Low pressure trough along the NE Gulf Coast (Is Invest 98L)

[AJC3]

Post away peeps.

[Monsoonjr99]

Not sure how much to trust the models yet, even with this in relatively close range. They've been flip-flopping a lot with this thing over the past few days.

[floridasun78]

got feeling we wont see system from this area only rainy weather for long weeekend

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS continues to hint that we could see multiple spinups.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1278451560310284295

[aspen]

18z GFS continues to hint that we could see multiple spinups.

It has been remarkably consistent with the 40N/60W system over the last few days, and still shows a weak TC forming there on Saturday. Should get a mention by the NHC soon...but it’ll probably then disappear from the models and never form just like last time.

[aspen]

I’m curious as to what will come out of MCV2, because unlike MCV1 (which I’m assuming is the precursor to the 40N/60W TC), it will emerge and stay over the 28-29 C waters of the Gulf Stream off of the NC/SC coast for some time. Models are very lukewarm with it, but if the circulation is small enough, perhaps we could see a spin-up of a stronger storm, maybe a weak hurricane. It all depends on how quickly a TC is able to coalesce from the MCV.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS continues to hint that we could see multiple spinups.

It has been remarkably consistent with the 40N/60W system over the last few days, and still shows a weak TC forming there on Saturday. Should get a mention by the NHC soon...but it’ll probably then disappear from the models and never form just like last time.

Yeah. Based on the modeling and recent model tendencies, we could be looking at 2 named systems or none at all.

[TheStormExpert]

I could see a Tropical Depression but models especially the GFS have quickly lost interest.

[Ubuntwo]

I could see a Tropical Depression but models especially the GFS have quickly lost interest.

The GFS still gets the first system to 1002 as it pulls NE. It's not fully warm core but still of note.

As for the second system, the one models were more intent on, stronger ridging keeps it over land for longer and over cooler waters closer to the shore. This prevents it from even transitioning to tropical and intensifying at all.

It's clear there will be a couple strong areas of vorticity moving offshore in the next five days. Sea surface temps are going to play a huge role in determining whether a system forms. Tracking 20 miles to the east could shift it right onto the gulf stream and allow much further intensification. Or, it could track in the opposite direction and never intensify at all. All we can do now is keep watching.

[Aric Dunn]

Lets mention the MCV that will likely move into the gulf and the one that should move off GA.

only one thing needs to be mentoned..

typically MCVs with momentum have a tendency to move farther along their path than forecast..

in this case South... meaning farther out into the Gulf.. and for the other farther offshore the GA SC coast..


noting the EPS that cluster over the northern gulf near the coast of florida panhandle.. I would expect that to push farther offshore..

And the mcv is farther west looks like it will exit the western panhandle or even Mississippi coast.

[floridasun78]

Lets mention the MCV that will likely move into the gulf and the one that should move off GA.

only one thing needs to be mentoned..

typically MCVs with momentum have a tendency to move farther along their path than forecast..

in this case South... meaning farther out into the Gulf.. and for the other farther offshore the GA SC coast..


noting the EPS that cluster over the northern gulf near the coast of florida panhandle.. I would expect that to push farther offshore..

And the mcv is farther west looks like it will exit the western panhandle or even Mississippi coast.

https://i.ibb.co/XkLtwcq/Screenshot-20200701-223943-Radar-Omega.jpg

we see that play out who know if models are right

[TheStormExpert]

I could see a Tropical Depression but models especially the GFS have quickly lost interest.

The GFS still gets the first system to 1002 as it pulls NE. It's not fully warm core but still of note.

As for the second system, the one models were more intent on, stronger ridging keeps it over land for longer and over cooler waters closer to the shore. This prevents it from even transitioning to tropical and intensifying at all.

It's clear there will be a couple strong areas of vorticity moving offshore in the next five days. Sea surface temps are going to play a huge role in determining whether a system forms. Tracking 20 miles to the east could shift it right onto the gulf stream and allow much further intensification. Or, it could track in the opposite direction and never intensify at all. All we can do now is keep watching.

Definitely not showing a formidable hurricane though like it was on its 00z run last night.

[Ubuntwo]

I could see a Tropical Depression but models especially the GFS have quickly lost interest.

The GFS still gets the first system to 1002 as it pulls NE. It's not fully warm core but still of note.

As for the second system, the one models were more intent on, stronger ridging keeps it over land for longer and over cooler waters closer to the shore. This prevents it from even transitioning to tropical and intensifying at all.

It's clear there will be a couple strong areas of vorticity moving offshore in the next five days. Sea surface temps are going to play a huge role in determining whether a system forms. Tracking 20 miles to the east could shift it right onto the gulf stream and allow much further intensification. Or, it could track in the opposite direction and never intensify at all. All we can do now is keep watching.

Definitely not showing a formidable hurricane though like it was on its 00z run last night.

That run was quite an outlier, the system tracked directly over the gulf stream for almost three days.

[psyclone]

the mcs appears to be fizzling fast with a skinny line of showers on an outflow boundary outrunning a degrading core.

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS has a train of MCV induced activity off the CONUS E/SE-Coast.

Models are NOT showing this right now but what if we see three named systems out of this event.

00z Euro is actually sort of hinting it through its 240 timeframe.

[northjaxpro]

The reliable models with the 00Z run cycle tonight (GFS, EURO , UKMET) generally keeps a large, strung out area of vortices from Apalachee Bay to across North Florida and off the Southeast U.S. through Tuesday evening. It is just one large mess to put it bluntly. One thing is completely certain: It is going to be an extremely wet and stormy period for my neck of the woods here across North and Northeast Florida for the entire medium range period (next 5 days at least)

The models the past three run cycles have consistently shown this messy scenario, and it is this type of situation in which you really have to factor in ALL variables on the table.There are all types of possibilities and scenarios from Apalachee Bay eastward to off the Southeast U.S.Coast into early next week.

Any one of these vorts could spin up and intensify and become one dominant feature. The sea surface temperatures have really had an opportunity to really boil with the recent heat wave over Florida and the Gulf Coast region. Therre are areas in the GOM where ssts are running up near 90 degrees. The big questions will be if any of these vorts can sink far enough south into Apalachee Bay and stay around long enough to possibly take advantage of these warm waters on Friday or Saturday.

Also, the same applies with these vortices when they traverse to off the Northeast Florida/Southeast Georgia coast. There had been a tendancy shown by the reliable models to spin up and intensify Low Pressure and move it northeast to off the Southeast U.S.Coast. However the past couple of run cycles, includng the 00Z tonight, the models have become much more tame on intensity with any potential system. This gives me a big pause. You never underestimate the magnitude of the Gulf Stream Current. We have seen many times of course in the past on how cyclones can really intensify and dynamically change quickly once these vort features can tap into it. The models have and still often struggle to grasp these factors, despite the advances we have seen in models with forecasting.

Bottom Line: A very challenging forecast period ahead this holiday weekend into next week. Lots of uncertainty indeed! It in all likelihood is going to be a complete washout here in the Northeast Florida region regardless! It truly is going to be a situation of watching these model runs very closely in the immediate future.

[GCANE]

[GCANE]

More models on board now showing two systems.
The one that spins up off the GA coast tomorrow is pretty much cold core.
N GOM late Sunday is warm core.

[GCANE]

LL Vort starts to devlop in 48 hrs over the MS River at the AR / MS Border under high CAPE / TPW conditions.
Moves into the GOM and consolidates late Sunday / early Monday sitting in a saturated troposphere.
Apalachee Bay looks good.
SE of Houston is a possible outlier.