good now, but not for long. This imagery shows a strong SAL surge just to the north. That said, the waves are looking quite vigorous this year so we will see if this ends up being an indicator.

[Shell Mound]

Oh man, if we're still seeing these in September...

If I'm remembering correctly, Irma started out as a similarly "robust" wave that became a TD almost as soon as it hit the water, and was named as a TS upon the first advisory.

Yeah, Irma was one of those quickly forming Cape Verde storms that got its act together soon after the precursor wave emerged into the Atlantic. I was initially doubtful of many long-tracking CV storms in the likes of Irma or Luis or Katia, but with the transition to +AMO and all of these tropical waves in JUNE, I think this is a sign that the MDR will be quite active come September.

Perhaps none of this is surprising if the latest TCHP data are correct. The ITCZ wasn’t as active at this time in 2018-19. Was it also as active at this time in 2005, 2010, or 2017? Does anyone have satellite-derived products from that timeframe? Even in 2005 I can’t recall seeing such well-organised tropical waves so far to the south/east as early as 14 June. I also don’t think 2010 or 2017 featured such impressive waves by this date, but I could be wrong, so more data would be appreciated.

[TheStormExpert]

Isn’t there also a Kelvin Wave passing the Tropical Atlantic at the moment?

[TheStormExpert]

Oh man, if we're still seeing these in September...

If I'm remembering correctly, Irma started out as a similarly "robust" wave that became a TD almost as soon as it hit the water, and was named as a TS upon the first advisory.

Yeah, Irma was one of those quickly forming Cape Verde storms that got its act together soon after the precursor wave emerged into the Atlantic. I was initially doubtful of many long-tracking CV storms in the likes of Irma or Luis or Katia, but with the transition to +AMO and all of these tropical waves in JUNE, I think this is a sign that the MDR will be quite active come September.

Perhaps none of this is surprising if the latest TCHP data are correct. The ITCZ wasn’t as active at this time in 2018-19. Was it also as active at this time in 2005, 2010, or 2017? Does anyone have satellite-derived products from that timeframe? Even in 2005 I can’t recall seeing such well-organised tropical waves so far to the south/east as early as 14 June. I also don’t think 2010 or 2017 featured such impressive waves by this date, but I could be wrong, so more data would be appreciated.

It’s a glitch!

[Shell Mound]

Yeah, Irma was one of those quickly forming Cape Verde storms that got its act together soon after the precursor wave emerged into the Atlantic. I was initially doubtful of many long-tracking CV storms in the likes of Irma or Luis or Katia, but with the transition to +AMO and all of these tropical waves in JUNE, I think this is a sign that the MDR will be quite active come September.

Perhaps none of this is surprising if the latest TCHP data are correct. The ITCZ wasn’t as active at this time in 2018-19. Was it also as active at this time in 2005, 2010, or 2017? Does anyone have satellite-derived products from that timeframe? Even in 2005 I can’t recall seeing such well-organised tropical waves so far to the south/east as early as 14 June. I also don’t think 2010 or 2017 featured such impressive waves by this date, but I could be wrong, so more data would be appreciated.

It’s a glitch!

I don’t think so, since NOAA has not accounted for it. It’s the only credible explanation for the exceptional quality and amplitude of the waves so early in the year. Even other seasons with a similarly active AEJ/WAM, including the past four seasons, did not see so many impressive waves as early as 14 June. The MJO is currently in the suppressed phase, so that’s out, too. The NAO is neutral or slightly positive, so that doesn’t explain things. Only significantly elevated TCHP/OHC can really suffice to fully account for what we are seeing now. I don’t even recall seeing this in 2005 or 2010, and I followed those two seasons closely from pre-season to Christmas.

[cycloneye]

Officially has been introduced at 18z surface analysis.

[Do_For_Love]

I don’t think so, since NOAA has not accounted for it. It’s the only credible explanation for the exceptional quality and amplitude of the waves so early in the year. Even other seasons with a similarly active AEJ/WAM, including the past four seasons, did not see so many impressive waves as early as 14 June. The MJO is currently in the suppressed phase, so that’s out, too. The NAO is neutral or slightly positive, so that doesn’t explain things. Only significantly elevated TCHP/OHC can really suffice to fully account for what we are seeing now. I don’t even recall seeing this in 2005 or 2010, and I followed those two seasons closely from pre-season to Christmas.

Shell Mound,

I'm not very well versed on the TCHP stuff. However, I have seen the posts with data showing the heat potential as being higher this year than in, well, other years lol. 2020 has been a very hot year globally thus far (https://twitter.com/ScottDuncanWX/status/1271839906223075328) so I could certainly imagine that to be true. However, aren't these waves coming off Africa looking pretty strong already, before they're over the water and thus affected by the TCHP? I mean, that overland system behind the thread topic wave looks pretty strong itself. No disrespect, just asking to learn.

[Ubuntwo]

Perhaps none of this is surprising if the latest TCHP data are correct. The ITCZ wasn’t as active at this time in 2018-19. Was it also as active at this time in 2005, 2010, or 2017? Does anyone have satellite-derived products from that timeframe? Even in 2005 I can’t recall seeing such well-organised tropical waves so far to the south/east as early as 14 June. I also don’t think 2010 or 2017 featured such impressive waves by this date, but I could be wrong, so more data would be appreciated.

It’s a glitch!

I don’t think so, since NOAA has not accounted for it. It’s the only credible explanation for the exceptional quality and amplitude of the waves so early in the year. Even other seasons with a similarly active AEJ/WAM, including the past four seasons, did not see so many impressive waves as early as 14 June. The MJO is currently in the suppressed phase, so that’s out, too. The NAO is neutral or slightly positive, so that doesn’t explain things. Only significantly elevated TCHP/OHC can really suffice to fully account for what we are seeing now. I don’t even recall seeing this in 2005 or 2010, and I followed those two seasons closely from pre-season to Christmas.

This is UM's oceanic heat content graphic.

Higher than most recent years including 2017, but not nearly as extreme as NOAA's TCHP graphic, which is clearly bugged.

[drezee]

It’s a glitch!

I don’t think so, since NOAA has not accounted for it. It’s the only credible explanation for the exceptional quality and amplitude of the waves so early in the year. Even other seasons with a similarly active AEJ/WAM, including the past four seasons, did not see so many impressive waves as early as 14 June. The MJO is currently in the suppressed phase, so that’s out, too. The NAO is neutral or slightly positive, so that doesn’t explain things. Only significantly elevated TCHP/OHC can really suffice to fully account for what we are seeing now. I don’t even recall seeing this in 2005 or 2010, and I followed those two seasons closely from pre-season to Christmas.

This is UM's oceanic heat content graphic.
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/494079865050497041/721855167770656788/ohc_aQG3_latest_natl.png
Higher than most recent years including 2017, but not nearly as extreme as NOAA's TCHP graphic, which is clearly bugged.

NOAA TCHP is wrong because of the 26C depth. The depth scale has shifted. Therefore, the TCHP calculation is incorporating too much depth.

[cycloneye]

TWD

The axis of a tropical wave is just moving off the west coast of
Africa near 16W, moving westward at 15 kt. Numerous moderate
scattered strong convection is from 03N- 10N between 14W and 20W.

[ConvergenceZone]

these waves coming off of Africa in June are absolutely insane! I've never seen such intense wave action so early in the season. Even the weather channel had an article about it this weekend. It's a gonna be a crazy season folks, in my opinion....

[cycloneye]

So far is a keeper.

[SFLcane]

Seriously...

[AutoPenalti]

Seriously...

https://i.imgur.com/KQRyMnF.gif

Friction-induced convection, once it splashes, dry air ahead of it will suck it dry.