Tropical Wave SW of the Cabo Verde Islands (Is Invest 97L)

[Shell Mound]

Since the system is already out there and models are bullish, I believe this thread is acceptable:

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1409138626282283012



 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1409140619839221764



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1409142440649441284

[aspen]

Maybe this’ll get tagged at 2pm. Even the models that have barely shown 95L have been a little more generous to this wave (future 97L). Being at a low latitude, it’ll remain in warmer SSTs than 95L and potentially stay away from SAL. However, there’s also a possibility that it runs into South America and fails to develop.

[ElectricStorm]

This will be one to watch for sure. With it being so far south it might have trouble generating enough spin for a while but that should change as it moves west. I would guess this will get highlighted at the next TWO, and invested shortly after.

One thing is for sure, even of none of these waves develop, these June waves this year have been impressive for this time of year.

[Ubuntwo]

Model support is quite strong.



12z EURO:


12z EPS (these are a mix of 95L and this wave, the most intense members in the Carib are the latter.):


12z GFS:

[Ubuntwo]

12z EPS has a cluster (15%) of very intense members that make it into the Gulf/pose a US threat, fantasyland.

[Cpv17]

12z EPS has a cluster (15%) of very intense members that make it into the Gulf/pose a US threat, fantasyland.
https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/289981599448039425/858797725759307776/eps_mslp_rings_gulf_276.png?width=901&height=676

95L had a strong EPS signal a few days ago that quickly went away. What makes this one so different? This signal could fade quickly as well.

[aspen]

This is the third consecutive wave in the last week or so that either tried to develop or has had at least a decent chance of development…and it’s only late June. Imagine what things will be like in JAS when the entire MDR is above 27C, and VP anomalies and shear are favorable.

[Ubuntwo]

95L had a strong EPS signal a few days ago that quickly went away. What makes this one so different? This signal could fade quickly as well.

95L also has a strong EPS reflection this 12z, paralleling earlier runs. It's fairly common for waves to fluctuate in model support as data acquisition can be limited.

[aspen]

The HWRF likes this way more than 95L. For the last day, in every single HWRF run of 95L, it switches focus to this wave and sometimes develops it into a mid-grade TS by 126 hours.

EDIT: looking at the 12z HWRF-P, it almost looks like 95L gets a bit entangled with future 97L, which eventually wins out. It is also low enough where it remains in 27-28C SSTs throughout its entire trek to the islands.

[Nimbus]

95L is moistening the environment and if this new feature is lower latitude and picking up moisture from the ITCZ I think it could be the feature to watch soon.

[aspen]

Still no lemon at 8pm.

[AJC3]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Sun Jun 27 2021

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is near 18W from 15N southward. This wave is
identifiable from satellite imagery, tropical wave diagnostics,
and the Hovmoler diagram. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 00N-11N between 18W-27W.

[AlphaToOmega]

If this does end up being more of a low-rider than Invest 95L, it would have a good shot of development; it would be over warmer waters and possibly more humid air. On the other hand, being so close to the Equator, the only marginal Coriolis Effect could hinder this system's chance of development. With that being said, there have been very intense low-riders in the past. Because it is only June/July, a minimal hurricane is likely what this system will become at most.

[AnnularCane]

If the models start losing interest in THIS wave and liking the one behind this one, well...wake me in August.

[Cpv17]

If the models start losing interest in THIS wave and liking the one behind this one, well...wake me in August.

This is exactly how I feel too.

[Category5Kaiju]

If this does end up being more of a low-rider than Invest 95L, it would have a good shot of development; it would be over warmer waters and possibly more humid air. On the other hand, being so close to the Equator, the only marginal Coriolis Effect could hinder this system's chance of development. With that being said, there have been very intense low-riders in the past. Because it is only June/July, a minimal hurricane is likely what this system will become at most.

I think for now intensity is still a factor that cannot really be known for sure, but while I would think that with it being June/July would mean that this storm would not become anything crazy, I still think we should keep an eye on how it behaves as weirder stuff have happened in the past. Maybe I am being too overcautious, but we'll see.

[abajan]

Still no mention in the 2 AM TWO. But I think it'll be lemoned in the 8 AM one.

[aspen]

Still no mention in the 2 AM TWO. But I think it'll be lemoned in the 8 AM one.

Somehow still no lemon.

The 00z HWRF-P makes this a moderate TS around midweek. Assuming 95L becomes Danny and this wave develops, it would beat out last year’s Edouard for the earliest 5th named Atlantic storm.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z GFS now develops this system into a moderate tropical storm in the eastern Caribbean.

[abajan]

Still not added to the TWO. Maybe at 8 PM.