NWS Tampa Bay 12 midnight advisory -- up to 15 inches rain..

[dixiebreeze]

is part of the forecast in the comprehensive advisory:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12 LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1200 AM EDT FRI SEP 5 2003

...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SUNCOAST...

...WATCH/WARNING INFORMATION...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

CITRUS HERNANDO
LEVY PASCO
PINELLAS HILLSBOROUGH
MANATEE SARASOTA

THIS INCLUDES THE COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO THE MOUTH OF
THE SUWANNEE RIVER.

...STORM LOCATION...
AT 11 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12 WAS LOCATED
ABOUT 180 MILES WEST OF TAMPA WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH.
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM WITH A SLOW MOTION TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST.

...CURRENT RADAR INFORMATION...
DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED AN AREA OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE EASTERN GULF...FROM OFFSHORE CEDAR KEY TO WELL WEST OF FORT
MYERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN FORT MYERS
AND VENICE AND EXTENDED SOUTHWEST OVER THE GULF. MOVEMENT HAS BEEN
TO THE EAST AROUND 15 MPH.

...RAINFALL INFORMATION...
FOR THE MOST PART...ONLY LIGHT RAINS HAVE FALLEN THUS FAR TODAY.
AMOUNTS AROUND FOUR TENTHS AN INCH HAVE FALLEN ALONG A FEW COASTAL
LOCATIONS WITH RADAR ESTIMATES OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS A FEW SPOTS
IN HIGHLANDS COUNTY.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE BY FRIDAY MORNING...LIKELY
CONTINUING INTO AFTERNOON...AS BANDS OF HEAVY RAINS MOVE ONSHORE.
THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE MAY BE IMPACTED...WITH URBAN FLOODING A
STRONG POSSIBILITY PRIMARILY IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS.

BY LATE SATURDAY...LOCALIZED STORM RAINFALL TOTALS MAY RANGE FROM 10
TO 15 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 20 INCHES... ESPECIALLY TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE STORM TRACK.

...RIVER FLOODING...
THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT...RIVER GAUGE TRENDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN CONSTANT AS EXPECTED LIGHT RAINS OVER THE BASINS HAVE HAD
LITTLE IMPACT. HOWEVER...THE ANTICIPATED WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL
EXPECTED TO BEGIN FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WILL
PRODUCE SUBSTANTIAL RISES ON ALL RIVERS...WITH CURRENT FORECASTS
SUGGESTING FLOODING ON ALL RIVERS FROM SARASOTA COUNTY NORTHWARD BY
SATURDAY...WITH MANY OF THOSE RISING TO MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS.

RESIDENTS ALONG AREA RIVERS SHOULD COMPLETE ACTIVITIES TODAY IN
PREPARATION FOR THE EXPECTED FLOODING OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON RIVER FLOOD FORECASTS...LOOK FOR RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS
UNDER WMO CODE WGUS42 AND FOLLOW-UP STATEMENTS UNDER CODE WGUS82.
FOR ALL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEBSITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW AND CLICK ON THE HYDROLOGY LINK.

...WIND...
THROUGH TONIGHT...SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 MPH
NEAR THE COAST...A BIT LESS INLAND. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE IN
STRONGER CELLS MOVING ONSHORE TOWARD DAYBREAK WHICH MAY PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS ABOVE 25 MPH.

...SURGE INFORMATION...
CURRENT GULF OF MEXICO TIDES REMAIN ABOUT ONE HALF A FOOT ABOVE
NORMAL...AND SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...AS THE SLOW
MOVING SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST...AND STRENGTHENS A BIT...WATER
LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY RISE LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH
OF THE CENTER AROUND THE TIME OF LANDFALL SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
WOULD PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST...INCLUDING
AROUND TAMPA BAY.

...MARINE AND RIP CURRENT INFORMATION...
SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM. VALUES IN THE WARNING
AREA ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 8 FEET SOMETIME FRIDAY...LIKELY
CONTINUING FRIDAY NIGHT. MINOR BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE CHANNELED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS BEGINNING FRIDAY AND LIKELY
CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY.

...NEXT ISSUANCE...
THE NEXT TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12 LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN RUSKIN BY 3 AM. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON TD #12...SEE THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER. FOR MORE INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEBSITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE).

$$

RKR

[TampaBayGirl]

Hi Dixie, this is my first post on this board - I've been "lurking" on the GOPBI board for the past couple of years, and decided to come on over to this one with the format change at GOPBI. Your posts are always informative and I've enjoyed reading them, along with those of many others on GOPBI. This is the first I've heard that the rainfall totals could be so high - (I guess I was lulled into thinking that the effects of the depression were being overhyped since the rain on Thursday was relatively light here in Pinellas County!) But unfortunately it looks like everyone who lives in a flood-prone area is in for a long, tough weekend...

Stephanie

[Anonymous]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... ktbw.shtml


You have very saturated soils there in Florida where all these excessive rains are forecast to fall, and you sure don't need 12 more inches of rain.

Hopefully this storm will weaken, and move quickly east out into the Atlantic.



-Jeb

[ColdFront77]

Tropical system, including tropical depressions and even tropical lows and waves can bring a lot of rainfall when they move very slowly such as this system is doing.

Even if those parts of central Florida haven't had as much rain as they have had, 5 to 20 inches of rain would cause flooding, anyway.

[TampaFl]

Welcome TampaBayGirl. It looks like the Bay Area is ground zero as we are going to get alot of rain this morning and today based on the lastest radar trends. See Link.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS ... ktbw.shtml

Stay Dry & Think Sunshine!