kevin wrote:To expand on my previous post I made the peak ACE calculation for every season since the start of the satellite era in 1967. So just to reiterate, this is the sum of the peak velocity squared of all storms (in knots). That sum is then divided by 1000 to make the number easier to work with. So if there were two 80 kt storms that would be (80^2 + 80^2)/1000 = 12.8 points. It's pretty much the same as ACE, but instead of taking a data point every 6 hours I only take 1 data point per storm and because of that I decided only to divide by 1000 instead of 10,000. In cases with unknown windspeed TDs I decided to go for 30 kt so they're also included in some way. I also added a few of the most active pre-satellite era seasons, but beware that the estimates for those season are most likely lower than reality due to missed storms back then. The top 10 most active seasons with this method are:
1. 2005 (207)
2. 2020 (178)
3. 1933* (149)
4. 2017 (143)
5. 2010 (138)
6. 1995 (130)
7. 1950* (129)
8. 1969 (126)
9. 2004 (123)
10. 1999 (120)
* = pre-satellite era
And here's the entire list:
2021 = 68 (so far)
2020 = 178
2019 = 101
2018 = 97
2017 = 143
2016 = 85
2015 = 58
2014 = 54
2013 = 42
2012 = 93
2011 = 97
2010 = 138
2009 = 47
2008 = 115
2007 = 85
2006 = 51
2005 = 207
2004 = 123
2003 = 106
2002 = 60
2001 = 97
2000 = 88
1999 = 120
1998 = 110
1997 = 31
1996 = 95
1995 = 130
1994 = 36
1993 = 35
1992 = 56
1991 = 47
1990 = 68
1989 = 81
1988 = 88
1987 = 35
1986 = 32
1985 = 76
1984 = 62
1983 = 25
1982 = 35
1981 = 83
1980 = 89
1979 = 78
1978 = 71
1977 = 52
1976 = 64
1975 = 80
1974 = 66
1973 = 44
1972 = 38
1971 = 78
1970 = 63
1969 = 126
1968 = 38
1967 = 73
----- (pre-satellite era)
1964 = 98
1961 = 115
1950 = 129
1933 = 149
1932 = 114
1926 = 102
1893 = 96
1887 = 102
1886 = 96
1878 = 83
Due to Nicholas 2021 gained an additional (65^2)/1000 = 4.2 points and now sits at a total of 72 points. That's already more points than 6 seasons since 2000 had at the end of the year. For comparison 2020 was at 73 points as of the 14th of September so we're actually pretty much on par with that year in terms of this metric. However, 2020 did have a strengthening Sally and Teddy (they were only a cat 1 and TS as of 09/14) as well as a slew of other systems that racked up the point total to 101 points before the end of September. If the MDR system (or the one after that) becomes a big one we have a chance to keep up with 2020, but even if we don't it seems that whatever metric you use, including this 'peak ACE' one, a significantly above-average season is very likely. And an overview of 2021's point total per storm:
Ana = 1.6
Bill = 3.0
Claudette = 1.6
Danny = 1.6
Elsa = 5.6
Fred = 3.0
Grace = 12.1
Henri = 4.2
Ida = 16.9
Julian = 1.6
Kate = 2.5
Larry = 12.1
Mindy = 1.6
Nicholas = 4.2
---
Total = 71.7 (0.1 point higher compared to the sum of the list above due to not shown significant digits)
The highest number of points a single Atlantic storm ever produced was Allen btw, whose winds would be worth a whopping 27.2 points. If we'd expand this system worldwide the highest value would be for Patricia with 34.2 points. That's more than the entire 1997 Atlantic hurricane season with just 1 TC.