Tropical Wave in NW Caribbean

[GCANE]

[GCANE]

CMC spins up a warm-core Sunday

[GCANE]

NAVGEM too a day later

[xironman]

The wave in between the two waves that had threads started looks best this morning.

A tropical wave located over the central Atlantic, with axis
near 40W from 05N-23N. It is moving west at 15 to 20 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N-10N between
35-45W near the monsoon trough.

[tropicwatch]

Kind of surprised the NHC didn't lemon this one too.

[abajan]

Kind of surprised the NHC didn't lemon this one too.

Its convection certainly has been quite persistent for at least the last 24 hours.

[hipshot]

I noticed on the weather channel that there were 2 waves coming this way, this was one I think and one in front of it. Is there some
reason these haven't been designated as invests as yet? Thanks

[Hurricaneman]

Looks as though the GFS and Euro have something to some extent from this wave especially the northern part which seems to have some rotation

The 0zGFS at Day 9 seems to develop that area in the Bahamas

The 12zEuro has some vorticity in that vicinity too which is giving me some vibes of something like Bob in 1991, Carol in 1954 and Belle in 1976 but not expecting anything as strong as of now but that could change depending on Future model output

[Nimbus]

I noticed on the weather channel that there were 2 waves coming this way, this was one I think and one in front of it. Is there some
reason these haven't been designated as invests as yet? Thanks

This is along 45W with most of the wave activity near -48.
Doesn't look much better than 99L did so it might just be showers coming into the Caribbean.

[AJC3]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
756 PM EDT Sun Aug 30 2020

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 06N-17N with axis along 45W, moving
west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N-15N
between 41W and 55W.

[AJC3]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
516 UTC Mon Aug 31 2020

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 05N-18N with axis along 47W, moving
west at 10 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is from
06N-16N between 42W-55W.

[Hammy]

Looks like there's some decent rotation starting to show up on satellite.

[AJC3]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
630 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2020

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 49W from 19N
southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 10N
to 13N within 60 nm of the wave axis.

[colbroe]

This wave now has a 1010 low attached to it

[colbroe]

content://com.android.chrome.FileProvid ... 878281.gif

[cycloneye]

This wave now has a 1010 low attached to it

The TWD has no low. 8 AM TUE:

A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 52W from 18N
southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection from
10N to 12N between 50W and 53W.

edit: added for continuity to show the wave progressing westward

2 PM TUE:

A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 52W from 17N
southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection from
06N to 15N between 50W and 54W.

8 PM TUE:

A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 53W from 18N
southward, moving W at 10 kt. No significant convection is noted
with the wave at this time.

2 AM WED:

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54W/55W from 19N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 17N southward between
50W and 60W.

8 AM WED:

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W from 17N southward,
moving W 10 to 15 knots. No significant convection is observed.

[Aric Dunn]

not sure if this was the thread before..

but this area (near 56w) is back..

it has developed a circ lol .. it is tiny.. and the models have been showing this area increasing vorticity but never develop it.

but being so small I dont think the models would develop it.

lets see if convection maintains..

[AJC3]

A lot of confusion here between the wave now near the eastern Caribbean and the waves to the east, including 91L (near 40W) and the mess extending from just offshore the COA to a little SW of the Cabo Verde Islands (20-30W). What the consensus of global model guidance is showing is that the 91L will get bypassed, once the mess to its east consolidates and begins to move more quickly westward, passing north of 91L. This may involve some binary interaction, and 91L still could even eventually get absorbed by (or combine with) the mess to its east.

A few of the posts in there will get moved to the appropriate thread.


2 PM WED:

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 59W from 17N southward,
moving W at 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection has developed
behind this wave from 11N to 13N between 55W and 59W.

8 PM WED:

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 59W from 20N southward,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is noted from
13N to 15N within 120 nm east of the wave axis.

2 AM THU:

A tropical wave is along 60W from 20N southward, moving W 10 to
15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 17N southward,
in the water, between 54W and 60W.

This wave is moving toward the portion of the TUTT axis over the NE Caribbean...

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers parts of the Caribbean
Sea, and parts of the Atlantic Ocean, between 50W and 74W.
Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and
isolated strong is in the area of the upper level cyclonic wind
flow

.

[Aric Dunn]

Look at our little friend heading towards babados this morning..

if there was just a little less shear..

good circ and mini pouch..

[Aric Dunn]

I would watch this little fella for the next 24 hours.

the TUTT is forecast by all models to start racing west which will put this low into a much better environment starting later tonight.

the models dont develop it but have they really developed anything this year correctly ? lol

and models very likely are not developing it due to some SAL to the north... which is very narrow and likely wont be a problem.