When will Danny form?

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When will Danny form?

Poll ended at Tue Jun 22, 2021 12:16 pm

Rest of June
7
21%
July 1-10
15
45%
July 11-20
6
18%
July 21-31
4
12%
August
1
3%
 
Total votes: 33

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Ryxn
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When will Danny form?

#1 Postby Ryxn » Tue Jun 15, 2021 11:42 am

We'll likely see a weak Claudette by the end of the week but MDR Danny is not looking so hot at the moment. Will June be able to squeeze in another storm or 2 or will Danny be a July baby? If June manages to birth one more tropical storm after Claudette, it will become the first June to feature 3 named storms in 53 years tying 1886, 1909, 1936, and 1968 as the most active June. If 94L somehow develops down the line (a la Bret 2017) and we get Elsa off the East Coast in late June (a la Bill '21/Edouard '20), June 2021 will become the most active June on record with 4 named storms and Elsa will freeze over the previous earliest 5th named storm record from last year's Edouard.

What are your thoughts on Danny?
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Re: When will Danny form?

#2 Postby CyclonicFury » Tue Jun 15, 2021 11:51 am

I'll wait until Claudette forms first to answer this question.
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Re: When will Danny form?

#3 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 15, 2021 12:17 pm

Made the question as a poll that will be open for voting until June 22 at 1:16 PM EDT.
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Re: When will Danny form?

#4 Postby AnnularCane » Tue Jun 15, 2021 6:42 pm

I'll go with Danny being a July baby, but very tentatively, knowing how quickly storms can pop up almost out of nowhere (hi Bill! 8-)), and because of that will go with early July. This is regardless of whether 92L becomes Claudette or not.
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Re: When will Danny form?

#5 Postby aspen » Sun Jun 20, 2021 7:49 am

With models hinting at a potent AEW emerging off the coast next weekend and possibly another CAG setup at the end of the month, it’s possible one of them becomes Danny either at the very end of June or first few days of July. I’m going with the latter.
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Re: When will Danny form?

#6 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Jun 20, 2021 8:56 am

Models are indicating some CAG setup in the WCAR and the GFS (at least very recently) showed an MDR system that actually went below 1000 mbar. This isn't the first time both systems have been vaguely hinted at, so it's definitely something to watch. I personally think getting Danny in late June is quite possible, and I may go further and even say that there is a non-zero chance that we get Elsa too.
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