2021 Cyclones Retirement: Ida -> Imani
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- Professional-Met
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Re: 2021 Cyclones Retirement
What I estimate the retirement likelihood by name:
Ana - 0%
Bill - 0%
Claudette - 2%
Danny - 0%
Elsa - 5%
Fred - 3%
Grace - 20%
Henri - 3%
Ida - 100%
Julian - 0%
Kate - 0%
Larry - 10%
Mindy - 0%
Nicholas - 3%
Odette - 0%
Peter - 0%
Rose - 0%
Sam - 2%
Teresa - 0%
Victor - 0%
Wanda - 2%
Ana - 0%
Bill - 0%
Claudette - 2%
Danny - 0%
Elsa - 5%
Fred - 3%
Grace - 20%
Henri - 3%
Ida - 100%
Julian - 0%
Kate - 0%
Larry - 10%
Mindy - 0%
Nicholas - 3%
Odette - 0%
Peter - 0%
Rose - 0%
Sam - 2%
Teresa - 0%
Victor - 0%
Wanda - 2%
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- Category5Kaiju
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Re: 2021 Cyclones Retirement
In my opinion, this will be the one storm most remembered from the 2021 season, and a legendary one too (sixth costliest Atlantic TC, nearly hit New Orleans directly, Cat 4 CONUS landfall, inflicted plentiful damage in the Northeast).
Inga, Ivy, Imogen, Ivory, or Ina I feel will be the WMO's choice for replacement, with my personal favorite for replacement being Imogen.
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Re: 2021 Cyclones Retirement
"Rai" will probably be retired from the WPac lists. It will be the first replacement of a replacement name to get retired there (after Rananim and Fanapi).
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- Tropical Depression
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Re: 2021 Cyclones Retirement
Ida is the only name from either Atlantic or East Pacific that warrant retirement.
As for West Pacific, in my opinion only 3 names are deserving of retirement: In-fa, Kompasu, and Rai. In Philippines, Odette definitely is a goner too, while Jolina is a good possibility.
As for West Pacific, in my opinion only 3 names are deserving of retirement: In-fa, Kompasu, and Rai. In Philippines, Odette definitely is a goner too, while Jolina is a good possibility.
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Re: 2021 Cyclones Retirement
Chances of retirement for Atlantic names:
Ana: 0.1%
Bill: 0.1%
Claudette: 3.0%
Danny: 0.1%
Elsa: 20.0%
Fred: 15.0%
Grace: 8.0%
Henri: 25.0%
Ida: 99.9%
Julian: 0.1%
Kate: 0.1%
Larry: 50.0%
Mindy: 0.1%
Nicholas: 1.5%
Odette: 0.1%
Peter: 0.1%
Rose: 0.1%
Sam: 0.2%
Teresa: 0.1%
Victor: 0.1%
Wanda: 5.0%
Ana: 0.1%
Bill: 0.1%
Claudette: 3.0%
Danny: 0.1%
Elsa: 20.0%
Fred: 15.0%
Grace: 8.0%
Henri: 25.0%
Ida: 99.9%
Julian: 0.1%
Kate: 0.1%
Larry: 50.0%
Mindy: 0.1%
Nicholas: 1.5%
Odette: 0.1%
Peter: 0.1%
Rose: 0.1%
Sam: 0.2%
Teresa: 0.1%
Victor: 0.1%
Wanda: 5.0%
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- Category5Kaiju
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Re: 2021 Cyclones Retirement
AlphaToOmega wrote:Chances of retirement for Atlantic names:
Ana: 0.1%
Bill: 0.1%
Claudette: 3.0%
Danny: 0.1%
Elsa: 20.0%
Fred: 15.0%
Grace: 8.0%
Henri: 25.0%
Ida: 99.9%
Julian: 0.1%
Kate: 0.1%
Larry: 50.0%
Mindy: 0.1%
Nicholas: 1.5%
Odette: 0.1%
Peter: 0.1%
Rose: 0.1%
Sam: 0.2%
Teresa: 0.1%
Victor: 0.1%
Wanda: 5.0%
Personally, I'd significantly lower the chances of Larry, Nicholas, Henri, Fred, and Elsa. They did not do anywhere near the level of damage Ida did, and I'd raise Ida's chance to 100%.
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Re: 2021 Cyclones Retirement
I think Ida is the only name that really merits retirement. Elsa, Fred, and Grace were far less calamitous in the Caribbean than a number of similar systems.
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Re: 2021 Cyclones Retirement
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC and NWS products.
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Re: 2021 Cyclones Retirement
So that mean Ida will be literally the only northern hemisphere retired name out of 2021... unless there will be another surprise retirement name, which I don't see happening this year.
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- Category5Kaiju
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Re: 2021 Cyclones Retirement
NorthieStangl wrote:
So that mean Ida will be literally the only northern hemisphere retired name out of 2021... unless there will be another surprise retirement name, which I don't see happening this year.
Precisely. I mean, the EPAC has not had a retired storm since 2015 believe it or not.
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Re: 2021 Cyclones Retirement
Wasn't WMO day/the conference last week? I haven't seen any news about retirement.
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Re: 2021 Cyclones Retirement
Buck wrote:Wasn't WMO day/the conference last week? I haven't seen any news about retirement.
https://public.wmo.int/en/events/meetings/44th-session-of-hurricane-committee-hc-44-online
Interestingly, I have heard no news about requested retirements. If the United States or any other country impacted by Ida requests not to retire "Ida", would that mean the name "Ida" would not be retired?
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- Category5Kaiju
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Re: 2021 Cyclones Retirement
I believe the WMO conference is at the end of April this year.
https://public.wmo.int/en/events/meetin ... -44-online
That is my source:
Plus, I am almost certain that Ida would be retired. Not retiring Ida would be extremely unlikely imho
https://public.wmo.int/en/events/meetin ... -44-online
That is my source:
Plus, I am almost certain that Ida would be retired. Not retiring Ida would be extremely unlikely imho
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Re: 2021 Cyclones Retirement
NorthieStangl wrote:
So that mean Ida will be literally the only northern hemisphere retired name out of 2021... unless there will be another surprise retirement name, which I don't see happening this year.
I'm surprised that nobody else mentioned this, but apparently 3 PAGASA names - Jolina, Maring, and Odette - were retired and replaced in March. https://mb.com.ph/2022/03/22/pagasa-rep ... s-in-2021/
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Re: 2021 Cyclones Retirement
My opinion
Ida=99.9999%
Larry 10%
Grace 10%
Everything else = 0 %
Ida=99.9999%
Larry 10%
Grace 10%
Everything else = 0 %
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- Category5Kaiju
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Re: 2021 Cyclones Retirement
Alright, it looks like we have roughly 5-7 or so days before we find out which names get retired from the Atlantic and Pacific seasons!
*yes, I know it'll likely just be Ida, but I have to say, seeing the names of very destructive storms officially getting retired into the dustbin of history and seeing their new replacement names while discussing our thoughts on such replacement names (not to mention perhaps even making fun of them) is one of the most fun parts of tracking the tropics!
*yes, I know it'll likely just be Ida, but I have to say, seeing the names of very destructive storms officially getting retired into the dustbin of history and seeing their new replacement names while discussing our thoughts on such replacement names (not to mention perhaps even making fun of them) is one of the most fun parts of tracking the tropics!
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- Category5Kaiju
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Re: 2021 Cyclones Retirement
It's now April 25, and the 44th WMO conference has begun (it's apparently virtual). I think we should know within the next day or two.
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Re: 2021 Cyclones Retirement
Elsa has been requested to be retired by Barbados Met Service
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- Category5Kaiju
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Re: 2021 Cyclones Retirement
ouragans wrote:Elsa has been requested to be retired by Barbados Met Service
Hmm, interesting. I did a quick bit of research on Elsa, and it seems like it was the first hurricane to directly hit Barbados in 66 years (since Janet in 1955, interestingly). It also did quite a bit of damage there. So if it does get retired, a few interesting things would arise:
1. This could very well be a case like Igor or Fabian in which the hurricane alone is not extremely infamous overall for many wx enthusiasts or scientists, but it happens to impact some independent nation in the Atlantic in a manner that they have never seen before or at least seen in years, allowing them to formulate a strong argument for retirement and with the storm being one that local residents may remember for a while
2. It would be the first E name to get retired since 2015
3. It would be the first replacement name of a replacement name in the Atlantic to get retired (in other words, the third in its lineage)
4. It would be the first July storm to get its name retired since Dennis in 2005
My guesses for replacement would be Edith, Estrella, Evelyn, or Eleanor. We'll see what happens though. Honestly, I personally did not expect Elsa to even become a retirement-worthy name, but given what I have just read up about it, seems like Barbados may actually have a solid point in seeing that name gone.
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Re: 2021 Cyclones Retirement
ouragans wrote:Elsa has been requested to be retired by Barbados Met Service
Is there a source for this? It would be interesting if true but I can’t find anything verifying it.
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