2021 Tropical Waves Thread

[Aric Dunn]

Convection on the increase, Marginal short term/Long term models support. Besides SAL far to the north, the environment for the next 48 hours looks good. Afterward, western carrib development appears to be a decent probability.

[Ivanhater]

Watching this closely. Just don't be anywhere near Orlando July 5-11 while I'm on vacation

This looks to be a bit before that time though. GFS has been consistent on development.

[Aric Dunn]

Watching this closely. Just don't be anywhere near Orlando July 5-11 while I'm on vacation

This looks to be a bit before that time though. GFS has been consistent on development.

Euro and the EPS have been showing this developing before the islands as well.

[Kingarabian]

Possible we see something similar or stronger than Cindy 2017.


For development, main thing it deepens a little as it enters the Caribbean so it' can gain some latitude. Or else it can easily crash into CA, develop over the BOC, and into western Mexico. Also possible it doesn't get deep enough and ends up in the EPAC where it could die or develop later on.

[Aric Dunn]

There is a distinct possibility we see this first spin up in the next couple of days prior to entering the carrib.

Before sunset there was a clear low level vort max and now there is a developing burst of deep convection right over it.

Shear is low and its in a deep moisture pouch.

If it does develop before the islands. it would possibly weaken until western carrib.

[Aric Dunn]

New ASCAT. Several WSW wind barbs. For a small system that is pretty good for ASCAT. .. Marcos last year ASCAT had real hard time closing it off.. Convection appears to be increasing in intensity and slowly expanding.. if that occurs throughout the night tomorrow will be interesting.

[cycloneye]

[Stormybajan]

New ASCAT. Several WSW wind barbs. For a small system that is pretty good for ASCAT. .. Marcos last year ACAT had real hard time closing it off.. Convection appears to be increasing in intensity and slowly expanding.. if that occurs throughout the night tomorrow will be interesting.

https://i.ibb.co/G7WjpFC/Capture.png

Hmmmmmm interesting indeed, its certainly trying with the burst of convection occurring right now maybe if the 00z model runs show development or increase in vorticity maybe we get a yellow X tomorrow?

[Kingarabian]

Could see development later on in the run but looks to be more CA interaction so far:

[Hurricaneman]

Could see development later on in the run but looks to be more CA interaction so far:
https://i.postimg.cc/02ggLKBF/image.png

I’m wondering if this is ex94L

[Aric Dunn]

Could see development later on in the run but looks to be more CA interaction so far:
https://i.postimg.cc/02ggLKBF/image.png

I’m wondering if this is ex94L

it is not 94L ..

and development in western carrib would not be a CAG setup.

and development before islands is looking like a pretty good possibility right now... especially if convection continues through the night and tomorrow.

[Nancy Smar]

ABNT20 KNHC 210531
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Claudette, located inland over North Carolina.

A tropical wave located about 1000 miles east of the Windward
Islands is producing a small area of thunderstorm activity. This
system has a slight chance of development during the next couple of
days before upper-level winds become less conducive for further
organization by Thursday. The wave is expected to move westward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

[Stormybajan]

New ASCAT. Several WSW wind barbs. For a small system that is pretty good for ASCAT. .. Marcos last year ACAT had real hard time closing it off.. Convection appears to be increasing in intensity and slowly expanding.. if that occurs throughout the night tomorrow will be interesting.

https://i.ibb.co/G7WjpFC/Capture.png

Hmmmmmm interesting indeed, its certainly trying with the burst of convection occurring right now maybe if the 00z model runs show development or increase in vorticity maybe we get a yellow X tomorrow?

Yellow X it is 10-10 shot for our tiny guy

[USTropics]

Here is a rough estimate of observed tropical waves in the ATL/EPAC and their progression over the next 192 hours (first image has outlined ITCZ in green):

[USTropics]

00z CMC briefly closes this off in 30 hours:

[catskillfire51]

Euro does as well at 48hrs

00z CMC briefly closes this off in 30 hours:

https://i.imgur.com/cdXFCiu.png

[Nancy Smar]

GENESIS007, AL, L, , , , , 77, 2021, DB, O, 2021062106, 9999999999, , 007, , , , GENESIS, , AL772021

[cycloneye]

GENESIS007, AL, L, , , , , 77, 2021, DB, O, 2021062106, 9999999999, , 007, , , , GENESIS, , AL772021

Invest comming soon.

[aspen]

This actually looks pretty good. If it does form, we’ll have to watch out for sudden RI due to its small size, perhaps similar to Beryl, Dorian, and the previous Danny. The NHC says it’ll be within conditions favorable for development until Thursday, which could be enough time for this to become a decent TS.

We might have to watch what it does beyond the Lesser Antilles. Is this the wave that helps spawn the WCar/Gulf system the GFS has been showing for the last few days?

[catskillfire51]

Yes it is.

This actually looks pretty good. If it does form, we’ll have to watch out for sudden RI due to its small size, perhaps similar to Beryl, Dorian, and the previous Danny. The NHC says it’ll be within conditions favorable for development until Thursday, which could be enough time for this to become a decent TS.

We might have to watch what it does beyond the Lesser Antilles. Is this the wave that helps spawn the WCar/Gulf system the GFS has been showing for the last few days?