Tropical Storm Victor has formed today. Thus, it is natural to ask when Wanda might form.
September 29-30
October 1-5
October 6-10
After October 10
The season will end with Victor
When will Wanda form?
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AlphaToOmega
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When will Wanda form?
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cycloneye
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Re: When will Wanda form?
Made the poll for the members to vote and it will be open until next Sunday at 6:48 PM EDT.
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Category5Kaiju
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Re: When will Wanda form?
Betting on that WCAR system to become Wanda; after that, looks like AlphatoOmega might need to take a short break from initiating the storm name polls as it looks like we already have a "When Will Adria form" thread.... 
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hurricanes1234
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Re: When will Wanda form?
When will Wanda form?
I wanda.
But nah, all jokes aside, I'm thinking between October 6th and October 10th. Which I believe is when the small suppressed Kelvin wave should be on its way out.
I wanda.
But nah, all jokes aside, I'm thinking between October 6th and October 10th. Which I believe is when the small suppressed Kelvin wave should be on its way out.
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ElectricStorm
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Re: When will Wanda form?
One of these days the "the season will end with *name*" option will be right.
But not this time! Oct 6-10 for me
But not this time! Oct 6-10 for me
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Boomer Sooner!
Boomer Sooner!
Re: When will Wanda form?
Starting to think ole Victor is gonna be the last one. Something just telling me the Caribbean Sea isn't gonna do what we think it's gonna do
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Category5Kaiju
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Re: When will Wanda form?
WiscoWx02 wrote:Starting to think ole Victor is gonna be the last one. Something just telling me the Caribbean Sea isn't gonna do what we think it's gonna do
I mean, development can still happen in the subtropics...
Also, just something to keep in mind, but a season (let alone a -ENSO year) having no NSs in October and November is something I am pretty sure has never happened anytime recently...
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Unless explicitly stated, all info in my posts is based on my own opinions and observations. Tropical storms and hurricanes can be extremely dangerous. Do not think you can beat Mother Nature. Refer to an accredited weather research agency or meteorologist if you need to make serious decisions regarding an approaching storm.
Re: When will Wanda form?
Voted after October 10 but I think it'll form around there, give or take a few days in either direction. we're likely in for at least a week of no new storms.
1982 and 83 (which are questionable), 1993, 2002, and 2006 are the only years during the entire satellite era where nothing formed after September. All five of those were during El Nino, and three were also during volcanically-induced decrease in activity.
Longer range models do continue developing storms into November, they just aren't likely to be the big ACE producing majors that people are expecting.
WiscoWx02 wrote:Starting to think ole Victor is gonna be the last one. Something just telling me the Caribbean Sea isn't gonna do what we think it's gonna do
1982 and 83 (which are questionable), 1993, 2002, and 2006 are the only years during the entire satellite era where nothing formed after September. All five of those were during El Nino, and three were also during volcanically-induced decrease in activity.
Longer range models do continue developing storms into November, they just aren't likely to be the big ACE producing majors that people are expecting.
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Re: When will Wanda form?
Category5Kaiju wrote:WiscoWx02 wrote:Starting to think ole Victor is gonna be the last one. Something just telling me the Caribbean Sea isn't gonna do what we think it's gonna do
I mean, development can still happen in the subtropics...
Also, just something to keep in mind, but a season (let alone a -ENSO year) having no NSs in October and November is something I am pretty sure has never happened anytime recently...
Well that's embarrassing, I totally forgot about the subtropics for a second there. Guess I'm just too hooked on this Caribbean Sea fever
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Re: When will Wanda form?
My rather bullish prediction:
After a brief lull, Wanda forms around October 8-10 or possibly later. Thanks to the CCKW boost, it quickly intensifies into a Cat 3/4 in the Western Caribbean, and either hits or narrowly misses Cuba. May or may not hit somewhere in Florida.
Another TS forms later in the MDR around mid month and people are amused how rare it is. It either gets pulled north near or east of the Bahamas (Gonzalo 2014-like track), or crashes into GA like Elsa/Fred/Grace. May become a weak hurricane somewhere.
The season ends with one more Cat 2/3 hurricane in late October or November. Takes the classic climo track for this time of the year and hit Cuba while moving NE, like Michelle or Paloma, and goes OTS afterwards.
A few weak TS or STS inbetween.
After a brief lull, Wanda forms around October 8-10 or possibly later. Thanks to the CCKW boost, it quickly intensifies into a Cat 3/4 in the Western Caribbean, and either hits or narrowly misses Cuba. May or may not hit somewhere in Florida.
Another TS forms later in the MDR around mid month and people are amused how rare it is. It either gets pulled north near or east of the Bahamas (Gonzalo 2014-like track), or crashes into GA like Elsa/Fred/Grace. May become a weak hurricane somewhere.
The season ends with one more Cat 2/3 hurricane in late October or November. Takes the classic climo track for this time of the year and hit Cuba while moving NE, like Michelle or Paloma, and goes OTS afterwards.
A few weak TS or STS inbetween.
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AlphaToOmega
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Re: When will Wanda form?
Subtropical Storm Wanda has officially formed (Halloween 00Z GMT).
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