Tropical Disturbance Crossing Yucatan (Is Invest 94L)

[AlphaToOmega]

The northern portion of a tropical wave over the western Caribbean
Sea is forecast to emerge over the southern Bay of Campeche on
Saturday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive to
support some gradual development of the system before it moves
into mainland Mexico early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[aspen]

Now up to 0/30. I don’t expect much from this because it’ll be too close to the coast, but it will have a few days over some very warm waters, so maybe something could spin up.

[cheezyWXguy]

Gfs has been wanting to sling a portion of this up toward the Texas coast during the last few runs. Doesn’t do much with it, but it’s possible we could get a Mindy-style spin up out of it

[Clearcloudz]

The big story with this disturbance is going to be the rainfall for middle Texas coastline. Models are showing high PWATS that could lead to instant flash flooding.

Note: 00Z EURO jumped onto the idea last night as well. Need to watch from Texas to Louisiana regardless if it develops or not.

[Wampadawg]

The latest GFS has thing’s getting interesting in the Western Gulf

[IcyTundra]

Even if it doesn't develop this will lead to a lot of rainfall all across the Texas coast next week. Flash flooding is the main threat with this imo.

[Wampadawg]

Even if it doesn't develop this will lead to a lot of rainfall all across the Texas coast next week. Flash flooding is the main threat with this imo.

Yea we will need to watch things closely here on the Texas coast

[Stormcenter]

The Gulf already looks suspicious and then you add this to the mix.....spells trouble. IMO

[wxman22]

The 12z euro is onboard.

[Landy]

Has there been any Gulf AOI that's failed to develop this year so far?

[AlphaToOmega]

Has there been any Gulf AOI that's failed to develop this year so far?

One in late May failed to develop

[IcyTundra]

Wow the EPS is all over this one. We won't have to worry about this one getting very strong and producing strong winds and surge, but I am becoming increasingly concerned about the threat for flash flooding caused by this disturbance next week.

[Clearcloudz]

Latest EURO is very concerning for Houston and surrounding regions. showing 30+ inches of rainfall in some areas.

[Clearcloudz]

Seems like EURO is showing steering around the high pressure into Texas and then as soon as it reaches Houston region steering collapses and storm stalls. What a norm this is becoming.....

Still one run and many more to come but trends are favoring a flood type setup.

[Clearcloudz]

18Z GEFS showing a increase in members compared to the 12Z run.

[AlphaToOmega]

18Z GEFS showing a increase in members compared to the 12Z run.

https://i.imgur.com/LHcyPYT.png

Based on that alone, I believe it will get code orange at the 8 PM TWO

[Wampadawg]

Latest EURO is very concerning for Houston and surrounding regions. showing 30+ inches of rainfall in some areas.

https://i.imgur.com/RFhivuW.png

Living south of Houston ,yes indeed anxiety is starting to rise

[IcyTundra]

I'm hoping this doesn't turn into another Imelda situation. Parts of SE Texas got hit hard by Imelda and it probably should have been retired imo.

[Nimbus]

Some of the ensemble models are riding up the coast close enough that the dry desert air might stay entrained.

[AlphaToOmega]

The northern portion of a tropical wave is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over northeastern Honduras and the western
Caribbean Sea. This system is forecast to move into the Bay of
Campeche and merge with a pre-existing surface trough located over
the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive to support some gradual
development, and a tropical depression could form by early next week
before the system moves inland over mainland Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.