Big ones for 2021

[AnnularCane]

What say we liven up Talkin' Tropics a bit and talk about what we think will be the big ones for 2021?

The names:

Ana
Bill
Claudette
Danny
Elsa
Fred
Grace
Henri
Ida
Julian
Kate
Larry
Mindy
Nicholas
Odette
Peter
Rose
Sam
Teresa
Victor
Wanda

The possibilities for me this year for now are Elsa, Ida (yes, the I storm again), Leisure Suit Larry, Odette, and possibly Rose.

And no, I am not currently guessing on any Greek names or whatever they want to use yet.

[aspen]

I wonder if 2021 will finally break the trend of Henri being a weak, pathetic, forgettable storm.

I’m getting a bit of bad vibes from Julian. Not only is it a name likely to be in the peak season, and the replacement of a borderline Cat 5, but it just seems fitting for a Big One. Even if 2021 sees a very active early season like 2020, Julian probably won’t be used until mid August at the earliest.

Ida through Odette seem to be the most probable names to occur during the heart of the season from mid August through the end of September, while anything afterwards would fall into the October peak and could be a late season Caribbean monster. Even with a La Niña, it’s very unlikely that 2021 will come close to the rapid pace of 2020, but an above-average season looks likely, so we could get quite deeper than normal into the name list once the first burst of activity in ASO arrives.

[InfernoFlameCat]

I am betting on Grace being a cat 2 that makes a powerful landfall in Florida then going on to strengthen to a large cat 3-4 and slam into Louisiana Katrina style. Just a guess.

[Fancy1001]

Depending on how active the season is early on, I have a bad feeling about Ida and Nicholas.

[Shell Mound]

TS Ana: forms off the Mid-Atlantic in late May, initially subtropical, peaks at 55 knots (65 mph) while heading ENE out to sea
TS Bill: develops over the BoC in late June, heads W, peaks at 50 knots (60 mph) before striking mainland Mexico
H Claudette: first hurricane of the season, develops in the MDR in mid July, peaks at 75 knots (85 mph), then gets ripped apart near islands
H Danny: forms over the NW Caribbean in early August, briefly reaches H status over the SW GoM, weakens to a TS before hitting TX/MX border
MH Elsa: long-lived CV system, forms in mid August, reaches Cat-4 status multiple times, makes landfall near Cape Fear, NC, with winds of 120 knots (140 mph)
TS Fred: strong tropical storm peaks at 60 knots (70 mph) while heading N and NNE just to the west of Bermuda in mid August
TS Grace: develops over the BoC in mid August, also peaks at 60 knots (70 mph), strikes mainland Mexico at peak intensity
TS Henri: forms over or just off West Africa in late August, heads WNW, hits the CV islands with winds of 50 knots (60 mph), then weakens and dissipates
MH Ida: long-lived CV system, forms at the close of August, peaks twice as a Cat-5 over the open Atlantic, strikes Bermuda with winds of 125 knots (145 mph), then heads OTS
H Julian: forms near the Leeward Islands at the end of August, heads WNW, strikes SW tip of PR with winds of 80 knots (90 mph), then weakens to TS over the S Bahamas and dissipates before reaching S FL
MH Kate: forms S of Jamaica in early September, RI into Cat-4 before hitting W Cuba, curves NW, N, and NE over the E GoM, hits Cedar Key, FL, with winds of 105 knots (120 mph), then accelerates over SE U.S.
TS Larry: forms over the far North Atlantic in mid September, peaks at 50 knots (60 mph) while heading OTS
TS Mindy: develops over the eastern subtropical Atlantic in mid September, peaks at 45 knots (50 mph) while heading N, remains OTS
MH Nicholas: forms over the S Caribbean in late September, heads NW and N, peaks as a Cat-5 before impacting Cuba as a strong Cat-4, then impacts the Bahamas as a MH before heading OTS
H Odette: develops near the Azores in early October and passes near those islands as a high-end Cat-1 before impacting Europe as a strong ET cyclone
MH Peter: forms over the NW Caribbean in early November, drifts around while peaking as a Cat-4, then heads N and NNE into western Cuba as a Cat-2 before becoming ET

Big ones are highlighted in bold

16 NS / 9 H / 5 MH
ACE ~210

[AnnularCane]

TS Ana: forms off the Mid-Atlantic in late May, initially subtropical, peaks at 55 knots (65 mph) while heading ENE out to sea
TS Bill: develops over the BoC in late June, heads W, peaks at 50 knots (60 mph) before striking mainland Mexico
H Claudette: first hurricane of the season, develops in the MDR in mid July, peaks at 75 knots (85 mph), then gets ripped apart near islands
H Danny: forms over the NW Caribbean in early August, briefly reaches H status over the SW GoM, weakens to a TS before hitting TX/MX border
MH Elsa: long-lived CV system, forms in mid August, reaches Cat-4 status multiple times, makes landfall near Cape Fear, NC, with winds of 120 knots (140 mph)
TS Fred: strong tropical storm peaks at 60 knots (70 mph) while heading N and NNE just to the west of Bermuda in mid August
TS Grace: develops over the BoC in mid August, also peaks at 60 knots (70 mph), strikes mainland Mexico at peak intensity
TS Henri: forms over or just off West Africa in late August, heads WNW, hits the CV islands with winds of 50 knots (60 mph), then weakens and dissipates
MH Ida: long-lived CV system, forms at the close of August, peaks twice as a Cat-5 over the open Atlantic, strikes Bermuda with winds of 125 knots (145 mph), then heads OTS
H Julian: forms near the Leeward Islands at the end of August, heads WNW, strikes SW tip of PR with winds of 80 knots (90 mph), then weakens to TS over the S Bahamas and dissipates before reaching S FL
MH Karl: forms S of Jamaica in early September, RI into Cat-4 before hitting W Cuba, curves NW, N, and NE over the E GoM, hits Cedar Key, FL, with winds of 105 knots (120 mph), then accelerates over SE U.S.
TS Lisa: forms over the far North Atlantic in mid September, peaks at 50 knots (60 mph) while heading OTS
TS Martin: develops over the eastern subtropical Atlantic in mid September, peaks at 45 knots (50 mph) while heading N, remains OTS
MH Nicole: forms over the S Caribbean in late September, heads NW and N, peaks as a Cat-5 before impacting Cuba as a strong Cat-4, then impacts the Bahamas as a MH before heading OTS
H Nicholas: develops near the Azores in early October and passes near those islands as a high-end Cat-1 before impacting Europe as a strong ET cyclone
MH Owen: forms over the NW Caribbean in early November, drifts around while peaking as a Cat-4, then heads N and NNE into western Cuba as a Cat-2 before becoming ET

Big ones are highlighted in bold

16 NS /9 H / 5 MH
ACE ~210

I think you somehow segued into 2022.

[cycloneye]

Grace, Nicholas.

[Shell Mound]

TS Ana: forms off the Mid-Atlantic in late May, initially subtropical, peaks at 55 knots (65 mph) while heading ENE out to sea
TS Bill: develops over the BoC in late June, heads W, peaks at 50 knots (60 mph) before striking mainland Mexico
H Claudette: first hurricane of the season, develops in the MDR in mid July, peaks at 75 knots (85 mph), then gets ripped apart near islands
H Danny: forms over the NW Caribbean in early August, briefly reaches H status over the SW GoM, weakens to a TS before hitting TX/MX border
MH Elsa: long-lived CV system, forms in mid August, reaches Cat-4 status multiple times, makes landfall near Cape Fear, NC, with winds of 120 knots (140 mph)
TS Fred: strong tropical storm peaks at 60 knots (70 mph) while heading N and NNE just to the west of Bermuda in mid August
TS Grace: develops over the BoC in mid August, also peaks at 60 knots (70 mph), strikes mainland Mexico at peak intensity
TS Henri: forms over or just off West Africa in late August, heads WNW, hits the CV islands with winds of 50 knots (60 mph), then weakens and dissipates
MH Ida: long-lived CV system, forms at the close of August, peaks twice as a Cat-5 over the open Atlantic, strikes Bermuda with winds of 125 knots (145 mph), then heads OTS
H Julian: forms near the Leeward Islands at the end of August, heads WNW, strikes SW tip of PR with winds of 80 knots (90 mph), then weakens to TS over the S Bahamas and dissipates before reaching S FL
MH Karl: forms S of Jamaica in early September, RI into Cat-4 before hitting W Cuba, curves NW, N, and NE over the E GoM, hits Cedar Key, FL, with winds of 105 knots (120 mph), then accelerates over SE U.S.
TS Lisa: forms over the far North Atlantic in mid September, peaks at 50 knots (60 mph) while heading OTS
TS Martin: develops over the eastern subtropical Atlantic in mid September, peaks at 45 knots (50 mph) while heading N, remains OTS
MH Nicole: forms over the S Caribbean in late September, heads NW and N, peaks as a Cat-5 before impacting Cuba as a strong Cat-4, then impacts the Bahamas as a MH before heading OTS
H Nicholas: develops near the Azores in early October and passes near those islands as a high-end Cat-1 before impacting Europe as a strong ET cyclone
MH Owen: forms over the NW Caribbean in early November, drifts around while peaking as a Cat-4, then heads N and NNE into western Cuba as a Cat-2 before becoming ET

Big ones are highlighted in bold

16 NS /9 H / 5 MH
ACE ~210

I think you somehow segued into 2022.

Corrected.

[Category5Kaiju]

Honestly, I am going to go with Ida and Mindy given the recent years "M curse" as well as the infamous "I" curse. I also think Henri, Julian, and Victor should be watched. I'm really not basing my latter guesses on anything concrete or any historic pattern of course.

[GrayLancer18]

For the male names, Henri, Julian and Nicolas stand out; as for the females, Grace, Kate and Odette.

If the season starts late, then Claudette, Elsa and Fred sound like big ones; on the other of the spectrum, if there is a hyperactive season, Peter, Rose and Teresa sound like they could be trouble.

[BadLarry95]

I’ll go with
Julian, Larry, and Odette being the bad ones of this year.

[mrbagyo]

For Atlantic - I'll take Kate & Mindy
For WPAC - my money's on Chanthu, Malou, Nyatoh & Rai

[zal0phus]

Claudette, Odette, and Sam concern me this year. Claudette sounds like a Cape Verde storm in early August, Odette gives me Caribbean cruiser vibes, and Sam sounds like a late-season MH that hits south Florida. Regardless, fingers crossed that this season won't even make it to Sam.

[Hurricaneman]

Heres my thoughts for 2021 with the big ones in bold


Ana: Forms near North Carolina April 25th and makes landfall at 40mph peak

Bill: Forms halfway between the lesser Antilles and Africa July 23rd and peaks at 65mph at landfall in Trinidad and dissipates July 25th in South America

Claudette: Forms right off of Africa August 10th and peaks at 100mph as it recurves into the Atlantic

Danny: Forms off the East Coast August 15th and strengthens to 115mph as it recurves between Bermuda and North Carolina

ELSA: Forms midway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa August 21st and peaks first at landfall on Antigua at 175mph on August 24th and recurves into the Bahamas as a 145mph Hurricane but unfortunately moves into North Carolina as a 125mph hurricane August 27th and dissipates over Pennsylvania

Fred: Forms near Texas August 23rd and peaks at landfall in Port Authur as a 45mph TS and dissipates over the Arklatex

GRACE: Forms north of Puerto Rico August 29th and rapidly intensifies and hits the Turks and Caicos as a 145mph hurricane and continues to Key west at peak of 190mph around September 2nd and makes a final landfall near Morgan City Louisiana as a 115mph hurricane and dissipates over Ohio

HENRI: Forms near Grand Bahama August 31st and rapidly intensifies to a 145mph hurricane off the Carolina Coast on the 3rd of September and makes landfall in Montauk, NY as a 125mph hurricane and 120mph in Warwick RI september 4th

Ida: Forms near Hispaniola September 5th and moves over Cuba the whole way and finally develops heading north to Panama City, FL as a 50mph TS

Julian: Forms off A Front near Bermuda September 5th and peaks at 50mph

KATE: Forms in the eastern Carribean September 10th and struggles until it hits the Yucatan Channel September 12th and rapidly intesnifies as it peaks near Sarasota, FL September 13th as a 145mph hurricane and goes over water at Daytona as a 85mph Hurricane and makes another Landfall near OBX as a 100mph Hurricane and a final landfall in Halifax on September 16th as a 75mph hurricane

Larry: Forms near the Azores September 25th and peaks at 80mph and makes landfall in Portugal as a 40mph TS

Mindy: Forms near the CV Islands September 25th and peaks at 45mph as it gets sheared by Larry and Dissipates

Nicholas: Forms in the Western Caribbean October 1st and makes landfall in Nicaragua at 45mph Peak

Odette: Forms south of Cuba October 5th and peaks at 65mph as it crosses Cuba and hits Miami as a 45mph TS and dissipates over Orlando

Peter: Forms near Bermuda October 8th and peaks at 75mph as it heads out to sea

ROSE: Forms in the Western Caribbean October 15th and bombs out to a peak of 200mph and head to the Yucatan Channel and makes landfall in Sarasota as a 160mph hurricane and exits south of Daytona as a 120mph hurricane and makes a final landfall in Bermuda as a 115mph hurricane

Sam: Forms in the Western Caribbean October 25th and hits Honduras at peak as a 60mph TS

Teresa: Forms in the central Atlantic October 28th and peaks at 60mph

VICTOR: Forms in the Western Caribbean November 8th and peaks at 150mph in Cancun November 8th and makes another Landfall in Key West as a 100mph hurricane and gets absorbed into a Nor'easter near New England

Wanda: Forms off the east coast December 10th and peaks at 100mph making landfall in Falmouth, MA as a 75mph hurricane turning Extratropical hours later

21\11\7

[JetFuel_SE]

Heres my thoughts for 2021 with the big ones in bold

KATE: Forms in the eastern Carribean September 10th and struggles until it hits the Yucatan Channel September 12th and rapidly intesnifies as it peaks near Sarasota, FL September 13th as a 145mph hurricane and goes over water at Daytona as a 85mph Hurricane and makes another Landfall near OBX as a 100mph Hurricane and a final landfall in Halifax on September 16th as a 75mph hurricane

ROSE: Forms in the Western Caribbean October 15th and bombs out to a peak of 200mph and head to the Yucatan Channel and makes landfall in Sarasota as a 160mph hurricane and exits south of Daytona as a 120mph hurricane and makes a final landfall in Bermuda as a 115mph hurricane

Pretty sure that place hasn't had a major landfall in like 100 years. Would be pretty insane to have a C4 and a C5 make landfall there in the same year

[michelinj]

As we have Wanda in the Atlantic this season, I want a petition to have Vision as the V name in the East Pacific, so we have the smallest chance at having hurricane Wanda-Vision!!! (For any fellow marvel fans out there)

[Category5Kaiju]

Btw no need to worry about Greeks anymore, they've been scrapped. However, if we do manage to get to the aux list, Adria, Deshawn, Heath, and Jacobus seem pretty menacing

[Kazmit]

Julian and Odette

[InfernoFlameCat]

Elsa and Ana lol

[BadLarry95]

Elsa and Ana lol

If Henri and Sam get retired...
Hans and Sven anyone?

Unfortunately Kristoff will absolutely not be a replacement for Kate