2021 Global ACE: NATL - 145.1 / EPAC - 93.6 / WPAC - 205.3 / NIO - 19.8

[cycloneye]

Here is the 2021 accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) thread and the South Hemisphere already has ACE numbers. Let's see how many ACE units the North Atlantic EPAC and WPAC get.

[AnnularCane]

Here is the 2022 accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) thread and the South Hemisphere already has ACE numbers. Let's see how many ACE units the North Atlantic EPAC and WPAC get.

Shouldn't we do 2021 first?

[cycloneye]

Here is the 2022 accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) thread and the South Hemisphere already has ACE numbers. Let's see how many ACE units the North Atlantic EPAC and WPAC get.

Shouldn't we do 2021 first?

Ok fixed.

[cycloneye]

WPAC will get a lot of ACE in the next few days from the future cyclone Surigae.

[euro6208]

At this time last year, the WPAC was 0. It didn't start gaining ACE until Vongfong in May.

[euro6208]

1971 379.726
1972 413.043
1973 148.09
1974 205.287
1975 170.97
1976 301.265
1977 163.93
1978 236.93
1979 278.36
1980 237.785
1981 227.778
1982 356.105
1983 219.702
1984 274.743
1985 231.445
1986 334.902
1987 356.632
1988 227.94
1989 306.125
1990 382.502
1991 414.502
1992 473.642
1993 271.785
1994 462.75
1995 261.788
1996 425.902
1997 589.095
1998 156.46
1999 109.888
2000 244.412
2001 315.842
2002 390.58
2003 336.86
2004 482.09
2005 309.945
2006 321.735
2007 220.075
2008 179.4
2009 279.22
2010 121.397
2011 190.412
2012 303.315
2013 277.29
2014 278.452
2015 465.56
2016 263.155
2017 170.455
2018 361.365
2019 266.446
2020 96.1025
2021 ?

[TyphoonNara]

1971 379.726
1972 413.043
1973 148.09
1974 205.287
1975 170.97
1976 301.265
1977 163.93
1978 236.93
1979 278.36
1980 237.785
1981 227.778
1982 356.105
1983 219.702
1984 274.743
1985 231.445
1986 334.902
1987 356.632
1988 227.94
1989 306.125
1990 382.502
1991 414.502
1992 473.642
1993 271.785
1994 462.75
1995 261.788
1996 425.902
1997 589.095
1998 156.46
1999 109.888
2000 244.412
2001 315.842
2002 390.58
2003 336.86
2004 482.09
2005 309.945
2006 321.735
2007 220.075
2008 179.4
2009 279.22
2010 121.397
2011 190.412
2012 303.315
2013 277.29
2014 278.452
2015 465.56
2016 263.155
2017 170.455
2018 361.365
2019 266.446
2020 96.1025
2021 ?

The 2020 numbers seem dubious to me. The correct number should be around 140-150.

[euro6208]

1971 379.726
1972 413.043
1973 148.09
1974 205.287
1975 170.97
1976 301.265
1977 163.93
1978 236.93
1979 278.36
1980 237.785
1981 227.778
1982 356.105
1983 219.702
1984 274.743
1985 231.445
1986 334.902
1987 356.632
1988 227.94
1989 306.125
1990 382.502
1991 414.502
1992 473.642
1993 271.785
1994 462.75
1995 261.788
1996 425.902
1997 589.095
1998 156.46
1999 109.888
2000 244.412
2001 315.842
2002 390.58
2003 336.86
2004 482.09
2005 309.945
2006 321.735
2007 220.075
2008 179.4
2009 279.22
2010 121.397
2011 190.412
2012 303.315
2013 277.29
2014 278.452
2015 465.56
2016 263.155
2017 170.455
2018 361.365
2019 266.446
2020 96.1025
2021 ?

The 2020 numbers seem dubious to me. The correct number should be around 140-150.

Your right. It finish at 148.5

[cycloneye]

EPAC will get a little bit of ACE units with Carlos and the North Atlantic may get some from whatever forms of 92L and 93L.

[cycloneye]

Hi 1900hurricane. I see that CSU has issues so I ask you what are your ACE numbers of all the basins?

[1900hurricane]

Hi 1900hurricane. I see that CSU has issues so I ask you what are your ACE numbers of all the basins?

Apparently I need to fix something in my SH TIKE script, but everything else should be good.

[cycloneye]

Thank you.

[cycloneye]

The North Atlantic is way ahead of the normal average that is 1.8 units on this July 4th date. Let's see how Elsa ends on units to keep adding to the total.

[Stormybajan]

The North Atlantic is way ahead of the normal average that is 1.8 units on this July 4th date. Let's see how Elsa ends on units to keep adding to the total.

With that special advisory putting Elsa back up to 70 mph and is predicted to be atleast 75 mph for the next 15 hours or so...I can see Elsa possibly generating 8 ACE points before shes done (currently at 6.6 points). Even if the rest of the entire month of July is dead, Elsa has pushed us to 10 ACE points basically, so we still would finish above average for the month of July

[Teban54]

The North Atlantic is way ahead of the normal average that is 1.8 units on this July 4th date. Let's see how Elsa ends on units to keep adding to the total.

With that special advisory putting Elsa back up to 70 mph and is predicted to be atleast 75 mph for the next 15 hours or so...I can see Elsa possibly generating 8 ACE points before shes done (currently at 6.6 points). Even if the rest of the entire month of July is dead, Elsa has pushed us to 10 ACE points basically, so we still would finish above average for the month of July

I would expect significant downward adjustments of Elsa's intensity in most of the Caribbean in TCR, as the intensity estimates were likely too high at times with exposed LLC, and recon didn't really suggest intensity that high. Even then, we should still be way above average in ACE to date.

Edit: What I meant is that while I think the 75 kt peak was legit, Elsa probably weakened faster and to a lower intensity than current best track suggests.

[aspen]

The Atlantic is up to 12.0 ACE according to CSU. Once Elsa finally finishes up, it should be tied or even slightly higher than the EPac, at 12.5 ACE. Activity in mid month should put the EPac back in the lead, at least until the potential increase in Atlantic activity at the end of July and into early August.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12 ACE in early-July is pretty impressive.

[weeniepatrol]

Per CSU, the atlantic just surpassed the epac.

[aspen]

The Atlantic is now at 12.8 ACE according to CSU. Not only does it slightly edge out the current EPac total (12.5 ACE), but it’s also far ahead of schedule, comparable to the average ACE for mid-August. Even if the rest of July is completely dead, 2021’s ACE will remain well above normal for the time of year, and any system that could form starting in late July would only increase this further.

Being this far ahead this early and with a potential active phase coming up raises the odds of the Atlantic hitting the hyperactive ACE threshold of 160 (no I am not using those 1991-2020 averages because they’re too biased towards +AMO years).

[cycloneye]

Elsa ends with 9.5 ACE units and the total for basin is 12.8 units. The normal average for July 9th is 2.7 units.