dixiebreeze About TD #12

[John]

I believe the LLCC was kind of exposed to the NW of that deep ball of convection, Reconnaissance confirmed the location of the center and Extrapolated a surface pressure of 1005 MB at 27.6N / 85.7W. However It may not be entirely impossible that the center could reform under the deeper thunderstorms your looking at, and indeed that's what im leaning toward, For now the system should remain weak and hears why, WV imagery suggests a weak trough or shear axis is embedded in the anticyclone just west of the depression which is restricting the outflow to the west, deep convection is still poorly organized, these points suggest intensification should be slow with an end possibly resulting in more of an Extratropical kind of solution / event. I think the cyclone is going to shear off and evolve into a hybrid or subtropical cyclone, for now this is the best compromise between possible weakening due to shear and deepening due to baroclinic interaction. The end result will still be heavy rain and wind for your area.

[dixiebreeze]

John, I certainly agree and the 11:30 TD 12 Discussion bears out your analysis, I believe. Thank you for the help.