What will the experts do in the next outlooks?

[cycloneye]

Here is a good poll for the members to vote about what the next batch of outlooks from the experts will be. The poll closes on July 6 at 6 PM EDT. I close it on that date because on July 7 CSU and TSR will release new outlooks.

Here is the experts forecast thread where you can see at the first post their numbers so far.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=120745

[TheStormExpert]

Will likely remain the same. I doubt they go up or down.

[Kiko Snowe]

Agreed, seems very likely that little will change with the upcoming outlook.

[CyclonicFury]

I think July numbers will remain about the same. For August, I could see a very slight increase or decrease depending on the overall activity of July.

The MDR remains warmer than normal, and ENSO is still likely to be in cool neutral or weak La Niña for ASO.

[AnnularCane]

Pretty much the same. Wouldn't be surprised to see an increase in August, although probably not a huge one.

I was wondering when the new outlook would be, although I hadn't gotten around to asking yet.

[SFLcane]

TSR especially CSU will raise there numbers in Aug.

[Shell Mound]

Honestly, I would not be surprised to see a notable increase, especially in terms of ACE and MH. The likelihood of cool neutral ENSO or weak La Niña during peak season is increasing, upward motion will likely be concentrated closer to the MC over time, persistence favours continued influence of wet Sahel/cool Gulf of Guinea, TCHP/OHC is at record levels in the MDR/Caribbean, and VWS is likely to be lower in the Caribbean than in recent years. In terms of steering, the lingering warm pool off the Northeastern U.S. and the influence of a neutral to slightly negative PDO would favour a west-based, strong Bermuda High. All in all, the odds of a hyperactive 2020 Atlantic hurricane season are going up as of now, especially if one blends the very latest CFSv2 + EC/UKMET runs, including weeklies. Given the bout of early activity, the number of total NS will likely end up closer to 2005’s than I originally anticipated, but the big story will be the high ratio of hurricanes/majors, given conducive oceanic-atmospheric conditions. Six to eight majors are definitely in play, regardless of overall NS, and a few CV long-trackers + a powerful Caribbean major will add tremendous ACE. Of course, the worst-case scenario is the possibility that the steering currents may favour westward tracks in ASO of 2020, coupled with otherwise favourable environmental conditions. My finalised numbers from the 2020 poll, while extreme, seem increasingly reasonable at this point—namely, 20 NS / 13 H / 8 MH with an ACE index of about ~260.

[cycloneye]

Those who have not voted yet have until 6 PM EDT when the poll closes.

[FireRat]

I think they will raise the lower range of their numbers, but maybe keep the higher numbers... like if they said 14 to 19 storms, it would now be 16 to 19 storms. They probably would keep the number of hurricanes and majors the same however.

[ouragans]

I would say 1 up in every line. Maybe 2 TS up

[chaser1]

Are there any additional Expert forecasts from here on prior to August 1st?