Predict the rest of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season

[Shell Mound]

Let’s do this, storm by storm. I’ll start, just for fun:

Edouard. Short-lived; forms east of the Windward Islands in late July, heads WNW, peaks at 40 knots (45 mph), encounters the TUTT and then degenerates into an open wave, having lasted nearly two days; small in extent.

Fay. Forms near Naples, FL, in late August and curves NW into Saint Andrews Bay with peak winds of 50 knots (60 mph), then stalls and accelerates NNE over the interior Southeast before dissipating; lasts two and a half days.

Gonzalo. Long-lived CV major hurricane, forms in late August, heads WNW; first peaks at 155 knots (180 mph), passes just N of Leeward Islands, undergoes ERC, passes through S Bahamas as Cat-4, restrengthens to 165 knots (190 mph) over Gulf Stream, hits Perrine, FL, at maximum intensity, then enters GoM and hits S of Mobile, AL, as Cat-4, stalls, and curves NNW over land.

Hanna. Forms SSW of Tampa Bay in early September, peaks at 45 knots (50 mph), curves NE and ENE over Cedar Key, gets sheared apart as it crosses N FL, dissipates over SW Atlantic, to the E of Jacksonville.

Isaias. Forms east of Leeward Islands in late September, rapidly intensifies to Cat-4, strikes islands with peak winds of 125 knots (145 mph), curves NW and N over SW Atlantic as it temporarily weakens, then briefly restrengthens to low-end Cat-4 as it turns NNE, later becomes ET and passes just east of Newfoundland.

Josephine. Forms west of Jamaica, shortly after Isaias; rapidly intensifies to Cat-3, makes landfall near Chetumal, Yucatán, with winds of 105 knots (120 mph); heads WNW across Yucatán into BoC/SW GoM, turns NNW, rapidly intensifies to Cat-5 with peak winds of 150 knots (175 mph), then undergoes ERC and interacts with land, strikes South Padre Island, TX, as high-end Cat-4, stalls, then curves NE across East TX.

Kyle. Forms east of Windward Islands in early October, curves N, strengthens to low-end Cat-2, then fluctuates between TS and Cat-1 status as it heads NE and ENE toward the Azores, becomes extratropical after affecting the Azores as a minimal hurricane.

Laura. Unusually, forms from tropical wave over S Bahamas in late October, then curves NNW and N, hits Grand Bahama as strengthening Cat-1, later peaks with winds of 110 knots (125 mph) over Gulf Stream, then heads ENE offshore of the Outer Banks and later becomes extratropical.

Marco. Small system, forms near Cayman Islands in early November, heads WNW, peaks at 45 knots (50 mph), strikes Isla de la Juventud, Cuba, then sharply veers ENE and loses tropical characteristics near Andros, Bahamas.

Seasonal total: 13 NS / 5 H / 4 MH
Retired names: Gonzalo, Isaias, Josephine
Summary: Season ends up underperforming in terms of NS, but yields two of the strongest U.S. landfalls on record, Gonzalo and Josephine; both of these storms generate most of the season’s ACE, along with Isaias. (Gonzalo ends up beating the 1935 Labor Day hurricane’s pressure by a millibar, while Josephine becomes the strongest TX landfall on record, beating the 1886 Indianola hurricane’s wind and pressure, but falling just short of Cat-5 status at landfall.) Isaias also causes severe damage to several of the same islands that Irma hit, but fortunately is a bit weaker than Irma. Gonzalo’s eyewall devastates metropolitan Miami, FL, and crushes Mobile, AL, while generating severe flooding and storm surge from South FL to Mobile Bay. Josephine also permanently reconfigures portions of the South-TX coastline and generates prolific rainfall over and near the Rio Grande Valley, along with much of coastal TX/SW LA.

[aspen]

We will probably get Edouard and Fay in July. Edouard come out of that decaying frontal system the models have been showing, and Fay will be the season’s first MDR storm sometime later in the month, either a strong TS or a weak hurricane.

Gonzalo, Hanna, and Isaias will all form in August, with Isaias coming in at the very end of the month like Irma. Hanna will be the first Big One of the year and find a sweet spot in the western Caribbean, between Mexico and Cuba, to explode to a high end Cat 4 or a Cat 5. Think of a track similar to Allen ‘80 (although not NEARLY as intense). I’m very wary of Hanna because it’s a name that not only has been used for only weak systems, but it should’ve been retired years ago. These are the same reasons I was wary of Matthew back in 2016, and look how that turned out.

Due to a storm WAM, a +AMO pattern, and ENSO likely within a cool-neutral state, September will be extremely active like 2004, 2005, 2010, and 2017. I’m guessing about six named storms and two major hurricanes (not including Isaias, which technically counts towards August), one of which will be a MDR long-tracker and the other will be a home-grown system in the NW Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico. That’ll be Josephine, Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, and Omar by the end of the month. Only four more systems (Paulette, Rene, Sally, and Teddy) will form by the time the season ends, with one of them being another home-grown major. The rest will be TS or, at the most, a C1 hurricane.

Predicted season total: 19/9/5, ACE of 190-230. A hyperactive year, but slightly less hurricanes, MH, and ACE than 2017 despite beating it out in terms of named storms.

[Monsoonjr99]

Let’s do this, storm by storm. I’ll start, just for fun:

--snip--

Seasonal total: 13 NS / 5 H / 4 MH
Retired names: Gonzalo, Isaias, Josephine
Summary: Season ends up underperforming in terms of NS, but yields two of the strongest U.S. landfalls on record, Gonzalo and Josephine; both of these storms generate most of the season’s ACE, along with Isaias. (Gonzalo ends up beating the 1935 Labor Day hurricane’s pressure by a millibar, while Josephine becomes the strongest TX landfall on record, beating the 1886 Indianola hurricane’s wind and pressure, but falling just short of Cat-5 status at landfall.) Isaias also causes severe damage to several of the same islands that Irma hit, but fortunately is a bit weaker than Irma. Gonzalo’s eyewall devastates metropolitan Miami, FL, and crushes Mobile, AL, while generating severe flooding and storm surge from South FL to Mobile Bay. Josephine also permanently reconfigures portions of the South-TX coastline and generates prolific rainfall over and near the Rio Grande Valley, along with much of coastal TX/SW LA.

Weren't you calling for a fishy OTS season not that long ago? What changed to make you think 2020 will be so high-impact?

[Ubuntwo]

I’m thinking 17-20 named storms. Of those maybe 8-10 become hurricanes and 4 of those are majors.

As for impacts I think the US takes a few hurricane hits, one major in peninsular Florida, a cat 2 on the north gulf coast, and a cat 1 on the outer banks. Thinking the Antilles take a major as well, and that Mexico takes a couple low end canes - one striking the Yucatán from the Caribbean and the other coming in from the Gulf.

Additionally, a few of the tropical storms have notable impacts (Cristobal falls in here). The other 8-11 systems are basically inconsequential.

[AutoPenalti]

Seasonal total: 11 NS / 3 H / 1 MH
Retired names: None
Summary: Season ends up underperforming from the unusually high SAL thanks to the AEW. 1 Major Hurricane ends up going OTS well away from any land masses. 3 Tropical Storms struggle, but ultimately reach Hurricane status, with impending shear from TUTT’s. Dry air ultimately defines the season despite the active ingredients that would otherwise establish an active season.

[CyclonicFury]

Seasonal total: 11 NS / 3 H / 1 MH
Retired names: None
Summary: Season ends up underperforming from the unusually high SAL thanks to the AEW. 1 Major Hurricane ends up going OTS well away from any land masses. 3 Tropical Storms struggle, but ultimately reach Hurricane status, with impending shear from TUTT’s. Dry air ultimately defines the season despite the active ingredients that would otherwise establish an active season.

That's extremely bearish, I highly doubt SAL will suppress activity that much when the MDR is warmer than normal and shear is expected to be below normal. SAL outbreaks happen every year during the summer, there was a big SAL outbreak just before Irma formed in 2017 and Dorian in 2019.

[Kiko Snowe]

Personally, I believe 16-19 NS is a good enough range for the overall activity of the season. 7-10 Hurricanes and 3-5 Majors also seem pretty fair, given the current activity.

I think July could be a little slow, though it's still likely to see atleast 1 NS imo. I can see activity really picking up by late August, eventually turning into a well above-average, possibly hyperactive season. It's a bit too early for me to make fair predictions about August onward, though my predictions remain largely unchanged from what I was expecting before the start of the season.

[MarioProtVI]

Seasonal total: 11 NS / 3 H / 1 MH
Retired names: None
Summary: Season ends up underperforming from the unusually high SAL thanks to the AEW. 1 Major Hurricane ends up going OTS well away from any land masses. 3 Tropical Storms struggle, but ultimately reach Hurricane status, with impending shear from TUTT’s. Dry air ultimately defines the season despite the active ingredients that would otherwise establish an active season.

This is almost suggesting a 2013 repeat, which is extremely unlikely to happen.

[Ubuntwo]

Seasonal total: 11 NS / 3 H / 1 MH
Retired names: None
Summary: Season ends up underperforming from the unusually high SAL thanks to the AEW. 1 Major Hurricane ends up going OTS well away from any land masses. 3 Tropical Storms struggle, but ultimately reach Hurricane status, with impending shear from TUTT’s. Dry air ultimately defines the season despite the active ingredients that would otherwise establish an active season.

If the AEWs are intense enough to produce significant SAL through peak season, then I think dry air is the last of your concerns.

[TheStormExpert]

Seasonal total: 11 NS / 3 H / 1 MH
Retired names: None
Summary: Season ends up underperforming from the unusually high SAL thanks to the AEW. 1 Major Hurricane ends up going OTS well away from any land masses. 3 Tropical Storms struggle, but ultimately reach Hurricane status, with impending shear from TUTT’s. Dry air ultimately defines the season despite the active ingredients that would otherwise establish an active season.

I hope you’re right but I have doubts we see anything less than two majors.

[aspen]

I just have this nagging suspicion that one storm is going to try and challenge Wilma, Gilbert, and Allen for one of the top spots of the most intense Atlantic hurricanes list. Some system in September or October is going to find a sweet spot in the western Caribbean, somewhere between CA/Yucatán and Cuba, and blow up like crazy. Just looking at how the Caribbean is expected to be favorable this year and that above-average pocket of high OHC south of Cuba, I think there’s a very decent chance of that region spawning an absolute monster.

Allen (165 kt/899 mbar), Gilbert (160 kt/888 mbar), Mitch (155 kt/905 mbar), Rita (155 kt/895 mbar), and Wilma (160 kt/882 mbar) all reached their ludicrous peaks between the southern Gulf of Mexico and the SW Caribbean border of Nicaragua/Honduras. It looks like that region will be quite favorable this year, while it hasn’t been so much (or at all) within the last several seasons.

[TheStormExpert]

I think a lot of the bearishness is coming from people who really do not want to see yet another active Atlantic hurricane season, especially with what’s all happened the first six months of this year.

Even I’m bearish, but knowing that the Eastern Pacific is underperforming big time more so than last season the energy has to focus somewhere and I think that’ll likely be in the Atlantic. We can prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

[toad strangler]

I think a lot of the bearishness is coming from people who really do not want to see yet another active Atlantic hurricane season, especially with what’s all happened the first six months of this year.

Even I’m bearish, but knowing that the Eastern Pacific is underperforming big time more so than last season the energy has to focus somewhere and I think that’ll likely be in the Atlantic. We can prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

I'm neither bearish nor bullish. I post about what I see combined with climo to keep it real. I don't let my personal feelings get in the way. Ever.

[Hurricaneman]

The rest of the 2020 hurricane season

Edouard: 85mph hurricane forms off the east coast July 5th and heads out to sea

Fay: 60mph forms at 55w and peaks near Barbados on July 25th

Gonzalo: 40mph forms in the eastern MDR on July 30th and dry air kills it

Hanna: 185mph forms at 50w 15n and makes landfall in Antigua As a 130mph hurricane and heads wnw hitting the northern Bahamas as a 160mph hurricane and hits Melbourne as a 185mph hurricane August 20th and exits Florida as a 125mph hurricane and heads NW towards Pensacola as a 140mph hurricane

Isaias: 130mph forms in the Bahamas and heads north landfalling in Cape Hatteras as a 120mph hurricane August 22 and makes a second landfall in Levittown, NY as a 110 mph hurricane the next day

Josephine: 100mph forms right off of Africa and makes landfall in the CV islands as a 100mph hurricane on August 31

Kyle: 45mph forms right behind Josephine September 1st but is sheared to death by Josephine

Laura: 175mph forms near the Lesser Antilles and makes landfall in Jamaica as a 140mph hurricane September 10 and peaks 2 days later in the Yucatan Channel and makes landfall as a 150mph hurricane near Corpus Christi September 14

Marco: 65mph forms near Bermuda and peaks September 13 and makes landfall near Halifax as a 50mph TS The next day

Nana: 120mph forms in the Bahamas and peaks on September 21 and track is similar to Humberto last year

Omar: 75mph forms from a MCV in the GOM and makes landfall in Houston at peak on September 28

Paulette: 60mph forms off the SEUS and landfalls in Myrtle Beach at peak on October 8th

Rene: 200mph forms in the western Caribbean and makes initial landfall in Nicaragua as a 50mph TS October 11th and moves north and bombs to its peak October 12th while moving into the Yucatan channel and moves NNE into Ft Myers as a 165mph hurricane October 13 and leaves Jacksonville as a 100mph hurricane and makes another landfall October 14 at the SC, GA border as a 110mph hurricane

Sally: 90mph forms in the SW Caribbean and makes landfall in Guatemala at Peak in October 21

Teddy: 70mph forms just north of Puerto Rico and peaks on October 24th and landfalls in Bermuda as a 60mph TS October 25

Vicky: 75mph forms in the western Caribbean and landfalls in Cuba at peak on November 1

Wilfred: 60mph forms in the central Atlantic and peaks on November 15

Alpha: 50mph forms near the Canary Islands and landfalls at peak in Morocco on November 23

Beta: 60mph forms near the Bahamas and peaks on December 15 as it turns post tropical the next day

Final numbers

23/10/5 with 3 cat 5 hurricanes and based on what I see this may not be totally ridiculous based on conditions but locations may be quite different and it’s difficult to pin that down more than a few day in advance

[MarioProtVI]

The rest of the 2020 hurricane season

Edouard: 85mph hurricane forms off the east coast July 5th and heads out to sea

Fay: 60mph forms at 55w and peaks near Barbados on July 25th

Gonzalo: 40mph forms in the eastern MDR on July 30th and dry air kills it

Hanna: 185mph forms at 50w 15n and makes landfall in Antigua As a 130mph hurricane and heads wnw hitting the northern Bahamas as a 160mph hurricane and hits Melbourne as a 185mph hurricane August 20th and exits Florida as a 125mph hurricane and heads NW towards Pensacola as a 140mph hurricane

Isaias: 130mph forms in the Bahamas and heads north landfalling in Cape Hatteras as a 120mph hurricane August 22 and makes a second landfall in Levittown, NY as a 110 mph hurricane the next day

Josephine: 100mph forms right off of Africa and makes landfall in the CV islands as a 100mph hurricane on August 31

Kyle: 45mph forms right behind Josephine September 1st but is sheared to death by Josephine

Laura: 175mph forms near the Lesser Antilles and makes landfall in Jamaica as a 140mph hurricane September 10 and peaks 2 days later in the Yucatan Channel and makes landfall as a 150mph hurricane near Corpus Christi September 14

Marco: 65mph forms near Bermuda and peaks September 13 and makes landfall near Halifax as a 50mph TS The next day

Nana: 120mph forms in the Bahamas and peaks on September 21 and track is similar to Humberto last year

Omar: 75mph forms from a MCV in the GOM and makes landfall in Houston at peak on September 28

Paulette: 60mph forms off the SEUS and landfalls in Myrtle Beach at peak on October 8th

Rene: 200mph forms in the western Caribbean and makes initial landfall in Nicaragua as a 50mph TS October 11th and moves north and bombs to its peak October 12th while moving into the Yucatan channel and moves NNE into Ft Myers as a 165mph hurricane October 13 and leaves Jacksonville as a 100mph hurricane and makes another landfall October 14 at the SC, GA border as a 110mph hurricane

Sally: 90mph forms in the SW Caribbean and makes landfall in Guatemala at Peak in October 21

Teddy: 70mph forms just north of Puerto Rico and peaks on October 24th and landfalls in Bermuda as a 60mph TS October 25

Vicky: 75mph forms in the western Caribbean and landfalls in Cuba at peak on November 1

Wilfred: 60mph forms in the central Atlantic and peaks on November 15

Alpha: 50mph forms near the Canary Islands and landfalls at peak in Morocco on November 23

Beta: 60mph forms near the Bahamas and peaks on December 15 as it turns post tropical the next day

Final numbers

23/10/5 with 3 cat 5 hurricanes and based on what I see this may not be totally ridiculous based on conditions but locations may be quite different and it’s difficult to pin that down more than a few day in advance

Is it too much to call this doomcasting based on all the destruction unleashed

All side that seems more of a 2019 + 2017 combination with such intense storms (and 2017 was right on the edge of having 3 C5s too). I don’t really see us getting to the Greeks but if we managed to do so that would put 2020 in a whole nother category.

[MarioProtVI]

I just have this nagging suspicion that one storm is going to try and challenge Wilma, Gilbert, and Allen for one of the top spots of the most intense Atlantic hurricanes list. Some system in September or October is going to find a sweet spot in the western Caribbean, somewhere between CA/Yucatán and Cuba, and blow up like crazy. Just looking at how the Caribbean is expected to be favorable this year and that above-average pocket of high OHC south of Cuba, I think there’s a very decent chance of that region spawning an absolute monster.

Allen (165 kt/899 mbar), Gilbert (160 kt/888 mbar), Mitch (155 kt/905 mbar), Rita (155 kt/895 mbar), and Wilma (160 kt/882 mbar) all reached their ludicrous peaks between the southern Gulf of Mexico and the SW Caribbean border of Nicaragua/Honduras. It looks like that region will be quite favorable this year, while it hasn’t been so much (or at all) within the last several seasons.

Haven’t we said this the last few years and it always ends up wrong? but there is the chance 2020 could end that thought too

[TheStormExpert]

The rest of the 2020 hurricane season

Edouard: 85mph hurricane forms off the east coast July 5th and heads out to sea

Fay: 60mph forms at 55w and peaks near Barbados on July 25th

Gonzalo: 40mph forms in the eastern MDR on July 30th and dry air kills it

Hanna: 185mph forms at 50w 15n and makes landfall in Antigua As a 130mph hurricane and heads wnw hitting the northern Bahamas as a 160mph hurricane and hits Melbourne as a 185mph hurricane August 20th and exits Florida as a 125mph hurricane and heads NW towards Pensacola as a 140mph hurricane

Isaias: 130mph forms in the Bahamas and heads north landfalling in Cape Hatteras as a 120mph hurricane August 22 and makes a second landfall in Levittown, NY as a 110 mph hurricane the next day

Josephine: 100mph forms right off of Africa and makes landfall in the CV islands as a 100mph hurricane on August 31

Kyle: 45mph forms right behind Josephine September 1st but is sheared to death by Josephine

Laura: 175mph forms near the Lesser Antilles and makes landfall in Jamaica as a 140mph hurricane September 10 and peaks 2 days later in the Yucatan Channel and makes landfall as a 150mph hurricane near Corpus Christi September 14

Marco: 65mph forms near Bermuda and peaks September 13 and makes landfall near Halifax as a 50mph TS The next day

Nana: 120mph forms in the Bahamas and peaks on September 21 and track is similar to Humberto last year

Omar: 75mph forms from a MCV in the GOM and makes landfall in Houston at peak on September 28

Paulette: 60mph forms off the SEUS and landfalls in Myrtle Beach at peak on October 8th

Rene: 200mph forms in the western Caribbean and makes initial landfall in Nicaragua as a 50mph TS October 11th and moves north and bombs to its peak October 12th while moving into the Yucatan channel and moves NNE into Ft Myers as a 165mph hurricane October 13 and leaves Jacksonville as a 100mph hurricane and makes another landfall October 14 at the SC, GA border as a 110mph hurricane

Sally: 90mph forms in the SW Caribbean and makes landfall in Guatemala at Peak in October 21

Teddy: 70mph forms just north of Puerto Rico and peaks on October 24th and landfalls in Bermuda as a 60mph TS October 25

Vicky: 75mph forms in the western Caribbean and landfalls in Cuba at peak on November 1

Wilfred: 60mph forms in the central Atlantic and peaks on November 15

Alpha: 50mph forms near the Canary Islands and landfalls at peak in Morocco on November 23

Beta: 60mph forms near the Bahamas and peaks on December 15 as it turns post tropical the next day

Final numbers

23/10/5 with 3 cat 5 hurricanes and based on what I see this may not be totally ridiculous based on conditions but locations may be quite different and it’s difficult to pin that down more than a few day in advance

Sounds about right for 2020!

[TheStormExpert]

I just have this nagging suspicion that one storm is going to try and challenge Wilma, Gilbert, and Allen for one of the top spots of the most intense Atlantic hurricanes list. Some system in September or October is going to find a sweet spot in the western Caribbean, somewhere between CA/Yucatán and Cuba, and blow up like crazy. Just looking at how the Caribbean is expected to be favorable this year and that above-average pocket of high OHC south of Cuba, I think there’s a very decent chance of that region spawning an absolute monster.

Allen (165 kt/899 mbar), Gilbert (160 kt/888 mbar), Mitch (155 kt/905 mbar), Rita (155 kt/895 mbar), and Wilma (160 kt/882 mbar) all reached their ludicrous peaks between the southern Gulf of Mexico and the SW Caribbean border of Nicaragua/Honduras. It looks like that region will be quite favorable this year, while it hasn’t been so much (or at all) within the last several seasons.

Haven’t we said this the last few years and it always ends up wrong? but there is the chance 2020 could end that thought too

We have seen some of the most intense hurricanes in this basin within the past four consecutive seasons. Irma, Michael, and Dorian are just a few. Not to mention the other Cat.5’s.

[MarioProtVI]

I just have this nagging suspicion that one storm is going to try and challenge Wilma, Gilbert, and Allen for one of the top spots of the most intense Atlantic hurricanes list. Some system in September or October is going to find a sweet spot in the western Caribbean, somewhere between CA/Yucatán and Cuba, and blow up like crazy. Just looking at how the Caribbean is expected to be favorable this year and that above-average pocket of high OHC south of Cuba, I think there’s a very decent chance of that region spawning an absolute monster.

Allen (165 kt/899 mbar), Gilbert (160 kt/888 mbar), Mitch (155 kt/905 mbar), Rita (155 kt/895 mbar), and Wilma (160 kt/882 mbar) all reached their ludicrous peaks between the southern Gulf of Mexico and the SW Caribbean border of Nicaragua/Honduras. It looks like that region will be quite favorable this year, while it hasn’t been so much (or at all) within the last several seasons.

Haven’t we said this the last few years and it always ends up wrong? but there is the chance 2020 could end that thought too

We have seen some of the most intense hurricanes in this basin within the past four consecutive seasons. Irma, Michael, and Dorian are just a few. Not to mention the other Cat.5’s.

Yes I know that but I was referring to the Western Caribbean being hyped up for an intense hurricane to spawn there based on conditions only to not verify - although Michael is a bit of a stretch considering it did reach C2 before it entered the Gulf. It is very possible we could get a strong hurricane in the W Caribbean this year though.

[TheStormExpert]

Haven’t we said this the last few years and it always ends up wrong? but there is the chance 2020 could end that thought too

We have seen some of the most intense hurricanes in this basin within the past four consecutive seasons. Irma, Michael, and Dorian are just a few. Not to mention the other Cat.5’s.

Yes I know that but I was referring to the Western Caribbean being hyped up for an intense hurricane to spawn there based on conditions only to not verify - although Michael is a bit of a stretch considering it did reach C2 before it entered the Gulf. It is very possible we could get a strong hurricane in the W Caribbean this year though.

Still wouldn’t surprise me if we didn’t considering every time we expect something will form and blowup in the Western Caribbean it doesn’t. Yes there is untapped heat potential but it takes a lot to get a system to take advantage of that.