The future of #12

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Stormsfury
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The future of #12

#1 Postby Stormsfury » Thu Sep 04, 2003 11:14 pm

Latest shortwave imagery reveal the LLC is on the western edge of the deep convective flareup as of midnight EDT.

The future of #12 ... not easy to determine with such a divergent solution being offered by the model guidance ...

The ETA stalls it over the SE, the 12z CMC and UKMET strengthen the system quite a bit offshore in the ATL, with the UKMET making it a threat to New England. The EURO say no way and moves #12 gently out to sea in the ATL between Bermuda and the East Coast. The tropical models are no less divergent. Three of the model guidance runs #12 along and/or just inland across Coastal South Carolina, one runs inland, and the EGRR takes it east and then makes a sharp left turn slowly.

The problem is that after Fabian exits, a large ridge builds in behind and what's up in the air is if the trough catches it or not ... IMO, the trough will catch it somewhat, but the amplified solution offered by the UKMET and to some degree, the Canadian, just doesn't fly, and it's flat out wrong ... I'm more inclined to go with the EURO which has some support from the GFS tonight in keeping the system somewhat progressive moving ENE to NE and then out to sea ... slowly, but moving ...
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#2 Postby DelStormLover » Thu Sep 04, 2003 11:39 pm

Hey, SF, Just saw the GFDL, Interesting.....Seems to take td12 over the FL Panhandle and the just offshore or just inland to NC, where it would seen to turn N and the the circ just seems to die out around the N'rn neck of VA, and it seems to redevelop somewhere off of the delmarva or NJ, the close in grid shows TS-Force winds in the chessie bay and off of NJ.
A Very Charley-Like track.


What is you'r opinion on the gfdls portrayal and its track?
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